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<title>Oil down on inflation, supply risks in Mideast, Canada lend floor</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/oil-down-on-inflation-supply-risks-in-mideast-canada-lend-floor/</link>
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<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 20:00:26 +0000</pubDate>
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<description><![CDATA[Oil down on inflation, supply risks in Mideast, Canada lend floor By Georgina McCartney HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Tuesday, after fresh U.S. data indicated inflation remains sticky, while…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Oil down on inflation, supply risks in Mideast, Canada lend floor</h1>
By Georgina McCartney
HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Tuesday, after fresh U.S. data indicated inflation remains sticky, while potential risks to supply from Mideast tensions and wildfires in Canada lent a floor to prices.
Brent crude futures dropped 98 cents to $82.38 a barrel at 01:05 p.m. ET (1705 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) lost $1.07 to $78.05 a barrel.
U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in April amid strong gains in the costs of services and goods, indicating that inflation remained elevated early in the second quarter.
Borrowing costs in the U.S. have been stuck at high levels since last July as the government aims to quash sticky inflation.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he expects U.S. inflation to continue declining through 2024 but warned his confidence in those decreases has fallen after prices rose more quickly than expected through the first quarter.
“I expect that inflation will move back down … on a monthly basis to levels that were more like the lower readings that we were having last year”, Powell said at a banking event in Amsterdam, adding, “I would say my confidence in that is not as high as it was.”
“The inflation story is not under control that is pulling demand back a bit and the thing that rubbed a little salt in the wound was Powell’s comments”, said Tim Snyder, economist at Matador Economics.
U.S. consumer price data, expected on Wednesday, will have a sharper impact on the timing of the much-awaited rate cut, which could spur economic growth and therefore oil demand.
Meanwhile on Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and said there was a chance the world economy could do better than expected this year.
OPEC’s monthly report said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025.
Energy markets were also watching wildfires in remote western Canada that could disrupt the country’s oil supply, and in turn buoy prices.
Firefighters on Monday were racing to contain one blaze in British Columbia and two in Alberta near the heart of the country’s oil sands industry.
Canada has a 3.3 million barrel per day (bpd) production capacity, and is a key supplier of heavier crude.
“Spreading wildfires in Alberta oil sands impose downside risks to our constructive Canada production outlook as massive fires in the same region eight years ago triggered a temporary shutdown of over 1 million bpd oil production,” said Goldman Sachs analysts in a note.
Meanwhile, ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to pose a threat to crude supply, and could be lending a floor to prices as economic concerns apply downward pressure.
Israeli tanks pushed deeper into eastern Rafah on Tuesday, reaching some residential districts of the southern border city where more than a million people had been sheltering.
“Uncertainty over Rafah and the blowback from that is keeping the market on edge as well,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston; Paul Carsten and Natalie Grover in London and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Additional reporting by Colleen Howe in Beijing; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Alexandra Hudson and Ros Russell)
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<item>
<title>King Charles unveils his first portrait since coronation</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/king-charles-unveils-his-first-portrait-since-coronation/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[jcp]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 19:49:56 +0000</pubDate>
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<description><![CDATA[King Charles unveils his first portrait since coronation (Changes media identifier to correspond with visuals) LONDON (Reuters) -Britain’s King Charles on Tuesday unveiled the first official portrait of himself since…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>King Charles unveils his first portrait since coronation</h1>
(Changes media identifier to correspond with visuals)
LONDON (Reuters) -Britain’s King Charles on Tuesday unveiled the first official portrait of himself since his coronation last May.
The portrait by artist Jonathan Yeo depicts Charles against a background of vivid red hues, wearing the uniform of the Welsh Guards military unit, with a butterfly just above his shoulder.
“Much like the butterfly I’ve painted hovering over his shoulder, this portrait has evolved as the subject’s role in our public life has transformed,” Yeo, 53, who has previously painted Charles’ late father Prince Philip, said in a statement.
“My aim was also to make reference to the traditions of Royal portraiture but in a way that reflects a 21st Century Monarchy and, above all else, to communicate the subject’s deep humanity.”
The portrait unveiled at Buckingham Palace was commissioned in 2020 to celebrate the then Prince of Wales’s 50 years as a member of the grant-giving body, The Drapers’ Company, in 2022, the palace said.
Yeo’s past subjects have included British broadcaster and naturalist David Attenborough, Oscar-winning actor Nicole Kidman and former Prime Minister Tony Blair.
The oil on canvas artwork, which measures about 8-1/2 by 6-1/2 feet, is expected to be displayed at Drapers’ Hall in the City of London – the capital’s financial district – from the end of August, the palace said.
(Reporting by Muvija MEditing by Ros Russell)
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<title>Factbox-How hosting Euro 2024 could impact the German economy</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/factbox-how-hosting-euro-2024-could-impact-the-german-economy/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[jcp]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 18:27:30 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
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<description><![CDATA[Factbox-How hosting Euro 2024 could impact the German economy By Rene Wagner BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany will be hoping for sporting success as host of the 2024 Euros soccer championship…]]></description>
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By Rene Wagner
BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany will be hoping for sporting success as host of the 2024 Euros soccer championship kicking off in a month’s time, but it will also be looking for a consumption boost from all the fans guzzling beer and staying in hotels and rented rooms.
Europe’s largest economy is expected to grow around 0.3% this year, slower than other large industrialised countries. The following is an overview of how the tournament could give it a welcome boost.
WHO CAN HOPE FOR BETTER BUSINESS?
There are 2.7 million tickets available for the four-week event from June 14 to July 14. The hosting venues Berlin, Munich, Cologne, Dortmund, Duesseldorf, Frankfurt, Gelsenkirchen, Hamburg, Leipzig and Stuttgart can expect a rush of domestic and foreign guests.
“People are more active when it comes to travelling, for example going to major events and concerts by international stars,” said Norbert Kunz, Managing Director of the German Tourism Association (DTV).
“It could well be that 2024 will be a new record year for tourism in Germany – also thanks to the many enthusiastic football fans who want to experience this event live.” Breweries can also expect a boost.
“Large football events in the past have shown that more beer is drunk during the tournament than is normal in the summer weeks,” said Holger Eichele of the German Brewers Association. During the 2006 World Cup, which Germany also hosted, beer sales rose around 5% before and during the tournament.
That would be especially welcome as 2023 was a difficult year for the beer industry, with sales in the country falling by 4.5% to 8.4 billion litres, continuing a long-term downtrend, according to government data.
WILL THE TOURNAMENT CREATE A CONSUMPTION BOOM? “The experience of the World Cup in 2006 shows that major sporting events are not economic fireworks,” said Michael Groemling of the German Economic Institute (IW).
Many consumers are likely to use the tournament as an opportunity to buy a new television or drink an extra beer.
“But they save money elsewhere: bratwurst instead of a restaurant, a TV evening instead of going to the cinema,” said Groemling. “As a result, consumer spending is not necessarily increasing but rather shifting.”
Commerzbank economists say the economy could stagnate in the second quarter – which includes the first half of the tournament – after growing by 0.2% from January to March. WHO ELSE COULD BENEFIT?
Retail sales could receive a consumption boost if the home team does well on the pitch, said a spokesperson for the industry association HDE.
“Only if the German national team survives the first phase of the tournament can consumer sentiment also benefit,” the spokesperson said. Grocery stores tend to do well during major sporting events as fans stock up on drinks and food while watching together.
The booking portal AirBnB expects the Euros to provide an additional tailwind for the rental of holiday apartments.
The advertising space marketer Stroeer also expects a boost, as well as sporting goods manufacturer Adidas. World market leader Nike has nine teams under contract at the European Championships, Adidas six and Puma four.
WHAT ABOUT GERMANY’S IMAGE?
“A major sporting event can brighten the mood and improve the image of the host country,” said the IW’s Groemling, speaking about its allure at a time when foreign direct investment into the country has fallen.
“At the same time, the economy is shaped by expectations and moods – the emotional return from the EM should not be underestimated.”
 
(Reporting by Rene Wagner; Writing by Matthias Williams; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
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<title>Analysis-Recovering euro keeps dollar ‘gorilla’ from scuppering ECB rate outlook</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/analysis-recovering-euro-keeps-dollar-gorilla-from-scuppering-ecb-rate-outlook/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[jcp]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 18:13:32 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://brandsjournal.com/?p=25242</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Analysis-Recovering euro keeps dollar ‘gorilla’ from scuppering ECB rate outlook By Amanda Cooper and Stefano Rebaudo LONDON/MILAN (Reuters) – The euro has resisted falling to parity with the dollar for…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Analysis-Recovering euro keeps dollar ‘gorilla’ from scuppering ECB rate outlook</h1>
By Amanda Cooper and Stefano Rebaudo
LONDON/MILAN (Reuters) – The euro has resisted falling to parity with the dollar for now, thanks to a rosier economic backdrop, to the relief of European Central Bank policymakers who could be struggling to detach themselves from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Just a month ago, the euro’s fall to five-month lows prompted some talk among analysts about a return to parity against the dollar as the fragility of the euro zone contrasted with a resilient U.S. economy that boosted the dollar and prompted investors to dial back Federal Reserve rate cut bets.
Lower euro area interest rates than those in the United States remain a headwind, but the euro seems on a stronger footing thanks in part to an improving macro backdrop.
The most recent round of purchasing manager surveys, for example, showed business activity in the euro zone expanded at a faster clip than that in the United States in April for the first time in a year.
That has helped the euro recover roughly 1.7% from April’s lows to around $1.0708.
“We’re starting to see that divergence between economic performance close, offering some help to the euro,” said Fiona Cincotta, market strategist at City Index.
“That is also a cause for relief for the ECB and a reason for them to be more relaxed as well. It’s almost as if their ducks have lined up quite nicely so far.”
Citi’s economic surprise index for the euro zone has trended lower in recent weeks, but at 27, is comfortably in positive territory, as business activity and growth improve. In contrast, the U.S. index has fallen below zero for the first time since early 2023, as crucial data such as growth and employment have missed expectations.
On a trade-weighted basis, the euro is up 0.5% this year and not far from 2023’s record highs. A lot of this is down to weakness in the likes of the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen.
That offers a less negative picture on the euro than purely looking through the lens of the dollar in that it neutralises some imported inflation.
GORILLA IN THE ROOM
Still, a sustained drop in the euro could boost import prices and rekindle inflation, thereby limiting the ECB’s scope to cut rates.
The euro has lost around 2.5% against the dollar this year and the ECB, which does not target an exchange rate, cannot easily ignore more weakness.
“To a certain extent, our data and decisions are naturally influenced by the Fed. We are not working in a vacuum. With the dollar, the Fed is, figuratively speaking, the gorilla in the room,” Austrian central bank Governor Robert Holzmann told Handelsblatt in an interview published on May 8.
Other factors such as a spike in the oil price, or a deterioration in geopolitical tensions could undermine the euro area by again hurting the growth outlook and magnifying the inflationary effect of a weaker currency.
Right now, markets show traders believe the ECB will deliver three quarter-point cuts, bringing the benchmark rate to around 3.25% by year end. The Fed is expected to cut just twice, to a range of 4.75-5.25%, leaving the premium of U.S. rates over euro zone ones at 175 basis points.
Some analysts think three cuts from the ECB and no cuts from the Fed this year, bringing the gap to 213 bps, might tip the euro back to parity, which could sound alarm bells at the ECB if currency weakness threatens to fuel inflation.
The euro last hit parity around August 2022, when the rate gap between the two central bank rates was 238 bps.
“If the market prices out Fed rate cuts for this year and pushes the cuts later into next year and the ECB pricing remains at the current levels, parity becomes a possibility and such a move would be enough to make the ECB delay its easing cycle,” Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of G10 forex research at BofA, said.
Neil Mehta, a portfolio manager at BlueBay Asset Management, said the currency market was where the divergence in interest rates would play out most clearly, with the dollar emerging as the likely winner, with parity for the euro, a possibility.
“It’s not the base case, but we certainly see the risks tilted in that direction. We think the first step is $1.05,” he said.
 
(Additional reporting by Yoruk Bahceli in Amsterdam; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
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<title>Countries make late bid to salvage EU’s nature law</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/countries-make-late-bid-to-salvage-eus-nature-law/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[jcp]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 18:02:08 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://brandsjournal.com/?p=25237</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Countries make late bid to salvage EU’s nature law By Kate Abnett BRUSSELS (Reuters) – A group of 11 countries, led by Ireland, has made a last-ditch attempt to approve…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Countries make late bid to salvage EU’s nature law</h1>
By Kate Abnett
BRUSSELS (Reuters) – A group of 11 countries, led by Ireland, has made a last-ditch attempt to approve the EU’s flagship policy to restore damaged nature, amid concerns the law could be shelved following EU elections in June.
The law would be among the EU’s biggest environmental policies, requiring countries to introduce measures restoring nature on a fifth of their land and sea by 2030.
EU countries had planned to approve the policy in March, but called off the vote after Hungary unexpectedly withdrew its support to wipe out the slim majority in favour.
“Restoring ecosystems is essential to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, and to safeguard European food security,” the 11 countries said in a letter to other EU countries’ environment ministers, published on Tuesday.
“Our failure as EU leaders to act now would fundamentally undermine public faith in our political leadership,” they said.
The letter was signed by Cyprus, Czech Republic, France, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Spain.
EU countries and lawmakers agreed a deal last year, but some have warned it would impose burdensome rules on industries. Farmers have staged protests across Europe over issues including strict EU regulations.
EU diplomats said on Tuesday no country had changed its position on the law since March – leaving member states deadlocked.
Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden oppose the nature policy, while Austria, Belgium, Finland and Poland intend to abstain. The other EU member states support the policy.
“We need one country,” one EU diplomat said.
The 11 countries suggested putting forward the law for approval at a meeting of environment ministers on June 17. The European Parliament has already approved it.
That would be days after the European Parliament election – which EU officials suggested could give countries the political breathing room to support the law.
Polls suggest the election will yield an EU Parliament comprising more right-wing parties sceptical of environmental policies.
 
(Reporting by Kate Abnett, editing by Ed Osmond)
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<title>Mixed UK labour market signals leave BoE on rate cut alert</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/mixed-uk-labour-market-signals-leave-boe-on-rate-cut-alert/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[jcp]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 17:52:28 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://brandsjournal.com/?p=25232</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Mixed UK labour market signals leave BoE on rate cut alert By Suban Abdulla LONDON (Reuters) – British wages grew by more than expected, according to data published on Tuesday,…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Mixed UK labour market signals leave BoE on rate cut alert</h1>
By Suban Abdulla
LONDON (Reuters) – British wages grew by more than expected, according to data published on Tuesday, but other figures suggested the labour market is losing some of its inflationary heat, keeping the Bank of England on alert about when to cut interest rates.
Regular wages, excluding bonuses, rose by 6.0% in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast growth of 5.9%, slowing from 6.0% in the three months to February.
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said the labour market remained tight by historical standards but the central bank could consider cutting rates over the summer.
Sterling weakened after Pill’s comments, but investors kept their bets on future BoE rate cuts largely unchanged with the chance of a first reduction in June priced at around 50-50.
The Office for National Statistics said total pay, which includes more volatile bonus payments, rose by 5.7%, above economists’ expectations of 5.5%.
Private sector regular pay, a key metric for the BoE, eased slightly to 5.9%, a touch below the BoE’s most recent forecast.
Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there were other signs that the pressure on wages was on course to ease.
“Much as we have concerns over the jobs data, the labour market keeps gradually easing, and they give the Monetary Policy Committee a hook to hang a June rate cut on,” Wood said.
Other analysts suggested a longer wait.
Jack Kennedy, senior economist at jobs platform Indeed, said the hotter-than-expected wage data “casts doubt on a June interest rate cut and will support the case for policymakers waiting for more evidence.”
Finance minister Jeremy Hunt, who is trying to help Prime Minister Rishi Sunak rein in the opposition Labour Party’s opinion poll lead before an election this year, pointed to how wages were outstripping inflation.
“This is the 10th month in a row that wages have risen faster than inflation which will help with the cost of living pressures on families,” Hunt said in a statement.
RATE CUT DEBATE
The BoE last week signalled that it could start cutting rates from their current 16-year high of 5.25% as early as its meeting next month.
Tuesday’s figures were the first of two official labour market data releases before the central bank’s June 20 monetary policy announcement.
Despite the stubbornly strong pay growth, there were signs that Britain’s labour market was cooling.
The ONS said the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest since the three months to July 2023, although it cautioned that the survey from which the jobless rate is calculated is still being overhauled.
Vacancies fell for the 22nd time in a row in the three months to April, dropping by 26,000 from the November-to-January period.
Roisin Currie, CEO of baker and fast food retailer Greggs which employs 32,000 people, told Reuters that vacancy numbers were the lowest they have been for two years. But she still expected the labour market to remain tough for employers “for at least another couple of years.”
An increase in Britain’s minimum wage, which rose by 9.8% to 11.44 pounds ($14.32) an hour last month, has put pressure on some employers to reduce hiring or increase prices.
Hunt has cut social security contributions for workers and is tightening welfare to try to get more people into employment.
However, Britain’s inactivity rate – measuring people not in work and not looking for employment – rose to 22.1%, close to its highest since mid-2022.
($1 = 0.7989 pounds)
 
(Reporting by Suban Abdulla, additional reporting by James Davey; Editing by William Schomberg, Kate Holton and Christina Fincher)
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<title>World shares rest near record highs ahead of US inflation data</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/world-shares-rest-near-record-highs-ahead-of-us-inflation-data/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[jcp]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 17:31:43 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://brandsjournal.com/?p=25227</guid>
<description><![CDATA[World shares rest near record highs ahead of US inflation data By Tom Westbrook and Alun John SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) – World shares marked time on Tuesday, holding just shy of…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>World shares rest near record highs ahead of US inflation data</h1>
By Tom Westbrook and Alun John
SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) – World shares marked time on Tuesday, holding just shy of record highs ahead of highly anticipated U.S. inflation data, while Japanese bonds were squeezed as the central bank pulled back a little on its bond buying programme.
MSCI’s world share index was flat on the day but remained around 0.3% below mid-March’s all time high. National and region-wide share benchmarks in Europe, many at or around record territory, were steady, as were U.S. S&P 500 futures. [.EU]
A broadly positive first quarter-earnings season has helped stock markets in recent weeks, but investors this week have been cautious ahead of important U.S. inflation data.
The U.S. producer price index due at 1230 GMT is Tuesday’s main macroeconomic event, though it will likely be overshadowed by Wednesday’s consumer inflation numbers, one of the major data points of the month.
“Today’s a warm up, but tomorrow’s U.S. CPI is what people are waiting for,” said Jan von Gerich, chief strategist at Nordea.
Expectations are for core CPI to slow from an annual 3.8% in March to 3.6% for April. Investors will be watching to see whether some upside surprises in the first quarter were a blip or a worrying trend that could force the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated throughout this year.
“I think that expectations (for hotter inflation) have risen and so it will be hard to beat them. You’ve had three upside surprises in a row and so if we come in line with expectations, then rates will fall,” von Gerich said.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was last at 4.479%, flat on the day, down from mid-April’s five-month high of 4.739%, but still sharply up from the 3.899% at which it started the year.
A survey released on Monday by the New York Fed showed Americans see inflation a year from now at 3.3%, higher than they did a month earlier.
British government bonds, or gilts, slightly outperformed European peers after data showing British wages grew by more than expected, but other figures suggested the labour market was losing some inflationary heat.
The British 10-year yield was a fraction lower at 4.17%, Germany’s was around 2 basis points higher at 2.52%. [GB/] [GVD/EUR]
In company news, Delivery Hero soared 23%, on track for its biggest one-day gain, after Uber announced a $1.25 billion deal to take over its foodpanda food delivery business in Taiwan and buy new shares in the German firm.
Anglo American laid out a strategy update that includes exploring options for its steelmaking coal, nickel and platinum businesses, as it fends off a takeover bid from BHP.
Also still to come on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak at 1400 GMT.
HANG SENG SURGES
U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday unveiled a bundle of steep tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports including electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products.
The announcement came after market close in China, but U.S.-listed shares of Chinese EV makers Li Auto and Xpeng slid 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively, in premarket trading. [.N]
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 30% from January’s lows and has surged nearly 20% in a month as money has flowed in steadily from mainland buyers. [.SS]
Investors have welcomed news China will issue one trillion yuan in special bonds as a harbinger of spending, while weak lending data also shows monetary easing is reaching its limit. Hang Seng volumes last week were the largest in 17 months.
“Some of my clients are asking me every day what to buy, when to buy because they still have an underweight position in Hong Kong stocks,” said Steven Leung, executive director at brokerage UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.
“I think this situation can continue for a while.”
Also catching the eye in Asia, benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yields rose two basis points to 0.96%, the highest yield since November, a day after Japan’s central bank unexpectedly cut the amount of bonds it offered to buy in a regular purchase operation. [JP/]
The gap with U.S. yields, however, remains hundreds of basis points and wide enough to keep the frail yen under pressure.
The yen traded as soft as 156.4 to the dollar. The euro was steady at $1.0797. [FRX/]
Brent crude futures were down 0.2% $83.18 a barrel and spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,342 an ounce. [O/R] [GOL/]
 
(Editing by Bernadette Baum and Mark Potter)
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<title>Curbs on costly home incentives cause split in Italy’s coalition</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/curbs-on-costly-home-incentives-cause-split-in-italys-coalition/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[jcp]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 17:01:31 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://brandsjournal.com/?p=25222</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Curbs on costly home incentives cause split in Italy’s coalition By Giuseppe Fonte and Angelo Amante ROME (Reuters) – Italy’s ruling coalition was divided on Tuesday over the approval of…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Curbs on costly home incentives cause split in Italy’s coalition</h1>
By Giuseppe Fonte and Angelo Amante
ROME (Reuters) – Italy’s ruling coalition was divided on Tuesday over the approval of new curbs on costly incentives for home renovations, with the moderate Forza Italia party refusing to back the Treasury plan, saying it would harm banks and business.
The government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni failed to curtail the incentives passed under previous successive administrations, which have cost the state more than 219 billion euros ($236.39 billion) in less than four years and have placed a heavy burden on Italy’s creaking finances.
The most generous incentive, the so-called Superbonus, allowed homeowners to deduct the cost of energy-saving work from their taxes over a four-10 year period, or use the tax credit as a form of payment when dealing with builders or banks.
Under a plan championed by Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, a leading figure in the co-ruling League party, the impact of tax credits stemming from the Superbonus scheme would be spread over 10 years. The provision retroactively applies to payments incurred since January.
Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, leader of Forza Italia, is pushing to ease the curbs and said his party would not back the plan if Giorgetti refused to change it.
“Without changes, our party will vote against,” Tajani said.
As a crucial vote to renew the European Union parliament scheduled for June looms, Tajani is seen siding with business and banks which have complained the retroactive nature of the plan could devalue part of the tax credits they had already taken as payment.
The amendment also rules that lenders who have bought tax credits will have to use them to cut their tax bills over six years from 2025 onwards. The measure does not apply to banks that have purchased credits at 75% of their face value or more.
Moreover, starting from next January, banks and insurance and financial service companies will no longer be allowed to use tax credits to offset payments of social security contributions.
The new curbs are designed to allow Italy to restore its stricter deficit targets for the next two years, which were set in September.
At the time, the government promised to cut the fiscal gap to 3.6% of GDP in 2025 from 4.3% this year, and to 2.9% in 2026. Under current trends, the deficit is seen by the Treasury slightly higher at 3.7% next year and 3% in 2026.
 
(Editing by Nick Macfie)
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<title>Dollar slips after unexpected rise in US producer prices</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/dollar-slips-after-unexpected-rise-in-us-producer-prices/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[jcp]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 16:30:21 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://brandsjournal.com/?p=25217</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Dollar slips after unexpected rise in US producer prices By Herbert Lash and Joice Alves NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar edged lower on Tuesday following an unexpected increase in U.S.…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Dollar slips after unexpected rise in US producer prices</h1>
By Herbert Lash and Joice Alves
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar edged lower on Tuesday following an unexpected increase in U.S. producer prices in April amid strong gains in the costs of goods and services, indicating inflation remained stubbornly high early in the second quarter.
The report from the Labor Department also showed wholesale goods prices rising solidly last month, though the cost of food declined. Traders trimmed their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September after the report.
The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six major peers, was down 0.12% at 105.06, while the euro rose 0.22% against the dollar to 1.0813.
The PPI data, which can be volatile, comes a day before the more important consumer price index (CPI) is released for April, data that should provide better insight into how fast the Fed might cut interest rates.
One data print will not be enough to convince policymakers that the pace of inflation is slowing, Tierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie in New York.
“It’s going to take at least three months of downside inflation to dispel the idea that we are no longer dis-inflating. So that takes a while,” Wizman said.
“We actually think the Fed may not cut at all this year and if it does cut, it’ll probably cut once and it’ll be late in the year,” he said. “If we’re starting to get a real downward move in rent inflation in the U.S., it may change our mind.”
The producer price index for final demand rose 0.5% in April after falling by a downwardly revised 0.1% in March, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.3% after a previously reported 0.2% rise in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI increased 2.2% as expected after climbing 1.8% in March.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the PPI report was more “mixed” than “hot,” given that prior data was revised lower even as April’s data came in higher than expected.
“I wouldn’t call it hot, I’d call it mixed,” Powell said at an event in Amsterdam after the report’s release.
The Fed’s restrictive monetary policy may take longer than expected to bring inflation down, “but we will get inflation back to 2%,” he also said.
Wednesday’s report on core consumer prices is expected to show CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in April, down from a 0.4% growth the prior month, according to a Reuters poll.
Money markets have dialed back their expectations of Fed rate cuts to about 44 basis points of easing this year, according to LSEG data.
Earlier in Europe, sterling fell sharply before paring losses after Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said it was not unreasonable to believe that over summer there might be enough confidence to consider rate cuts.
Sterling rose 0.17% to 1.2580 after falling to $1.2510 following Pill’s remarks.
Traders are also closely watching the yen, down to May 1 levels, which then saw suspected interventions by Japanese authorities. It was last 0.07% lower at 156.35 per dollar. Japan’s Ministry of Finance is suspected to have intervened in the currency market at the end of April through early May after the yen hit a 34-year low of 160.245 on April 29. But the market remains bearish on the currency given the massive gap between Japan’s ultra-low yields and those in other major economies. Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government will closely work with the Bank of Japan on the foreign exchange to ensure there is no friction between their mutual policy objectives. The Chinese offshore yuan was trading near a two-week low after U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled a bundle of steep tariff increases on an array of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products. The offshore yuan was last flat on the day at 7.240, after falling earlier in the day to it lowest level since May 5. China’s Commerce Ministry said the country is “strongly dissatisfied with U.S. tariff hike.”
(Reporting by Herbert Lash; Additional reporting by Joice Alves in London and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Andrew Heavens)
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<title>Morning Bid: Markets eye US CPI and record high</title>
<link>https://brandsjournal.com/morning-bid-markets-eye-us-cpi-and-record-high/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[jcp]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2024 16:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Headlines]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://brandsjournal.com/?p=25212</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Morning Bid: Markets eye US CPI and record high A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook Stocks near record highs and Bill Hwang…]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Morning Bid: Markets eye US CPI and record high</h1>
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
Stocks near record highs and Bill Hwang and Roaring Kitty in the headlines lend this week an air of deja vu ahead of U.S. inflation data.
British labour numbers, German sentiment, U.S. producer prices, an appearance from Jerome Powell and earnings releases due through Tuesday take a back seat to Wednesday’s CPI figure.
As in 2021, it’s expected to begin with a 3 and markets are trying to guess whether signs of inflation picking up were a blip or a trend. A downside surprise is likely to loosen the shackles on stock rallies in Hong Kong, London and New York.
Britain’s FTSE already stands by record highs, having touched that peak only on Friday, as did Europe’s STOXX 600 index. The S&P 500 is close to topping March’s record high.
The Hang Seng has added 20% in a rally that is entering a fourth week. Recent Chinese economic data show some steadiness but investors have found encouragement on the policy front.
Rumblings from the Politburo in the direction of property support, marketing plans for special bond sales and falling lending point to monetary policy reaching its limits and has fed expectations of spending to support the economy.
Currency markets were largely marking time ahead of the CPI release with the dollar trading firmly and pushing the yen to its weakest since it was swinging wildly at the start of May, when traders reckoned Japanese authorities had intervened.
GameStop and other so-called meme stocks soared Monday after flag bearer Roaring Kitty – real name Keith Gill – posted on X.com for the first time in three years, in perhaps a hint at the froth that could be unleashed if CPI undershoots.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
Economics: German ZEW surveys, British wages, U.S. PPI
Earnings: Bayer, Veolia, Vodafone, Alibaba
Speeches: Fed’s Powell, BoE’s Pill
 
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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