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<title>Ramblings: Edmonton Forces Game 7, Barkov Wins Selke, Top 100 Roto Rankings Feedback (May 19)</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/19/ramblings-edmonton-forces-game-7-barkov-wins-selke-top-100-roto-rankings-feedback-may-19/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/19/ramblings-edmonton-forces-game-7-barkov-wins-selke-top-100-roto-rankings-feedback-may-19/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Gooding]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Sun, 19 May 2024 04:33:24 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Hockey Rambling]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=83039</guid>
<description><![CDATA[The Oilers dominated a must-win Game 6, forcing a winner-take-all Game 7 with the Canucks on Monday night in Vancouver. Oilers 5, Canucks 1 (series tied 3-3) Evan Bouchard and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins each scored a goal and added two assists in the Oilers’ Game 6 victory. Bouchard in particular had a strong game, finishing with [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
The Oilers dominated a must-win Game 6, forcing a winner-take-all Game 7 with the Canucks on Monday night in Vancouver.
Oilers 5, Canucks 1 (series tied 3-3)
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/evan-bouchard">Evan Bouchard</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-Nugent-Hopkins">Ryan Nugent-Hopkins</a> each scored a goal and added two assists in the Oilers' Game 6 victory. Bouchard in particular had a strong game, finishing with a plus-4 while unleashing his lethal shot on his goal.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">BOUCHARD. 3-1 OILERS. <a href="https://t.co/TjadKdTC3t">pic.twitter.com/TjadKdTC3t</a>— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) <a href="https://twitter.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1792006730294948292?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 19, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Bouchard now has four goals in this series and five goals overall in the playoffs. He also leads all defensemen with 18 points in 11 playoff games, while last season he finished with 17 points in 12 playoff games. Bouchard is someone you want on your playoff pool roster, especially if you have to fill your roster with at least one defenseman.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dylan-holloway">Dylan Holloway</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/zach-hyman">Zach Hyman</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Evander-Kane">Evander Kane</a> scored the Oilers' other goals. Ben mentioned Holloway in this week's <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/18/the-journey-strong-u24-play-drivers-part-two-det-ott/">Journey</a> as a player receiving an opportunity with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Leon-Draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a>. Holloway was finally able to cash in with a goal, breaking an eight-game point drought. Holloway's only other playoff points were two goals in Game 2 of the first-round series against Los Angeles.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a> finished with three assists, while <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Leon-Draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a> added two assists. Draisaitl is the third-fastest player in NHL history to reach 100 career playoff points, which he has done in 60 games. The only players to do it faster are two guys named Lemieux and Gretzky. Regardless of how far the Oilers go in the playoffs, Draisaitl, McDavid, and Bouchard score at a high enough pace to justify their place on playoff pool rosters. They are currently 1-2-3 in playoff scoring, with Draisaitl at 23 points, McDavid at 21 points (but just two goals), and Bouchard at 18 points. The next-highest player is <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cale-makar">Cale Makar</a> at 15 points, while the next-highest active players have 14 points.
The big story before Game 6 was the fact that <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/stuart-skinner">Stuart Skinner</a> would be back in net for the Oilers after <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Calvin-Pickard">Calvin Pickard</a> started Games 4 and 5. Pickard hadn't been bad in his two starts in this series, but the Oilers felt the need to go with their <a href="https://goaliepost.com ">starting goalie</a> in a game where they faced elimination. Skinner was fine in making 14 saves, but the Canucks didn't test the struggling goalie nearly enough in Game 6. Expect the Oilers to turn back to Skinner for Game 7.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a> was a participant in Saturday's practice, so it looks like he should be able to return soon. Meanwhile, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arturs-silovs">Arturs Silovs</a> allowed five goals for the first time in the playoffs. Silovs has had two really bad starts in this series, with the other being in the Game 1 win for the Canucks (4 GA on 18 SA). After the game, Rick Tocchet threw cold water on the idea of Demko starting, which makes sense because he would be thrust into the Canucks' most important game of the season after not playing in nearly a month.
That being said, if the Canucks win Game 7, don't be surprised if Demko starts Game 1 of the conference final against Dallas, which would take place on Thursday. I'll bet the Stars were cheering for Edmonton in Game 6 and will be pulling for a lengthy overtime in Game 7 so that their opponent is tired heading into Big D for Game 1.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nils-hoglander">Nils Hoglander</a> scored the Canucks' lone goal in this game, which was his first goal of the playoffs. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/elias-pettersson">Elias Pettersson</a> registered the primary assist on the goal, giving him assists on each of the last two Canucks' goals. He hasn't been at his best during the playoffs, but at least he's contributed something lately.
The secondary assist on the Hoglander goal went to <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/filip-hronek">Filip Hronek</a>. That assist was Hronek's first point of the playoffs. One hockey insider suggested that Hronek's next contract figure would begin with an 8, but I'd beg to differ since Hronek hasn't exactly excelled under the playoff spotlight. In his Salary Projections, Alex has Hronek at $6.05 million. I'll go $6.5 million.  
Vancouver and Edmonton have alternated wins and losses over the first six games of the series. If that holds true for Game 7, then it's the Canucks' turn to win. I picked the Canucks in 7 in the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/05/experts-panel-2023-24-playoff-round-2-predictions/">writers' playoff predictions</a>, which seemed like a bold move at the time with how I was in the clear minority. Now? I'm still somewhat confident in my prediction, even though the Oilers have to be feeling good about their chances after their Game 6 result. The Canucks have been very good at bouncing back after weak efforts this season, so expect a better Game 7 effort from them. Canucks and Oilers fans will be sweating bullets, while hockey fans with no rooting interest will sit back and enjoy the ride.
–
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Aleksander-Barkov">Aleksander Barkov</a> was announced as the winner of this season's Selke Trophy as the league's top defensive player. Barkov finished with his fourth consecutive point-per-game season (79 PTS in 73 GP). As well, he finished fifth among forwards with a plus-33 rating while leading the Panthers with exactly 1100 faceoffs taken, winning 57.3% of them.
Some of the NHL awards will be announced will be announced before the NHL's awards show on June 27. The biggest trophies – Calder, Hart, Norris, Lindsay, and Vezina – will still be announced at the awards show. See the <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_planner.php">schedule</a> of announcements <a href="https://www.nhl.com/news/aleksander-barkov-of-panthers-wins-selke-trophy">here</a>.
–
As per Kevin Weekes, Rod Brind'Amour and his coaching staff have agreed to extensions with the Carolina Hurricanes. It didn't seem like Brind'Amour would be leaving the Hurricanes, but he had been without a contract after the season ended. Even though the Canes haven't delivered in the playoffs the past few seasons, Brind'Amour still seems like the right guy for the job.
–
In case you missed it, the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/15/top-100-roto-rankings-may-2024/">Top 100 Roto Rankings</a> have been updated for May. I wasn't able to update them during April because I was heavy at work on the <a href="https://dobbersports.com/shop/">Playoff Draft List</a>.
I've seen a few questions about when Dobber's rankings such as the Top 300 Skaters, Top 120 Defensemen, and Top 100 Goalies will be available. They will be available once Dobber is able to return to work on them. I can't provide an exact or even approximate date due to his health situation, but please continue to check back <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/category/hockey-home/hockey-rankings/">here</a>. I'll also clarify that his rankings are for keeper leagues, whereas the Top 100 Roto Rankings are for single-season leagues.
As always, I appreciate any feedback I receive on the rankings. Although I try to be thorough on them each month, I don't always have time to check on every player and compare to those around them. I received a few player suggestions on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/dobberhockey">Twitter</a>/X when the May rankings were released. At that time, comments usually come in the form of "What about (player that I didn't include)?" So I'll take the remaining time to discuss why they weren't on the list, and evaluate whether they should be reconsidered.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Gabriel-Landeskog">Gabriel Landeskog</a>
When Landeskog has been healthy and active, he has been fully deserving of a place in the top 100. He has eclipsed the point-per-game mark in two of his last four seasons while averaging nearly nearly three shots and over one hit per game. The trouble is that Landeskog has not played a single game in two whole seasons. Since the Roto Rankings only take a short-term (single-season) view, Landeskog will not reappear on these rankings until he returns to action. He has been skating with the Avalanche, although no specific return date has been provided. In the meantime, Landeskog appears on the injured list for the rankings.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mikhail-sergachev">Mikhail Sergachev</a>
Sergachev started last season on the top 100 list. He had just come off a career-high 64-point season where he had appeared to have taken over the top power-play spot from <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Victor-Hedman">Victor Hedman</a>. But in December, Sergachev was hit with two lower-body injuries that caused him to miss the rest of the season except for one game in early February. As a result, Sergachev lost his power-play role to a resurgent Hedman, and he finished the season with just 19 points in 34 games – a 46-point pace. He also registered just seven power-play points this season compared to 27 power-play points in 2022-23.
The 33-year-old Hedman may eventually concede that top power-play role to Sergachev, while the fact that Hedman has just one year remaining on his contract is also noteworthy as the Lightning need to make some hard decisions about where they stand as a team after two first-round exits. As it stands, I'd bet the under on Sergachev reaching 64 points in 2024-25. If Sergachev can regain that pace, which will likely be tied to power-play time, then he will more likely regain his place in the top 100.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/seth-jarvis">Seth Jarvis</a>
This recommendation makes the most sense out of these three. In his third NHL season, Jarvis finally broke out to be rosterable in the majority of single-season leagues with 33 goals and 67 points. A portion – although not all – of Jarvis's jump from 39 to 67 points was in the form of power-play points. Jarvis recorded just two power-play goals and 11 power-play points combined in his first two seasons, but thanks to a promotion to the first unit, Jarvis finished with 20 power-play points, which included 13 power-play goals.
The question for Jarvis is whether the 2023-24 production is sustainable. After finishing with a 7.5 SH% in 2022-23, Jarvis's shooting percentage doubled to 18.8 SH% in 2023-24. As a result, his goal total could cool off a bit, so don't be surprised if he finishes below 30 goals next season. That might be the only negative on Jarvis, as he is about to reach the fourth season where many players break out. As long as he is able to keep receiving 50+ percent of the available power-play minutes, Jarvis should be good for 60+ points again. Add in another season of over 100 hits and he looks like a top-100 roto player.
–
Follow me on X <a href="https://twitter.com/Ian_Gooding">@Ian_Gooding</a> and <a href="https://www.threads.net/@goodsfantasyhockey">Threads</a>.
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<title>The Journey: Strong U24 Play-Drivers, Part Two (DET-OTT)</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/18/the-journey-strong-u24-play-drivers-part-two-det-ott/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/18/the-journey-strong-u24-play-drivers-part-two-det-ott/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ben Gehrels]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Sat, 18 May 2024 21:52:32 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[The Journey]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=83033</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom. *** Inspired by Thomas Harley’s incredible break out campaign in 2023-24, this is the second instalment in a series highlighting young players (under 24) around the league who made a significant [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
Welcome back to <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/category/hockey-home/the-journey/">The Journey</a>, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2022/06/30/breakout-threshold-bt-using-career-games-played-to-determine-breakout-potential/">stardom</a>.
***
Inspired by <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thomas-harley">Thomas Harley</a>'s incredible break out campaign in 2023-24, this is the second instalment in a series highlighting young players (under 24) around the league who made a significant mark on their respective teams this year, especially in terms of playdriving (relCorsiFor), playmaking/involvement (IPP), and overall value added (xWAR, xGAR).
Catch Part One <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/11/the-journey-strong-u24-play-drivers-part-one-ana-dal/">here</a>.
This week, we will look at the league's next eleven teams by alphabetical order.
At a Glance
Detroit: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/simon-edvinsson">Simon Edvinsson</a>, 21
Edmonton: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dylan-holloway">Dylan Holloway</a>, 22
Florida: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/anton-lundell">Anton Lundell</a>, 22
Los Angeles: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arthur-kaliyev">Arthur Kaliyev</a>, 22 (HM: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandt-clarke">Brandt Clarke</a>)
Minnesota: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/marco-rossi">Marco Rossi</a>, 22
Montreal: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/joshua-roy">Joshua Roy</a>, 20 (HM: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jordan-harris">Jordan Harris</a>, 23)
New Jersey: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/luke-hughes">Luke Hughes</a>, 19
Nashville: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/luke-evangelista">Luke Evangelista</a>, 22
New York Islanders: None (HM: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/noah-dobson">Noah Dobson</a>, 24)
New York Rangers: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexis-lafreniere">Alexis Lafreniere</a>, 22 (HM: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/filip-chytil">Filip Chytil</a>, 24)
Ottawa: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/shane-pinto">Shane Pinto</a>, 23 (HM: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-sanderson">Jake Sanderson</a>, 21)
***
Simon Edvinsson played the final 16 games of the 2023-24 campaign with Detroit, working with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jeff-petry">Jeff Petry</a> on the bottom pair. The Wings have five defenders already signed for next year, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/moritz-seider">Moritz Seider</a> is an RFA who will be paid big money and locked down long-term. If Shayne Gostisbehere also returns, that makes seven pro defenders already under contract, meaning Edvinsson likely kicks off the year back in Grand Rapids.
Edvinsson looks ready, though. He played a lot over those 16 games, was not that sheltered, and did well, driving play better than his veteran partner, for example, and finishing eighth on the team in xGAR. Two assists do not move the fantasy needle, but the offensive skills and mindset are there. Expect his scoring to slowly increase, as it has his whole career to date, until he is a consistent 50+ point performer with big hits and blocks totals.
***
I wrote about <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dylan-holloway">Dylan Holloway</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/anton-lundell">Anton Lundell</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexis-lafreniere">Alexis Lafreniere</a> a <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/27/the-journey-early-playoff-impacts-from-the-2020-draft-class/">couple weeks ago</a> because they were all performing well early on in the playoffs. Given that all three (at the time of writing) are still in the playoffs, let's zoom in on how the second round has gone / is going.
The main frustration with Holloway all along has been that when he does play with the Oilers (he has actually played exactly 100 games for Edmonton now), he typically gets under 10 minutes a night on the fourth line, never getting time beside <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a> or Leon Draisaitl. Well, that has changed so far in the Vancouver series. Holloway has played in the top six for the last few games now, alongside Draisaitl for Games 4 and 5 and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-Nugent-Hopkins">Ryan Nugent-Hopkins</a> for Game 3. The results for the Oilers as a team have been subpar, however, and the Holloway-Draisaitl line has been getting blown up against the Canucks, losing out on scoring chances 16-10. Hopefully for Holloway owners, that line sticks together and turns in a stronger performance in Game 6.
***
While Holloway's scoring stalled at two points in Round 1, Lundell has continued to hit the scoresheet regularly. He now has nine points in 11 playoff games, including a goal and an assist to eliminate Boston yesterday. Lundell has mostly toiled in the bottom six but has replaced Sam Bennett at times on the <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matthew-tkachuk">Matthew Tkachuk</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/carter-verhaeghe">Carter Verhaeghe</a> line. He is throwing an uncharacteristic number of hits (almost 2.5/game) and winning a ton of face-offs (53.5% win rate), though his shot rate is down slightly. During the regular season, he drove play well in a fairly prominent offensive role, receiving the sixth-most offensive zone starts on the team.
He is now about 50 games past his Breakout Threshold (BT) and overdue for a step forward offensively. Are we seeing the beginning of that step forward right now in the playoffs?
***
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/arthur-kaliyev">Arthur Kaliyev</a> is easily the biggest surprise on this list. He has declined so hard offensively and been healthy scratched so many times that it is fair to wonder if he is even an NHLer at this point—let alone a fantasy asset. He needs to get out of LA, but can a trade unlock the goal-scoring upside he always had coming up? What went wrong this season?
He broke into the league in his Draft+3 season, then improved on his rookie production in Year Two. But then this year, just as he approached his BT (197 career games), he fell out of favour and took a massive step backwards. More perplexing is that he did quite well over the first quarter of the season, scoring ten points in 17 games with decent power-play exposure and solid shot rates, which has been one of his redeeming graces in fantasy to date. Then he scored only five more points for the rest of the year and spent a good chunk of it watching from the press box.
The perplexing part is that Kaliyev drove play really well in a heavily sheltered role this year—especially when compared to fellow sheltered youngsters <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alex-turcotte">Alex Turcotte</a> and Alex Laferriere. He finished 11th on the team in xGAR and had one of the highest relative Corsi For ratings on the team, which gives him a rare "Effective Sheltered Forward" label in the Dobber deployment chart below. Sure, you do not want to have to shelter a player forever, but the underlying stats suggest a young guy who is clearly ready for a more prominent role. But instead, he was repeatedly scratched.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="810" height="796" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-10.png" alt="" class="wp-image-83034" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-10-66x66.png 66w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-10-200x197.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-10-300x295.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-10-400x393.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-10-600x590.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-10-768x755.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-10-800x786.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-10.png 810w" sizes="(max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px" /></figure>
Joe Patarino at <a href="https://hockeyroyalty.com/2024/03/22/la-kings-the-curious-case-of-arthur-kaliyev/">Hockey Royalty</a> points to declining proficiency on the PP and his slow skating making him ineffective in transition. Per NHL Edge, Kaliyev is indeed in the bottom half of the league for a variety of skating speed metrics. Something about the Kings' system was not working for Kaliyev this year, and he clearly needs a trade to reinvigorate his career. His shot remains special, but he has a lot of question marks at this point.
For fantasy, I actually see him as a pretty intriguing buy-low player right now. If he lands somewhere, gets some PP time, and hits his BT, the result could be a 30-goal, 50+-point season seemingly out of nowhere. After all, it was not that long ago that Kaliyev was on a star-level trajectory.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="975" height="488" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-11.png" alt="" class="wp-image-83035" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-11-200x100.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-11-300x150.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-11-400x200.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-11-600x300.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-11-768x384.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-11-800x400.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-11.png 975w" sizes="(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px" /></figure>
***
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/marco-rossi">Marco Rossi</a> just posted a very sustainable-looking 40-point, 82-game campaign. He has room to improve on the power play, but his IPP at even strength was solid (66%). Minnesota is feeding him offensive zone starts, elite linemates, and a fair amount of PP time. He is being somewhat sheltered but doing great with it. The Wild are out from under the combined $15 million dollar dead cap hit of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Zach-Parise">Zach Parise</a> (who retired after the Avalanche were eliminated last night) and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-Suter">Ryan Suter</a> (who helped eliminate them) next year, so this is a young team that will be able to add pieces and improve in a hurry.
Although there were question marks heading into this past year, Rossi has proved that he will be right in the middle of this rising Minnesota tide.
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One of the youngest players on this list, Joshua Roy looked great for Montreal in a 23-game audition this year. So did Honourable Mention Jordan Harris, but Harris quite a bit less interesting for fantasy purposes. Roy sported a star-level IPP (75) and finished 10th on the Canadiens in xGAR, which he obtained through balanced offensive- and defensive-zone impacts and some proficiency at drawing more penalties than he took. He is giving off Joe-Pavelski vibes: skilled, scrappy, and smart. Check out this slick tip.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Arber Xhekaj's shot gets tipped by Joshua Roy That's three goals on four shots by the Habs <a href="https://t.co/1WODGwn6Jg">pic.twitter.com/1WODGwn6Jg</a>— Scott Matla (@scottmatla) <a href="https://twitter.com/scottmatla/status/1767692231861825576?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 12, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Although projection models are not overly high on him (10% star potential) because his progression plateaued at a critical juncture of his career (D+1-D+3), Roy has been a big scorer both in the QMJHL and the AHL levels. These strong underlying metrics for his NHL debut bode well for his imminent future with this organization. Montreal tends to operate with a top-nine forward group, but expect Roy to earn a spot out of camp and enjoy a strong 2024-25.
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<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/luke-hughes">Luke Hughes</a> had a tremendous rookie year, as advertised, and will be a tremendous defender from now on. He is so obviously good that I barely want to write about him. There is just none of that "will he or won't he be good" mystery that makes prospect work so much fun. He finished fifth on New Jersey in xWAR, just behind his superstar brother, and the two will continue to enact one of the sweetest storylines in the NHL over the next decade plus as twin cornerstones for this up-and-coming franchise.
If you have him in fantasy, congratulations. If you don't have him now, you won't have him ever.
***
First impression when looking at Nashville’s xGAR sheets on Evolving Hockey: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Roman-Josi">Roman Josi</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Filip-Forsberg">Filip Forsberg</a> are absolute giants, especially on offence. There is a big gap after those two, then a second tier of Ryan O'Rielly, Tommy Novak, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-McDonagh">Ryan McDonagh</a>, and finally a group of moderately impactful forwards headlined by Luke Evangelista.
His deployment, and frankly also his skating speed, look eerily similar to Kaliyev. He is a slower, heavily sheltered forward who is performing well in that role and looks ready for more. His IPP is solid, his metrics are sustainable, and he just put up 40 points playing under 14 minutes a night. Here is their comparison via NHL Edge.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="940" height="423" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-12.png" alt="" class="wp-image-83036" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-12-200x90.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-12-300x135.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-12-400x180.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-12-600x270.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-12-768x346.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-12-800x360.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-12.png 940w" sizes="(max-width: 940px) 100vw, 940px" /></figure>
Takeaways include their similar skating speed but Evangalista's greater skating distance, which backs up the earlier insight about Kaliyev struggling in transition and suggests he is not forechecking or backchecking much either. You can see Kaliyev's hard shot (78th percentile) but that he was lacking Evangelista's volume, even though a similar percentage ended up in the net. The mismatched offensive zone time and resulting goal totals also stick out. Evangelista and Novak have developed excellent chemistry in the offensive zone, and that cycling, battling, small-area proficiency is evident here.
Do not count on him for high-end offence, but Evangelista is still about a full season away from his BT and should have a 60-point floor in his prime with decent shot totals but poor peripherals.
***
Lafreniere finished fourth on the Rangers this year in Expected Offence, ahead of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mika-Zibanejad">Mika Zibanejad</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Vincent-Trocheck">Vincent Trocheck</a> among others. His IPP stayed high (65) while his power play efficiency continued to improve. He posted a positive even-strength Expected Goals % for the first time (53.1) in his career and received a ton of offensive zone starts alongside <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Artemi-Panarin">Artemi Panarin</a>. It took him a bit longer to break out than expected, but he has definitely now arrived.
His 10 points in 10 playoff games suggest that he will be one of the Rangers' top weapons moving forward. Just wait until his PP time goes up past the 27% he received this year. He shoots, he hits, he scores, and he is a high-end fantasy asset after all, with a chance to be elite.
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Ottawa was a mess this year, but they feel like Buffalo and Columbus: young teams that struggled this year but have a ton of young, dynamic talent. Bright spots for the Sens included <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/shane-pinto">Shane Pinto</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-sanderson">Jake Sanderson</a>. Sanderson is worthy of a deeper dive after an excellent rookie season, but with the increasingly concerning injury history of top C <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/josh-norris">Josh Norris</a>, Pinto is particularly interesting right now from a fantasy perspective.
This team has a bunch of excellent face-off guys, but Pinto became the go-to pivot this year on a powerful line with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brady-tkachuk">Brady Tkachuk</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/drake-batherson">Drake Batherson</a>. He won over half of his draws, and his line drove play really well. Pinto was much less effective than the others highlighted today in terms of xGAR, however, a rating that was dragged down by a lack of offensive contributions. Of course, he scored at a very respectable 54-point pace and had a decently high IPP, so that should come along with added experience. He reminds me a bit of Lundell but with better linemates and deployment in that he is an offensively talented player with even stronger two-way instincts. If Norris continues to miss time with this nagging shoulder injury, Pinto's role could continue to grow as this team improves—an intriguing combination.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">"Just trying to help the team. Whatever I need to do, wherever I need to play I'll do my best and hopefully help the team win." Shane Pinto on playing as the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sens?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Sens</a> top line centre <a href="https://t.co/IJhR65sLjB">pic.twitter.com/IJhR65sLjB</a>— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) <a href="https://twitter.com/Senators/status/1779923893366763882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Thanks for reading! Follow me on X <a href="https://twitter.com/beegare">@beegare</a> for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.
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<title>Ramblings: Panthers and Stars Advance to Conference Final, Bruins and Avalanche Seasons End (May 18)</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/18/ramblings-panthers-and-stars-advance-to-conference-final-bruins-and-avalanche-seasons-end-may-18/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/18/ramblings-panthers-and-stars-advance-to-conference-final-bruins-and-avalanche-seasons-end-may-18/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Gooding]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Sat, 18 May 2024 07:03:39 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Hockey Rambling]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=83025</guid>
<description><![CDATA[In Friday’s playoff pucks, two more teams advanced to the conference final, which leaves just one spot remaining. Panthers 2, Bruins 1 (Panthers win series 4-2) Gustav Forsling scored the game-winning goal with just 1:33 remaining in regulation to win both Game 6 and the series for Florida. The Panthers will now face the New [...]]]></description>
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In Friday's playoff pucks, two more teams advanced to the conference final, which leaves just one spot remaining.
Panthers 2, Bruins 1 (Panthers win series 4-2)
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/gustav-forsling">Gustav Forsling</a> scored the game-winning goal with just 1:33 remaining in regulation to win both Game 6 and the series for Florida. The Panthers will now face the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final. Game 1 starts on Wednesday.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">FORSLING GIVES THE PANTHERS THE LEAD WITH 1.5 MINUTES LEFT 😱 <a href="https://t.co/Xls57uXOHm">pic.twitter.com/Xls57uXOHm</a>— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) <a href="https://twitter.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1791646997335707717?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 18, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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In addition to the game-winning goal, Forsling took five shots and logged 25 minutes, which were both team highs. He entered this game without a point in his previous two games, but he is having a decent playoff scoring-wise with seven points in 11 games. In the regular season, Forsling led the NHL with a plus-55 ranking, so he is establishing himself as a reliable minute-munching defenseman after being claimed off waivers by the Panthers in January 2021.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/anton-lundell">Anton Lundell</a> scored the Panthers' other goal while also assisting on Forsling's goal. Lundell had a strong game with a plus-2 and four shots. After producing at a 0.45 PTS/GP pace for the second consecutive season, Lundell has upped his production in the playoffs with nine points in 11 games.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sergei-Bobrovsky">Sergei Bobrovsky</a> turned aside 22 of 23 shots to pick up his third consecutive quality start.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pavel-zacha">Pavel Zacha</a> scored the Bruins' lone goal, which was his first career playoff goal in 25 playoff games.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brad-Marchand">Brad Marchand</a> returned for Game 6 after missing the past two games with an upper-body injury, although he was held off the scoresheet.
The Bruins took a too many men on the ice penalty in the second period. That penalty set the record for the most too many men penalties in a single playoff season (7).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jeremy-Swayman">Jeremy Swayman</a> saved 26 of 28 shots he faced. He certainly can't be blamed for the Bruins' exit from the playoffs, as he finishes the playoffs with a 2.15 GAA, .933 SV%, and 83.3 quality start percentage. Given the fact that he played in 12 of the Bruins' 13 games in the playoffs, Swayman appears to be the goalie of the future for the Bruins, who should now view <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/linus-ullmark">Linus Ullmark</a> as a trade chip. Having two high-caliber goalies is a luxury for a team facing the salary cap, and the Bruins could use help at other positions. In addition, goaltending prospect <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-bussi">Brandon Bussi</a> appears to be ready for a full-time NHL role next season after two strong seasons in the AHL.
The Bruins may not receive a true #1 center for Ullmark, but acquiring any top-6 forward could help the Bruins tremendously. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/David-Pastrnak">David Pastrnak</a>, Marchand, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Charlie-Coyle">Charlie Coyle</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pavel-zacha">Pavel Zacha</a> were the only Bruins forwards to exceed 40 points this season. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/morgan-geekie">Morgan Geekie</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matthew-poitras">Matt Poitras</a> could develop into top-6 forwards for the Bruins. However, a lack of scoring depth was apparent in this series against the Panthers, where the Bruins averaged just over two goals per game.
The Bruins don't have too much in the way of UFAs coming off the books, with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-debrusk">Jake DeBrusk</a> the most prominent name. They project to have over $20 million in cap space, so they could make a notable addition or two. Swayman will be an RFA, so he will need to be compensated well, particularly if he is the starter. Ullmark will be on the final year of his contract with a $5 million cap hit if he is not moved.
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Stars 2, Avalanche 1, 2 OT (Stars win series 4-2)
The second time was a charm for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Matt-Duchene">Matt Duchene</a> on Friday night. Duchene ended Game 6 and his former team's season with a goal in double overtime.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">MATT DUCHENE IS THE DOUBLE OT HERO! 💫 The Stars eliminate the Avalanche as Duchene scores the <a href="https://twitter.com/SUBWAYCanada?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SUBWAYCanada</a> OT winner! <a href="https://t.co/ZK8E9fx1xg">pic.twitter.com/ZK8E9fx1xg</a>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1791711366874616278?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 18, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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It wasn't the first overtime "goal" that Duchene was involved in, though. Do you think this should have been a goal?
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The Stars goal is being automatically reviewed for goaltender interference. Call on the ice was no goal <a href="https://t.co/CSvlwUUzhX">pic.twitter.com/CSvlwUUzhX</a>— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) <a href="https://twitter.com/BR_OpenIce/status/1791697770786488390?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 18, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Most of the people on X seemed to think it was a goal. You have a goalie playing outside of the paint, and a defenseman who pushes the opponent into the goalies. The referees called it no goal on the ice and stuck with their decision after video review, though. The irony that Duchene scored the actual winner after being involved in this play shows that real life can occasionally be stranger than fiction.  
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jamie-Benn">Jamie Benn</a> scored the other goal for Dallas, while <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mikko-Rantanen">Mikko Rantanen</a> scored for Colorado.
The final total in this shot game was 38 shots for Dallas and 30 shots for Colorado. That seems a bit low for a double-overtime game, particularly for Colorado. That being said, I'm noticing lower shot totals overall in playoff games this season compared to regular season games.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/roope-hintz">Roope Hintz</a> was out of the Stars' lineup for the second consecutive game with an upper-body injury. Peter DeBoer is hopeful Hintz will be able to play in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final.
The Stars now await the winner of the Vancouver/Edmonton series. The Canucks lead the series 3-2 with Game 6 to be played on Saturday night in Edmonton.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexandar-georgiev">Alexandar Georgiev</a> was thought to be the weak link for the Avalanche heading into the playoffs. His playoff numbers turned out to be relatively average (2.77 GAA, .897 SV%, 54.5 quality start %), showing that he wasn't a complete disaster while playing well at times. Georgiev has one more year left on his contract, so it will be interesting to see whether the Avalanche try to re-sign him or decide to go a different direction in next after next season.
Maybe this series would have turned out differently had <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Valeri-Nichushkin">Valeri Nichushkin</a> been available for the entire series. Nichushkin had suddenly been placed back into the Player Assistance Program prior to Game 4, meaning that he will be suspended for a minimum of six months. Nichushkin had been valuable for the Avs, producing at a point-per-game pace (53 PTS in 54 games). In addition, Nichushkin had scored a career-high 28 goals, which included 16 power-play goals. Colorado simply couldn't replace that kind of production. The earliest Nichushkin will be able to return to the lineup would be mid-November, so he shouldn't be considered anything more than a late-round pick in single-season fantasy drafts next season. Keep in mind that the Avs can't terminate his contract while he's in the Player Assistance Program.
The Avalanche's core players are under contract for next season, but they still have many other roster spots to fill with just over $15 million in cap space. One player they should make a serious effort at re-signing is <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jonathan-Drouin">Jonathan Drouin</a>. The idea of reuniting Drouin with former junior teammate <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nathan-MacKinnon">Nathan MacKinnon</a> wasn't just a good idea on paper. Drouin rebounded from some rough, injury-riddled seasons with the Habs with a career-high 56 points while staying healthy for nearly all of the season. The absence of Nichushkin for at least the first month of the season and possibly longer means that the Avs could use a scoring winger like Drouin.
Some potential good news for Colorado is that <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Gabriel-Landeskog">Gabriel Landeskog</a> is working toward a return, although Jared Bednar admitted after Game 6 that Landeskog still wasn't close to returning during the playoffs. It sounds like Landeskog could be ready for next season, but we'll have to wait for further updates. Landeskog has missed two whole seasons, so he's very much a wild card production-wise.
Game 6 was the last NHL game for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Zach-Parise">Zach Parise</a>, who signed with the Avalanche in early February and announced he would retire after the season. Parise finishes a solid career with over 1200 games and nearly 900 points, including a career-high 45 goals and 94 points with New Jersey in 2008-09.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Two veterans and former <a href="https://twitter.com/mnwild?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@mnwild</a> teammates Zach Parise and Ryan Suter meet in the handshake line. 🤝 <a href="https://t.co/4eUDf7xMKW">pic.twitter.com/4eUDf7xMKW</a>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1791714509737939016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 18, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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The Leafs made the rumored Craig Berube hiring official today. Read the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/17/fantasy-take-berube-the-new-chief-in-toronto/">Fantasy Take here</a>.
The Devils signed <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kurtis-macdermid">Kurtis MacDermid</a> to a three-year, $3.45 million contract. MacDermid provides the Devils with toughness, but I'm not sure why they felt the need to sign a part-time player to a three-year contract. I'll leave it at that.
–
Follow me on X <a href="https://twitter.com/Ian_Gooding">@Ian_Gooding</a> and <a href="https://www.threads.net/@goodsfantasyhockey">Threads</a>.
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<title>Fantasy Take: Berube the New Chief in Toronto</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/17/fantasy-take-berube-the-new-chief-in-toronto/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/17/fantasy-take-berube-the-new-chief-in-toronto/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Gooding]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2024 22:53:01 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Fantasy Take - Latest NHL Moves]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=83021</guid>
<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Maple Leafs have hired Craig Berube to be their new head coach, replacing the fired Sheldon Keefe. Berube was previously the head coach of the St. Louis Blues, where he took over as head coach partway through the 2018-19 season and guided the team from the bottom of the standings to a Stanley [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
The Toronto Maple Leafs have hired Craig Berube to be their new head coach, replacing the fired Sheldon Keefe.
Berube was previously the head coach of the St. Louis Blues, where he took over as head coach partway through the 2018-19 season and guided the team from the bottom of the standings to a Stanley Cup. Berube coached the Blues until this past season, when he was replaced by Drew Bannister during the season. Previous to his time in St. Louis, Berube was the head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers for two seasons.
The Leafs are hoping that Berube's Stanley Cup resume and blue-collar coaching style will lead to better playoff results. Although the Leafs have participated in some form of playoff series every season since 2016-17 (eight seasons), they have won a series only once during that span (last season against Tampa Bay). That being said, Keefe had the highest regular-season winning percentage of any coach in Leafs history, which Berube will be in tough to match.
Because he is coaching in the media market that is Toronto, Berube's coaching methods and results will be more heavily scrutinized than they were in St. Louis. The downward trend of results during his time in St. Louis had much to do with losses to key players such as <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alex-Pietrangelo">Alex Pietrangelo</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-O-Reilly">Ryan O'Reilly</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Vladimir-Tarasenko">Vladimir Tarasenko</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/David-Perron">David Perron</a>. Those player departures had a negative impact on the power play in particular, which was top-5 for his first few seasons but second-last in the league when Berube was let go. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jordan-binnington">Jordan Binnington</a>, who was the key addition in the Stanley Cup season, also saw his numbers decline during the Berube tenure.
From a fantasy perspective, the Berube hiring shouldn't change a lot in terms of projections from players on the current roster. Major player transactions are more likely to do that. Yet it's possible that the Leafs run it back with the same core to find out who sinks and who swims under Berube. Or GM Brad Treliving could make further moves to form a roster that better fits with Berube's coaching philosophy. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mitchell-marner">Mitch Marner</a>, who does not have the reputation of being a strong playoff player despite some decent playoff scoring results (50 PTS in 57 GP), may no longer fit into the Leafs’ plans. Marner has contributed at least 25 power-play points in each of his last three seasons, so a trade out of Toronto could hurt the power-play results of the likes of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews">Auston Matthews</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-nylander">William Nylander</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/John-Tavares">John Tavares</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Morgan-Rielly">Morgan Rielly</a>.
The fact is that Berube alone isn't simply the missing piece that will lead the Leafs to that long-awaited Stanley Cup. Personnel improvements on defense and in goal will be necessary, and that will be up to Treliving. Yet Berube's demanding nature and focus on winning battles could make the Leafs a more difficult team to play against, so don't be surprised to see at least a short-term new-coach bump from certain players.  
To read opinions and weigh in on the Berube hire, please go to <a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?264366-Leafs-to-name-Craig-Berube-new-head-coach">this thread</a> on the Forum.
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<title>Frozen Tools Forensics: First-Round Exits for Toronto, Washington, Tampa, and NY Islanders</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/17/frozen-tools-forensics-first-round-exits-for-toronto-washington-tampa-and-ny-islanders/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/17/frozen-tools-forensics-first-round-exits-for-toronto-washington-tampa-and-ny-islanders/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris Kane]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2024 14:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Frozen Tools Forensics]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=83000</guid>
<description><![CDATA[This week we are returning to our playoff series with the second part of our first-round review. Last week we covered the teams eliminated from the Western Conference: Nashville, Vegas, LA, and Winnipeg. This week we are moving on to talk about the Eastern Conference, which means Toronto, Washington, Tampa, and the New York Islanders. [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
This week we are returning to our playoff series with the second part of our first-round review. Last week we covered the teams eliminated from the Western Conference: Nashville, Vegas, LA, and Winnipeg. This week we are moving on to talk about the Eastern Conference, which means Toronto, Washington, Tampa, and the New York Islanders.
As a reminder this series is really focused on the things that changed for the team. It is such a small sample size that we are not going to read too much into point paces, but instead look at how players were utilized in these win-or-go-home series and if that change resulted in anything different on the score sheet or in the underlying numbers. Doing so might give us a bit of insight into how coaches are viewing certain players and who might be primed for a different role next season compared to this one. This is also the playoffs, so to some extent we would assume that a team's top players see a bit of an increase while some depth players might fall off a bit.
Caveat time for all of these first-round exits. They all lost. In the first round. That means small sample sizes of course, but it also means that what the team/coach did didn't really work, so there will be less motivation to build on it for next year.
And now on to the process. We will be looking at deployment and specifically percent of time on the power-play, and total time on ice. We will be using percent as overtime games can add significant time to a player's overall count without changing that player's real deployment opportunity. In order to get this data, we will be running a Big Board report for the playoffs and comparing that to a second custom Big Board report for the last two months of the regular season. That comparison will tell us which players have gained or lost time between these two samples. Essentially we are looking at four data points from two different time periods. We have basic scoring data (points per game, and shots per game), then basic time on ice data (percent of the power-play, and total time on ice).
First up, the Islanders. Unlike the majority of situations last week, we actually have some players who looked a little different in this series. It looks like essentially the top nine lines saw at least a minute more of ice time (some of this due to overtime), plus by the last games these lines were looking different than during the regular season. The top scoring line was <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/bo-horvat">Bo Horvat</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mathew-barzal">Mathew Barzal</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Casey-Cizikas">Casey Cizikas</a>. The second line looks like <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brock-Nelson">Brock Nelson</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Kyle-Palmieri">Kyle Palmieri</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pierre-engvall">Pierre Engvall</a>. The top power play also saw a chunk more time, which again is not entirely surprising. Of all the Islanders forwards, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Anders-Lee">Anders Lee</a> was one of few who actually put up a higher shot rate, and points per game rate than the end of the season.
Basically, this entire crew is under contract for next season, so running back similar lines is certainly an option. It is interesting to see that Engvall and Cizikas got a bump in deployment, though it seems unlikely that Cizikas at least will hold that after a career of bottom six deployment. Overall, while these lines did get more time, and a couple of players switched roles, I don't think there is too much to read into here.
Washington is a bit of a wasteland in this view. They got swept, and scored all of seven goals. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dylan-strome">Dylan Strome</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/T.J.-Oshie">T.J. Oshie</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Max-Pacioretty">Max Pacioretty</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tom-Wilson">Tom Wilson</a> technically saw more time – either overall, or on the power-play, but that is about all we can say about this series. Strome and Wilson seem to be all that is left of an under-35 core, so we shouldn't be too surprised they saw more time. The only other note is that <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-mcmichael">Connor McMichael</a> did go on a nice shooting spree, upping his shot rates by over one per game. Given he is one of the few younger players on this team preparing to step into a bigger role, that was good to see. Coupled with a decent showing a few times at the end of the season, he is probably the one worth keeping an eye on.
Tampa is looking at a five-game loss to Florida. They lost, so clearly didn't score enough goals, but the drop off was not as dramatic as for some of these other teams. Most of their players did score at a lower pace than during the season, but most did not miss by a lot. In terms of deployment, the top line/top power-play players saw a bit more time, which is pretty much expected.
The interesting notes are the loss of power-play time for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/anthony-cirelli">Anthony Cirelli</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Anthony-Duclair">Anthony Duclair</a> (not a good series to be Anthony on a power play apparently). Duclair is interesting as he was getting prime deployment after arriving in Tampa, but lost both towards the end of the season and during this series. Cirelli was also getting a few turns on the power play earlier in the season, but not during the playoffs. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-hagel">Brandon Hagel</a> was back on that top unit for what it's worth. I think this just reinforces that Cirelli isn't likely to get long term looks and that guys like Hagel and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nicholas-paul">Nick Paul</a> probably remain as the top choices pending further lineup changes.
Finally, Toronto. Woof. First up, no one scored more during this series than during the regular season. Not a shocking observation. They did have a couple of big names who missed games in <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews">Auston Matthews</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-nylander">William Nylander</a>, which created some opportunities for others, plus Matthews was reportedly ill/injured so was probably not getting the time he would otherwise have gotten. Likely because of that the line of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/John-Tavares">John Tavares</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matthew-knies">Matthew Knies</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-nylander">William Nylander</a> saw the most time, all increases from the regular season.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tyler-bertuzzi">Tyler Bertuzzi</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Max-Domi">Max Domi</a> saw time-on-ice increases as well <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_lastgamelines.php">on a line with</a> <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mitchell-marner">Mitch Marner</a>. Nylander, Knies, and Bertuzzi also improved their shot rates. On the whole it is hard to read too much into it with the injuries/illness, but it is good to see Knies being given a bigger role (and doing a little something with it), he is someone I will be paying attention to during the off season. Bertuzzi is a UFA, and I do wonder if this is any indication of Toronto's interest in bringing him back if possible.
That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.
<a href="https://twitter.com/BlackGirlHockey">Black Girl Hockey Club</a>
<a href="https://www.nhl.com/community/hockey-is-for-everyone">Hockey is For Everyone</a>
<a href="https://twitter.com/AthletesForHope">Athletes for Hope</a>
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<title>Analytics Advantage: Fantasy Points Per Game, PDO, and Expected Goals in the Playoffs</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/17/analytics-advantage-fantasy-points-per-game-pdo-and-expected-goals-in-the-playoffs/</link>
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<dc:creator><![CDATA[Stas Pupkov]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2024 10:07:44 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Analytics Advantage]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=83010</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Welcome back to another week of Analytics Advantage. This week, we are shifting our focus to a playoff edition, where we will analyze and visualize the performance metrics that were so crucial during the 2023/24 regular season. Our goal is to bring attention to a few key graphs and metrics that can help highlight players [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
Welcome back to another week of Analytics Advantage. This week, we are shifting our focus to a playoff edition, where we will analyze and visualize the performance metrics that were so crucial during the 2023/24 regular season. Our goal is to bring attention to a few key graphs and metrics that can help highlight players who may be underappreciated or to further commend those already recognized for their excellent performance.
Previously, we have comprehensively covered each team that was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs (<a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/02/analytics-advantage-the-florida-panthers-new-york-rangers-carolina-hurricanes-and-winnipeg-jets-advance-in-the-playoffs/">part one</a> and <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/10/analytics-advantage-first-round-analysis-on-los-angeles-nashville-toronto-and-vegas/">part two</a>). In this edition, we will delve into data visualizations from playoff games spanning April 20, 2024, to May 15, 2024.
There are some important considerations as we proceed. Teams that have advanced to the second round will naturally have more complete data sets. To ensure fair comparisons across different metrics and to account for varying game times and player usage, we will use z-scores instead of raw values specifically for the quadrant analysis. Z-scores standardize the data, allowing us to compare players on a level playing field, which mitigates the skew in numbers that could arise from different sample sizes.
It is crucial to remember that, as with any dataset, the information we present is not exhaustive enough to make judgments with 100% accuracy. Playoff hockey is highly unpredictable, and any player has the potential to be a game-changer on any given night.
Moving into the analysis, we will focus on two main visualizations: the players who have produced the most fantasy points per game and the PDO vs. xGF quadrant analysis. The fantasy points per game metric will highlight the most productive players in terms of overall contribution to their teams. Meanwhile, the PDO vs. xGF quadrant analysis will offer insights into how players are performing relative to expectations, shedding light on who might be getting unlucky or lucky and who is producing results that might not be immediately apparent on the scoresheet.
These visualizations and analyses are designed to provide a deeper understanding of player performance during the playoffs. We hope to identify players whose efforts might not be fully appreciated in traditional statistics and recognize those who are making significant impacts. Fantasy Points Per Game Analysis
To kick off our analysis, let’s look at the players who have produced the most Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) during the playoffs. This metric is crucial as it gives us a comprehensive view of a player’s overall contribution, factoring in goals, assists, shots, blocked shots, and hits.
Overall Top 15 Players by FPPG
Our first graph displays the top 15 players in terms of FPPG. This visualization highlights the standout performers who have been instrumental for their teams during the playoffs. Each player’s performance is plotted against their Time On Ice (TOI), providing context on their efficiency and usage. The player that I would focus on is <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sam-Reinhart">Sam Reinhart</a>, as he is producing FPPG near the likes of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Leon-Draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a> who has 20 points, while Reinhart only has 9. This means that Reinhart is producing and one of these main attributors to his FPPG is his league leading shots with a total of 46 shots in 10 games played. This is also producing rebounds, as he is top five in rebounds created with 10 (this places him tied for 3rd with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brent-Burns">Brent Burns</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cale-makar">Cale Makar</a>). Keep an eye on Reinhart as he seems to be an energy beacon for this elite Panther squad.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="731" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1-1024x731.png" alt="" class="wp-image-83011" style="width:1222px;height:auto" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1-200x143.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1-300x214.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1-400x286.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1-600x429.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1-768x549.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1-800x571.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1-1024x731.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1-1200x857.png 1200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGO1.png 1400w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
In this graph, we see a mix of offensive powerhouses and all-around contributors. Players with higher TOI and FPPG are likely those relied upon heavily by their teams, both in regular play and critical moments.
Top 15 by Defensive FPPG
Next, we narrow our focus to defense. Defense is the cornerstone of playoff hockey, and  often contribute differently compared to more offensive minded players, so it’s insightful to view their performance separately. This graph shows the top 15 defensive players ranked by FPPG, also plotted against TOI. One player I would like to highlight is <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jacob-Trouba">Jacob Trouba</a>, who is one of the top FPPG players defensively, and one of the big reasons is his heart and sacrifice that is coming from his shot blocking numbers. He is 2nd in the league behind <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Chris-Tanev">Chris Tanev</a>, Tanev has 47 blocks, and Trouba has 45. You might be asking, where is Tanev in the top 15? Even though Trouba has 2 less blocks, the amount of hits he has laid has been top tier, as the only players above him have either played more games or have had outlier playoff hitting numbers. Trouba has posted 36 hits through nine games, which places him at 12th overall in hitting.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="731" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1-1024x731.png" alt="" class="wp-image-83012" style="width:1260px;height:auto" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1-200x143.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1-300x214.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1-400x286.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1-600x429.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1-768x549.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1-800x571.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1-1024x731.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1-1200x857.png 1200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FPPGD1.png 1400w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
This visualization sheds light on which defensemen are not only strong in their primary defensive roles but also contribute significantly to their team’s offense through goals, assists, shots, and blocked shots.
PDO vs. xGF Quadrant Analysis
Moving on to the PDO vs. xGF quadrant analysis, this visualization helps us understand how players are performing relative to their expected goals and actual outcomes. PDO (a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage) indicates luck or variance, while xGF (Expected Goals For) represents the quality of scoring chances a player generates.
Top-Right Quadrant (High xGF, High PDO)
Players in this quadrant are performing exceptionally well, both in generating high-quality scoring chances and converting them effectively. These players are likely key contributors, showcasing both skill and favorable outcomes.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="1024" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-1024x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-83013" style="width:1196px;height:auto" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-66x66.png 66w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-150x150.png 150w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-200x200.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-300x300.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-400x400.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-600x600.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-768x768.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-800x800.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR-1024x1024.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TR.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Top-Left Quadrant (High xGF, Low PDO)
This quadrant features players who are creating plenty of scoring opportunities but experiencing poor conversion rates. These players might be considered unlucky or suffering from poor finishing or goaltending support. However, their high xGF suggests they are still valuable assets.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="1024" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-1024x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-83014" style="width:1193px;height:auto" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-66x66.png 66w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-150x150.png 150w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-200x200.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-300x300.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-400x400.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-600x600.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-768x768.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-800x800.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL-1024x1024.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/TL.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Bottom-Left Quadrant (Low xGF, Low PDO)
Players here are struggling both in generating scoring chances and in converting those they do create. This could indicate underperformance or tougher defensive roles. Identifying these players can help teams understand areas needing improvement.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="1024" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-1024x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-83015" style="width:1189px;height:auto" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-66x66.png 66w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-150x150.png 150w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-200x200.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-300x300.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-400x400.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-600x600.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-768x768.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-800x800.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL-1024x1024.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BL.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Bottom-Right Quadrant (Low xGF, High PDO)
Players in this quadrant have low xGF but high PDO, suggesting they are overperforming relative to their chance creation. These players might be benefiting from favorable shooting percentages or exceptional goaltending, which could indicate potential regression.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="1024" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-1024x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-83016" style="width:1181px;height:auto" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-66x66.png 66w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-150x150.png 150w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-200x200.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-300x300.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-400x400.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-600x600.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-768x768.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-800x800.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR-1024x1024.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BR.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Conclusion
These visualizations provide a deeper understanding of player performance during the playoffs. By looking at FPPG and the PDO vs. xGF analysis, we can identify standout performers, potential breakout players, and those who might be under or overperforming relative to their underlying metrics.
Such insights are invaluable for coaches, analysts, and fans alike, offering a more nuanced view of the game beyond traditional statistics. As the playoffs continue, keep an eye on these metrics to see how player performances evolve and impact their teams’ success.
Thank you for reading and have a great rest of your day!
<a href="https://www.twitter.com/dobberhockey">Twitter</a>/X – <a href="https://x.com/DH_staspup">@DH_staspup</a> for any questions, corrections, or comments
Player Data sourced from <a href="naturalstattrick.com">NaturalStatTrick</a>
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<title>Ramblings: Rangers Advance With Kreider Hat Trick, Miller Goal Gives Canucks Advantage (May 17)</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/17/ramblings-rangers-advance-with-kreider-hat-trick-miller-goal-gives-canucks-advantage-may-17/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/17/ramblings-rangers-advance-with-kreider-hat-trick-miller-goal-gives-canucks-advantage-may-17/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Gooding]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2024 06:21:27 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Hockey Rambling]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=83007</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Two games of playoff pucks on Thursday. The Rangers become the first team to advance to the conference final, while a last-minute goal in regulation places the Canucks one win away from their own trip to the conference final. Rangers 5, Hurricanes 3 (Rangers win series 4-2) With a 3-1 lead after two periods, the [...]]]></description>
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Two games of playoff pucks on Thursday. The Rangers become the first team to advance to the conference final, while a last-minute goal in regulation places the Canucks one win away from their own trip to the conference final.
Rangers 5, Hurricanes 3 (Rangers win series 4-2)
With a 3-1 lead after two periods, the Hurricanes looked to be in a great spot to force a winner-take-all Game 7 after being down 0-3 in the series. But then <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Chris-Kreider">Chris Kreider</a> recorded a natural hat trick to give the Rangers the lead in the game and the series for good. Kreider's status for this game wasn't totally certain, as he took a maintenance day on Wednesday before testing his injury during Thursday's morning skate. Kreider should have plenty of time to rest his injury before the Eastern Conference Final, although Florida could clinch their series on Friday night.
Kreider's three goals gives him seven goals and three assists over 10 games. He also took a personal playoff high seven shots on goal in Game 6. His game-tying goal in Game 6 was on the power play.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">CHRISTOPHER JAMES KREIDER 🤩 His natural hatty in the third period has sent the <a href="https://twitter.com/NYRangers?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NYRangers</a> to the Eastern Conference Final! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StanleyCup?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StanleyCup</a> Hat Trick Challenge presented by <a href="https://twitter.com/AstraZenecaUS?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AstraZenecaUS</a> <a href="https://t.co/YZUDraN3N7">pic.twitter.com/YZUDraN3N7</a>— NHL (@NHL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHL/status/1791285634989969908?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 17, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Vincent-Trocheck">Vincent Trocheck</a> scored one of the Rangers' other goals while adding an assist, while <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Artemi-Panarin">Artemi Panarin</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jack-roslovic">Jack Roslovic</a> each chipped in two assists. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/barclay-goodrow">Barclay Goodrow</a> scored an empty-net goal for insurance.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sebastian-aho/CAR">Sebastian Aho</a> scored a goal and added an assist in Game 6. He finishes the playoffs with 12 points in 11 games, including nine points in his last six games.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/andrei-svechnikov">Andrei Svechnikov</a> registered two assists, giving him six points in his last five playoff games and 11 points in 11 playoff games.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/seth-jarvis">Seth Jarvis</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/martin-necas">Martin Necas</a> scored the Canes' other two goals. Necas finishes the playoffs with goals in back-to-back games.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/frederik-andersen">Frederik Andersen</a> most likely wanted this one back, allowing four goals on just 23 shots. That was Andersen's third really bad start in 10 playoff games this season. After a late-season surge, Andersen's playoff performance fell back to earth a bit.
Special teams were a more significant reason that the Hurricanes could not advance. After a season where they had the league's second-best power play (26.9 PP%), the Canes were only 2-for-21 (9.5 PP%) with the man advantage in this series. They also allowed two shorthanded goals to the Rangers.
The Hurricanes now face an offseason with some major decisions. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-guentzel">Jake Guentzel</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Teuvo-Teravainen">Teuvo Teravainen</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brady-skjei">Brady Skjei</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brett-pesce">Brett Pesce</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tony-deangelo">Tony DeAngelo</a> are the notable free agents on their roster. Pesce has been rumored to be headed to free agency for a while, and Guentzel's asking price might simply be too much for the efficiency-focused Canes to afford. Also, I'd be surprised if the Canes bring back DeAngelo unless it is for something like the league minimum where he can be inserted as a seventh defenseman in a pinch. Expect some turnover on this roster as Carolina tries to figure out the right formula for getting over the Eastern Conference hump with its current core.
With all of these names (and more), keep in mind that the Canes will need to make re-signing <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/martin-necas">Martin Necas</a> a priority. Necas has been a bargain at $3 million per season and is arbitration-eligible this offseason. In his <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/13/free-agency-2024-salary-projections-for-the-top-100-free-agents-2/">Salary Cap Projections</a>, Alex has Necas projected for just over $7 million per season and Guentzel projected for nearly $10 million per season. Carolina will need to make some hard decisions.
Canucks 3, Oilers 2 (Canucks lead series 3-2)
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/J.T.-Miller">J.T. Miller</a>'s goal couldn't have been timelier. Miller scored the game-winning goal with just 32 seconds left in regulation to give the Canucks the lead in what has been a highly entertaining and emotionally charged Battle of Canada series.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">JT MILLER SCORES THE GO-AHEAD GOAL WITH LESS THAN A MINUTE LEFT! 🚨 <a href="https://t.co/2zjtNLRIvn">pic.twitter.com/2zjtNLRIvn</a>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1791329915859607742?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 17, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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Miller is now tied with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brock-boeser">Brock Boeser</a> for the team lead in playoff points (12 points in 11 games).
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/carson-soucy">Carson Soucy</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/phillip-di-giuseppe">Phillip Di Giuseppe</a> scored the other Canucks goals. Di Giuseppe in particular was very noticeable in this game, as he appeared to be extra fired up after his wife gave birth to a baby boy recently. Congratulations to PDG on what has been an amazing week.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/elias-pettersson">Elias Pettersson</a>'s struggles during the playoffs have been well documented, as he entered this game with just five points in 10 playoff games while looking less than his usual dominant self. After publicly criticizing Petey, Rick Tocchet decided to place him on an all-Swede line with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Elias-Lindholm">Elias Lindholm</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nils-hoglander">Nils Hoglander</a>, which looked like the right move. Pettersson finished with an assist on Miller's game-winning goal while taking three shots. This appeared to be one of Pettersson's better games of the playoffs, so expect this line to stick.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Evander-Kane">Evander Kane</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mattias-Janmark">Mattias Janmark</a> scored for the Oilers in the first period. More notably, the Oilers went 0-for-5 on the power play in this game, which is the first game that their lethal power play was held without a goal in these playoffs.
Kris Knoblauch was taking a risk by starting <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Calvin-Pickard">Calvin Pickard</a> in Game 4, but it was a necessary risk for the Oilers given the recent play of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/stuart-skinner">Stuart Skinner</a>. Pickard has posted back-to-back quality starts in Games 4 and 5, including saves on 32 of 35 shots. The Canucks carried the majority of the play in Game 5, but Pickard kept the game tied despite an onslaught from the Canucks at times (17 SOG in the second period). Expect Pickard to start Game 6 for the Oilers, as he has been the better of the Oilers' two goalies. He is certainly making his case for an NHL contract this offseason, as he will be a UFA.
After decades of opposing peaks and valleys, the Canucks/Oilers rivalry is finally a thing. If you prefer the old "1-vs-8" playoff format compared to the new divisional format, then consider that the Canucks and Oilers would have different opponents for this round. Not that other series wouldn't be entertaining, but rivalries are built in the playoffs. Buckle up for Game 6 on Saturday.
Is this a penalty? I won't hide the fact that I'm a Canucks fan, but this is one of the worst penalty calls of the playoffs. Even if "jumping" is a form of charging, Pettersson is trying to protect himself knowing he will be hit. I think Petey has something nagging that he's battling through, but we'll find out for sure when the playoffs finish for the Canucks.  
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Elias Pettersson gets two minutes for charging against Warren Foegele. <a href="https://t.co/J3x1ZIK3Y8">pic.twitter.com/J3x1ZIK3Y8</a>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1791311338767110271?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 17, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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–
Some quick news items:
Big Save Dave will be back in LA. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/david-rittich">David Rittich</a> has signed a one-year, $1 million contract to remain with the Kings. I would think that Rittich will be the backup for Los Angeles next season, as he posted career highs in all of goals-against average (2.15), save percentage (.921 SV%), and shutouts (3) in limited duty (24 GP).
Both <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Cam-Talbot">Cam Talbot</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pheonix-copley">Pheonix Copley</a> are unrestricted free agents, and I'd expect the Kings to move on from both with goaltending being a sore spot (sometimes you get what you pay for). I think there's deal to be had with Boston, where the framework would involve the Kings acquiring <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/linus-ullmark">Linus Ullmark</a> and the Bruins adding a forward off the Kings' roster. I'm not sure if the Kings have an ideal center for the Bruins, although <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/phillip-danault">Phillip Danault</a> seems like the most likely center to be traded. Unless the Bruins settle for a winger.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-ingram">Connor Ingram</a> was awarded the Bill Masterton Trophy on Wednesday. The award is presented to the player that best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey. I wrote about Ingram and Masterton nominee <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Frederik-Andersen">Frederik Andersen</a> in an earlier <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/03/ramblings-leafs-force-game-7-masterton-nominees-hellebuyck-dubois-may-3/">Ramblings</a>.
–
RIP Darren Dutchyshen, an absolute giant in Canadian sports broadcasting. He was larger than life both on and off camera. His highlight packages first on ITV Sports Night in Edmonton and then on Sportsdesk/SportsCentre on TSN were must-watch and always entertaining.
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<div class="video-shortcode"><iframe title="Darren Dutchyshen: 1966 - 2024" width="1778" height="1000" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/By2lALE800o?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
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–
Follow me on X <a href="https://twitter.com/Ian_Gooding">@Ian_Gooding</a> and <a href="https://www.threads.net/@goodsfantasyhockey">Threads</a>.
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<title>Ramblings: Hintz Out for Game 5; Evaluating New Jersey’s Season, Including The Brothers Hughes, Hischier, Meier, and More – May 16</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/16/ramblings-evaluating-new-jerseys-season-including-the-brothers-hughes-hischier-meier-and-more-may-16/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/16/ramblings-evaluating-new-jerseys-season-including-the-brothers-hughes-hischier-meier-and-more-may-16/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Clifford]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2024 06:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Hockey Rambling]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82976</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Prior to Game 4, Colorado got some bad news regarding Valeri Nichushkin but there was also a surprise scratch in Devon Toews. The good news is that Toews was back in the lineup for Game 5 and he is certainly one of the most important cogs of the team after Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. [...]]]></description>
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Prior to Game 4, Colorado got some bad news regarding <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Valeri-Nichushkin">Valeri Nichushkin</a> but there was also a surprise scratch in <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/devon-toews">Devon Toews</a>. The good news is that Toews was back in the lineup for Game 5 and he is certainly one of the most important cogs of the team after <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nathan-MacKinnon">Nathan MacKinnon</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cale-makar">Cale Makar</a>.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Gabriel-Landeskog">Gabriel Landeskog</a> was also <a href="https://twitter.com/jessemontano_/status/1790787683398152298">taking part</a> in drills at the team's morning skate, which is a good sign considering he's been off for nearly two years. There is still no timeline on his potential return.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/roope-hintz">Roope Hintz</a> missed Game 5 with an injury – he blocked a shot and left after the first period in Game 4 – but good news from Pete DeBoer is it doesn't seem serious:
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<div class="video-shortcode"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Roope Hintz will miss Game 5 tonight with an injury, but after he missed most of Game 4, Pete DeBoer isn't concerned. Game 7 hero Radek Faksa will return to the lineup in his place. More ⤵️<a href="https://t.co/qT93BnHIBS">https://t.co/qT93BnHIBS</a>— Lia Assimakopoulos (@Lassimak) <a href="https://twitter.com/Lassimak/status/1790779755492499744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 15, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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*
Readers will never believe this, but Dallas blew a lead against Colorado! It has been so unlike them in this series. Never saw it coming.
Anyway, Dallas had a 2-1 lead with under three minutes left in the second period and lost the game 5-3. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cale-makar">Cale Makar</a> scored twice (once on the PP) while totaling five shots while both <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nathan-MacKinnon">Nathan MacKinnon</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/artturi-lehkonen">Artturi Lehkonen</a> each had a goal and an assist with one power play point. Lehkonen finished the game with two shots, two blocks, two PIMs, and three hits.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/casey-mittelstadt">Casey Mittelstadt</a> scored the remaining goal for the Avs. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/miro-heiskanen">Miro Heiskanen</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Joe-Pavelski">Joe Pavelski</a>, and Logan Stankoven had the goals for the Stars.
Josh Manson had a big multi-cat night with an assist, five shots, a block, and eight hits. 
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexandar-georgiev">Alexandar Georgiev</a> saved 23 of 26 shots for the win. Game 6 is Friday night back in Colorado.
*
My offseason reviews of each of the 16 non-playoff teams continues today. We have already combed through the seasons of the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/23/ramblings-caufields-shooting-eklund-thrun-granlund-and-san-joses-season-april-23/">San Jose Sharks</a>, the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/25/ramblings-updates-on-pesce-and-bennett-reviewing-chicagos-season-including-kurashev-korchinski-and-mrazek-april-25/">Chicago Blackhawks</a>, the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/26/ramblings-vlasic-extended-anaheims-season-and-mintyukov-vatrano-gibson-and-more-april-26/">Anaheim Ducks</a>, the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/04/30/ramblings-reviewing-columbuss-season-including-gaudreau-fantilli-voronkov-jiricek-and-more-april-30/">Columbus Blue Jackets</a>, <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/02/ramblings-reviewing-montreals-season-including-suzuki-matheson-montembeault-and-more-may-2/">the Montreal Canadiens</a>, the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/07/ramblings-reviewing-the-seasons-of-keller-schmaltz-cooley-durzi-ingram-and-others-may-7/">Arizona Coyotes</a> (now in Utah), the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/09/ramblings-reviewing-ottawas-season-and-korpisalo-tkachuk-stutzle-chychrun-chabot-and-more-may-9/">Ottawa Senators</a>, the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/10/ramblings-reviewing-seattles-season-including-beniers-mccann-dunn-daccord-and-more-may-10/">Seattle Kraken</a>, and the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/14/ramblings-reviewing-calgarys-season-including-kadri-pospisil-huberdeau-weegar-andersson-and-more-may-14/">Calgary Flames</a>. Today, we are getting to the underachieving New Jersey Devils. Let's look at what went wrong, what went right, and where they go from here. This is all through a fantasy lens, of course.
Data from <a href="naturalstattrick.com">Natural Stat Trick</a>, <a href="evolving-hockey.com">Evolving Hockey</a>, <a href="hockeyviz.com">HockeyViz</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_profile.php">Frozen Tools</a> with salary cap data from <a href="capfriendly.com">Cap Friendly</a>. Any tracking data is from <a href="https://www.patreon.com/CSznajder/posts">AllThreeZones</a> unless otherwise noted.
What Went Wrong
It is unfair to discuss the 2023-24 New Jersey Devils and not discuss how many players they lost in their lineup due to injury or otherwise.
At the top of the list is <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Dougie-Hamilton">Dougie Hamilton</a>, who finished top-7 in Norris Trophy voting for three of the prior four seasons before 2023-24. He missed 62 games and at the time of his injury on November 28th, New Jersey was 16th in the league by points percentage and sixth in the league by 5-on-5 expected goal share; they were 25th by points percentage and 14th by expected goal share at 5-on-5 from November 29th onward.
Next up is <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jack-hughes">Jack Hughes</a>. He missed just 20 games, and was good production-wise in those 62 games with 27 goals, 74 points, 31 power play points, and 274 shots. He had shoulder surgery at the end of the season, but considering he missed time in early November with an 'upper-body' injury and had shoulder problems in 2022-23, it's fair to wonder how healthy he was for the 62 games he did play.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jonas-siegenthaler">Jonas Siegenthaler</a> missed 25 games and though he didn't have a great season otherwise, he had been a stalwart defensively for the team in the prior two seasons. In addition to the loss of Hamilton for three-quarters of the season, losing Siegenthaler for nearly one-third of the year compounded that veteran defenceman problem.
All of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nico-hischier">Nico Hischier</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/timo-meier">Timo Meier</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ondrej-Palat">Ondrej Palat</a> missed 11-13 games each. That isn't a huge deal in and of itself, but if Hughes was less-than-healthy all season (which seems likely), and those three top-6 forwards combined for another 35 games missed, it just puts a lot more stress on the bottom-6 to do well.
New Jersey's bottom-6 did well, for a time, as the team had a 5-on-5 goal share over 60% with Michael McLeod on the ice for his 45 games. However, he was arrested for and charged with sexual assault in January. In terms of just on-ice impact, it took a player that was having an excellent season on the third line out of the lineup for 37 games.
That is a lot of key players either missing significant time or playing injured, and that put a lot of pressure on forwards like <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Erik-Haula">Erik Haula</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dawson-mercer">Dawson Mercer</a>, and rookie defencemen <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/simon-nemec/">Šimon Nemec</a> and <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/luke-hughes/">Luke Hughes</a>. It should be instructive that with their lineup nearly intact for 20 games through to late November, they were 16th in the league by points percentage despite a team save percentage of .874. Just a save percentage of .900 would have likely that them on a 100-point pace. This was not a bad team, they just had too many key players missing too much time.
To clarify, the team itself wasn't bad, but the goaltending sure was. At the Trade Deadline on March 8th, New Jersey sat 31st in the league by overall save percentage (only Ottawa was worse). Considering they were 11th in the league by save percentage in 2022-23, the awful play of Akira Schmid, Nico Daws, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/vitek-vanecek">Vitek Vanecek</a> sunk their season, and none provided much fantasy value with all of them having save percentages of .895 or worse, and goals against averages of 3.15 or higher.
Part of the problem with the goaltending could probably be chalked up to what happened to the blue line. Hamilton was out from November 30th onward, and Siegenthaler missed over six weeks in the middle of the season. Those six weeks where both defencemen were out of the lineup saw Luke Hughes skating over 23:30 per night and Nemec pushing close to 20 minutes. As good as both players were (and will be), few teams will succeed defensively with two of their top minute-eaters being rookies.
While it's not really fair to evaluate this team as if they had a healthy, normal lineup for most of the year, there were still steps backwards. They created far fewer shots at 5-on-5, had less playmaking on their scoring chances, and greatly reduced their forechecking effectiveness compared to 2022-23:
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="280" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp-1024x280.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82977" style="width:1225px;height:auto" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp-200x55.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp-300x82.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp-400x109.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp-600x164.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp-768x210.png 768w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp-800x219.png 800w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp-1024x280.png 1024w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp-1200x328.png 1200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/NJDTeamComp.png 1403w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
All the same, it feels kind of weird to say a bunch of things went wrong when they had so little time with healthy skaters at the top of the lineup.
What Went Right
Despite a down year for four months, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/timo-meier">Timo Meier</a> caught fire late and finished with 28 goals, 52 points, 17 power play points, 207 shots, and 111 hits in 69 games. Those are declines from 2022-23 on a per-game basis, but he also lost 2:22 per game in ice time compared to his last year in San Jose. New Jersey was a much deeper team on the wing than the 2022-23 San Jose roster, and that led to much lower usage for scorer. In fact, on a 60-minute basis, Meier's points rate fell just 1.9% from his aggregate in 2022-23. He did shoot and hit less on a per-minute basis, but a full season would have seen him cruise past 240 shots and 130 hits. He is still a good multi-cat performer, but skating 17:30 a night rather than 19:30 a night is going to hurt the fantasy upside of any forward that draws a lot of value from peripheral stats.
It was a great year for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jesper-bratt">Jesper Bratt</a>, who played all 82 games and finished with 27 goals, 83 points (a career-high), 27 power play points (career high), 248 shots (also a career-high), and 66 hits (another career-high). He did that because he's a tremendous playmaker, can find his teammates for high-danger shots, plays quick off the rush, and is very good on zone entries:
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="747" height="564" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BrattCard.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82978" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BrattCard-200x151.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BrattCard-300x227.png 300w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BrattCard-400x302.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BrattCard-600x453.png 600w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BrattCard.png 747w" sizes="(max-width: 747px) 100vw, 747px" /></figure>
Despite all the injuries around him, Bratt was consistent for most of the season as he had double-digit points in every month except January when he still had five goals in 12 games. Most of that month was spent without Hamilton, Hughes, and Siegenthaler in the lineup, so we can excuse Bratt for a bit of a downturn in what was an excellent season otherwise.
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nico-hischier">Nico Hischier</a> had another good season with 27 goals, 67 points, 17 power play points, 182 shots, and 44 hits in 71 games. He may have reached 30 goals, 70 points, 20 PPPs, 200 shots, and 50 hits had he played 80 games, and may have got there regardless had the team been healthy.
Though he's known for his defence, the team was extremely proficient offensively with Hischier on the ice at 5-on-5 as he had the highest on-ice expected goals-for rate of any of their regular forwards. This is where the team shot from with the center:
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="581" height="691" src="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HischOI2324.png" alt="" class="wp-image-82979" srcset="https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HischOI2324-200x238.png 200w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HischOI2324-252x300.png 252w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HischOI2324-400x476.png 400w, https://dobberhockey.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HischOI2324.png 581w" sizes="(max-width: 581px) 100vw, 581px" /></figure>
It is similar to his 2022-23 season, but a bit better, and that gives a lot of hope moving forward that he can keep doing this as the team matures (and gets healthy) around him.
With 47 points in 82 games, Luke Hughes had a fantastic rookie season that led to a Calder Trophy nomination. While most of his production was on the power play (25/47 points), there were many good signs at 5-on-5: of 146 defencemen in the league with at least 250 tracked minutes at 5-on-5, here are Hughes's percentile ranks in various measures:
<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Player</td><td>D-Zone Touches</td><td>Exits w/ Possession%</td><td>Failed Exit%</td></tr><tr><td>Luke Hughes</td><td>79th</td><td>92nd</td><td>42nd</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>
The failed exits were a problem, but considering how much he touched the puck in the zone as a rookie defenceman on a non-playoff team, it's hard to argue with being very good at exiting the zone, even if there were turnovers. As he matures, and the rest of the team does the same, there will only be more goodness here. That he also took over the top PP role even with Hamilton in the lineup should tell us that there's very high fantasy upside, very soon, with the young blue liner.
Though he was traded at the Trade Deadline, we should note that <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tyler-Toffoli">Tyler Toffoli</a> had 26 goals in 61 games up to that point. That is a 35-goal pace over a full season and, like so many others, his production was likely affected by the injuries to the skaters in the lineup. Including his time in Winnipeg, Toffoli ended the season with 33 goals in 79 games, basically bang-on his goals-per-game pace from 2022-23. Now that he's a free agent, he could return to New Jersey if he wanted, but that's a bridge to cross another time.
Where They Go From Here
The Devils fired head coach Lindy Ruff after the season though, like most players on his roster, his standing was likely diminished by the upheaval to their roster and poor goaltending. They will have a new coach, but the Devils played a very fast, counter-attacking game under Ruff, and that was great for fantasy players. It is hard to imagine a coach who can improve on that, but let's wait until they name their new bench boss before making determinations.
Starting in net, it'll be interesting to see who the team pairs with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jake-Allen">Jake Allen</a>. Going back to the 2023 playoffs, goaltending has been a significant issue for this team and just average goaltending may have gotten them close to a playoff spot in 2023-24, injuries elsewhere or not. Allen is a solid netminder, and with the right team in front of him he can help them get back to the postseason, but it's a wonder if they pair him with one of Daws/Schmid or go looking in free agency. My guess is the latter, and that leads to a split timeshare in net for 2024-25.
On the blue line, we only mentioned Nemec briefly because he really didn't contribute much for fantasy – 19 points, 73 shots, 105 blocks, and 22 hits in 60 games – but he had a solid season as a teenage rookie. Add him to an improving Hughes, a returning Hamilton, and a healthy Siegenthaler, and the top-4 looks good for now.
New Jersey has Kevin Bahl and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/john-marino">John Marino</a> signed for 2024-25, so if they add to the blue line, it's likely depth (as they did with <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/colin-miller">Colin Miller</a> at the Deadline) because they still have <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/santeri-hatakka/">Santeri Hatakka</a> in the minors and signed <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/player/seamus-casey/">Seamus Casey</a> recently. They likely won't make significant overhauls on the blue line this summer.
It should be a curious offseason for New Jersey. They have nearly $20M in cap space, but <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dawson-mercer">Dawson Mercer</a> is up for an extension. If he signs some kind of short-term bridge deal, they could still have $15-$16M in cap space and that enables them to make a big splash. They do have a lot of players signed long-term, but spending $41M on <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jack-hughes">Jack Hughes</a>, Hischier, Meier, Bratt, and Hamilton for the next three years is not a bad way to spend that space. They could make a big splash if they wanted, but with so many top forwards signed long term (especially once they get Mercer a new deal), they may look to rebuild the depth instead.
New Jersey does have to figure out their bottom-6 forwards. How effective Palat can continue being at the age of 33 is a fair question, McLeod is not coming back, Alex Holtz hasn't taken the step forward they've wanted from him (16 goals aside), and Haula is solid defensively but not a game-changing depth forward.
It seems likely that rather than going after a <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-guentzel">Jake Guentzel</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sam-Reinhart">Sam Reinhart</a>, or <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-montour">Brandon Montour</a>-level free agent, that New Jersey takes their $15M-ish in cap space (after signing Mercer) and builds out the bottom-third of their roster. They just saw what happens when top players miss extended time, and don't want to repeat the 2023-24 season if injuries strike again.
The one big change that may come is with Holtz. He was not a favourite of either Ruff or Travis Green, often being stuck with bottom-6 forwards. This was his age-22 season and he's still on his ELC. There would be trade value if they want to make a splash for a similar RFA, whether up front or on the blue line. It is by no means a certainty they trade him, but considering his standing on the team and where they want to be in 2024-25, it does make sense.
Barring a defence-first coach being brought in, this should be a bastion of fantasy goodness this coming season. <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jack-hughes">Jack Hughes</a> had shoulder surgery but <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-jersey-devils/latest-news/official-new-jersey-devils-jack-hughes-done-for-season-will-have-shoulder-surgery">the expectation</a> is he will be fine for training camp, Hamilton was already skating by the end of the season, Luke Hughes has the top power play role, Hischier is a steady producer, and there are still highly productive wingers with Bratt and Meier. This should be a top-10 scoring team once again and with their power play regulars back (and healthy), there should be production in all offensive phases. With a down year in 2023-24, fantasy drafts this coming September could see discounts on many high-end fantasy options, so don't read too much into what happened this season. Wait to see who they hire as a coach, have faith in the talent, and reap the rewards come draft day.
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<title>Top 100 Roto Rankings: May 2024</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/15/top-100-roto-rankings-may-2024/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/15/top-100-roto-rankings-may-2024/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ian Gooding]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Wed, 15 May 2024 14:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Hockey Rankings]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82967</guid>
<description><![CDATA[After a hiatus for the month of April, the Roto Rankings are back. The stat categories for the Roto Rankings are as follows: Goals, Assists, Special Teams Points, Shots on Goal, Penalty Minutes, Hits, and Blocked Shots. These rankings are different from keeper rankings in that they don’t extend beyond one season. With the [...]]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
After a hiatus for the month of April, the Roto Rankings are back.   
The stat categories for the Roto Rankings are as follows: Goals, Assists, Special Teams Points, Shots on Goal, Penalty Minutes, Hits, and Blocked Shots. These rankings are different from keeper rankings in that they don't extend beyond one season. With the 2023-24 regular season now in the books, these rankings could be considered very preliminary rankings for the 2024-25 season.
For goalie rankings, please check out the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/2023/08/24/top-100-keeper-league-goaltenders-august-2023/">Top 100 Keeper League Goaltender</a> rankings for relative goalie values.
Are there any players that you believe are ranked too high or too low? Did we miss anyone in the top 100, or is there a player there that probably shouldn't be? Do you like the new changes? Let us know in the comments below, and we will consider your feedback when compiling next month's rankings.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-regular has-small-font-size"><table><tbody><tr><td>Rank</td><td>Name</td><td>Position</td><td>Last Month</td><td>Change</td><td>Comments</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a></td><td>F</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nikita-Kucherov">Nikita Kucherov</a></td><td>F</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nathan-MacKinnon">Nathan MacKinnon</a></td><td>F</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/auston-matthews">Auston Matthews</a></td><td>F</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/David-Pastrnak">David Pastrnak</a></td><td>F</td><td>5</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Leon-Draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a></td><td>F</td><td>6</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/J.T.-Miller">J.T. Miller</a></td><td>F</td><td>7</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mikko-Rantanen">Mikko Rantanen</a></td><td>F</td><td>8</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cale-makar">Cale Makar</a></td><td>D</td><td>9</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/quinn-hughes">Quinn Hughes</a></td><td>D</td><td>11</td><td>1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Artemi-Panarin">Artemi Panarin</a></td><td>F</td><td>12</td><td>1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matthew-tkachuk">Matthew Tkachuk</a></td><td>F</td><td>13</td><td>1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brady-tkachuk">Brady Tkachuk</a></td><td>F</td><td>14</td><td>1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jack-hughes">Jack Hughes</a></td><td>F</td><td>15</td><td>1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/elias-pettersson">Elias Pettersson</a></td><td>F</td><td>10</td><td>-5</td><td>Goal-scoring slide that has crept into playoffs</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Roman-Josi">Roman Josi</a></td><td>D</td><td>19</td><td>3</td><td>Norris Trophy finalist that was elite down the stretch</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/william-nylander">William Nylander</a></td><td>F</td><td>16</td><td>-1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sidney-Crosby">Sidney Crosby</a></td><td>F</td><td>17</td><td>-1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/evan-bouchard">Evan Bouchard</a></td><td>D</td><td>18</td><td>-1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jason-robertson">Jason Robertson</a></td><td>F</td><td>20</td><td>0</td><td>Numbers fallen from elite to simply good in 2023-24</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/rasmus-dahlin">Rasmus Dahlin</a></td><td>D</td><td>21</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Filip-Forsberg">Filip Forsberg</a></td><td>F</td><td>22</td><td>0</td><td>Career highs in virtually every category in 2023-24</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kirill-kaprizov">Kirill Kaprizov</a></td><td>F</td><td>23</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Aleksander-Barkov">Aleksander Barkov</a></td><td>F</td><td>24</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sebastian-aho/CAR">Sebastian Aho</a></td><td>F</td><td>25</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sam-Reinhart">Sam Reinhart</a></td><td>F</td><td>26</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/noah-dobson">Noah Dobson</a></td><td>D</td><td>27</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Alex-Ovechkin">Alex Ovechkin</a></td><td>F</td><td>28</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tim-stutzle">Tim Stutzle</a></td><td>F</td><td>29</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/zach-hyman">Zach Hyman</a></td><td>F</td><td>30</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-guentzel">Jake Guentzel</a></td><td>F</td><td>31</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/adam-fox">Adam Fox</a></td><td>D</td><td>32</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>33</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jesper-bratt">Jesper Bratt</a></td><td>F</td><td>33</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>34</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mika-Zibanejad">Mika Zibanejad</a></td><td>F</td><td>35</td><td>1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>35</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/josh-morrissey">Josh Morrissey</a></td><td>D</td><td>37</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>36</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jack-Eichel">Jack Eichel</a></td><td>F</td><td>38</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>37</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Steven-Stamkos">Steven Stamkos</a></td><td>F</td><td>42</td><td>5</td><td>16 G in last 19 GP</td></tr><tr><td>38</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Vincent-Trocheck">Vincent Trocheck</a></td><td>F</td><td>40</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>39</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Victor-Hedman">Victor Hedman</a></td><td>D</td><td>54</td><td>15</td><td>Strong bounce-back campaign in 2023-24</td></tr><tr><td>40</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mitchell-marner">Mitch Marner</a></td><td>F</td><td>NR</td><td></td><td>Return from injury</td></tr><tr><td>41</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-Nugent-Hopkins">Ryan Nugent-Hopkins</a></td><td>F</td><td>43</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>42</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/adrian-kempe">Adrian Kempe</a></td><td>F</td><td>44</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>43</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/travis-konecny">Travis Konecny</a></td><td>F</td><td>45</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>44</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kevin-fiala">Kevin Fiala</a></td><td>F</td><td>46</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>45</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Erik-Karlsson">Erik Karlsson</a></td><td>D</td><td>47</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>46</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/clayton-keller">Clayton Keller</a></td><td>F</td><td>48</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>47</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/andrei-svechnikov">Andrei Svechnikov</a></td><td>F</td><td>49</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>48</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brayden-point">Brayden Point</a></td><td>F</td><td>53</td><td>5</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>49</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/moritz-seider">Moritz Seider</a></td><td>D</td><td>41</td><td>-8</td><td>Multicategory wonder, but scoring not elite</td></tr><tr><td>50</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brock-boeser">Brock Boeser</a></td><td>F</td><td>55</td><td>5</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>51</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mathew-barzal">Mathew Barzal</a></td><td>F</td><td>56</td><td>5</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>52</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Chris-Kreider">Chris Kreider</a></td><td>F</td><td>57</td><td>5</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>53</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Dylan-Larkin">Dylan Larkin</a></td><td>F</td><td>59</td><td>6</td><td>Return from injury</td></tr><tr><td>54</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tage-thompson">Tage Thompson</a></td><td>F</td><td>58</td><td>4</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>55</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kyle-connor">Kyle Connor</a></td><td>F</td><td>60</td><td>5</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>56</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/charlie-mcavoy">Charlie McAvoy</a></td><td>D</td><td>50</td><td>-6</td><td>0 PTS in last 7 playoff games</td></tr><tr><td>57</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/roope-hintz">Roope Hintz</a></td><td>F</td><td>39</td><td>-18</td><td>Reader feedback – too high</td></tr><tr><td>58</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/John-Carlson">John Carlson</a></td><td>D</td><td>51</td><td>-7</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>59</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alex-debrincat">Alex DeBrincat</a></td><td>F</td><td>34</td><td>-25</td><td>DET numbers strikingly similar to OTT</td></tr><tr><td>60</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matt-boldy">Matt Boldy</a></td><td>F</td><td>61</td><td>1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>61</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brad-Marchand">Brad Marchand</a></td><td>F</td><td>36</td><td>-25</td><td>Age-related decline for three seasons</td></tr><tr><td>62</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/joel-eriksson-ek">Joel Eriksson Ek</a></td><td>F</td><td>49</td><td>-13</td><td>Return from injury</td></tr><tr><td>63</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Evander-Kane">Evander Kane</a></td><td>F</td><td>52</td><td>-11</td><td>Great banger, but scoring declining</td></tr><tr><td>64</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/John-Tavares">John Tavares</a></td><td>F</td><td>63</td><td>-1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>65</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/owen-tippett">Owen Tippett</a></td><td>F</td><td>64</td><td>-1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>66</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jordan-kyrou">Jordan Kyrou</a></td><td>F</td><td>65</td><td>-1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>67</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mark-Scheifele">Mark Scheifele</a></td><td>F</td><td>66</td><td>-1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>68</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/nico-hischier">Nico Hischier</a></td><td>F</td><td>67</td><td>-1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>69</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/drake-batherson">Drake Batherson</a></td><td>F</td><td>59</td><td>-10</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>70</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Darnell-Nurse">Darnell Nurse</a></td><td>D</td><td>70</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>71</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Kris-Letang">Kris Letang</a></td><td>D</td><td>71</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>72</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Evgeni-Malkin">Evgeni Malkin</a></td><td>F</td><td>72</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>73</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nikolaj-Ehlers">Nikolaj Ehlers</a></td><td>F</td><td>73</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>74</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pavel-buchnevich">Pavel Buchnevich</a></td><td>F</td><td>74</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>75</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/miro-heiskanen">Miro Heiskanen</a></td><td>D</td><td>75</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>76</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mackenzie-weegar">Mackenzie Weegar</a></td><td>D</td><td>76</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>77</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-bedard">Connor Bedard</a></td><td>F</td><td>77</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>78</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/carter-verhaeghe">Carter Verhaeghe</a></td><td>F</td><td>78</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>79</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nazem-Kadri">Nazem Kadri</a></td><td>F</td><td>79</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>80</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brent-Burns">Brent Burns</a></td><td>D</td><td>80</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>81</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mats-Zuccarello">Mats Zuccarello</a></td><td>F</td><td>81</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>82</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jamie-Benn">Jamie Benn</a></td><td>F</td><td>82</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>83</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alex-tuch">Alex Tuch</a></td><td>F</td><td>83</td><td>0</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>84</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mike-matheson">Michael Matheson</a></td><td>D</td><td>85</td><td>1</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>85</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Anze-Kopitar">Anze Kopitar</a></td><td>F</td><td>87</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>86</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-montour">Brandon Montour</a></td><td>D</td><td>88</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>87</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jonathan-marchessault">Jonathan Marchessault</a></td><td>F</td><td>89</td><td>2</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>88</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tom-Wilson">Tom Wilson</a></td><td>F</td><td>69</td><td>-19</td><td>Latest suspension illustrates risk in rostering</td></tr><tr><td>89</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/bo-horvat">Bo Horvat</a></td><td>F</td><td>92</td><td>3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>90</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Brock-Nelson">Brock Nelson</a></td><td>F</td><td>93</td><td>3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>91</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-O-Reilly">Ryan O’Reilly</a></td><td>F</td><td>94</td><td>3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>92</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/frank-vatrano">Frank Vatrano</a></td><td>F</td><td>95</td><td>3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>93</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Matt-Duchene">Matt Duchene</a></td><td>F</td><td>96</td><td>3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>94</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/robert-thomas">Robert Thomas</a></td><td>F</td><td>97</td><td>3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>95</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/martin-necas">Martin Necas</a></td><td>F</td><td>98</td><td>3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>96</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/cole-caufield">Cole Caufield</a></td><td>F</td><td>99</td><td>3</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>97</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/wyatt-johnston">Wyatt Johnston</a></td><td>F</td><td>NR</td><td></td><td>Playoff performance adds him to list</td></tr><tr><td>98</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/timo-meier">Timo Meier</a></td><td>F</td><td>NR</td><td></td><td>Much improved during final month</td></tr><tr><td>99</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/filip-hronek">Filip Hronek</a></td><td>D</td><td>68</td><td>-31</td><td>0 PTS in playoffs</td></tr><tr><td>100</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Patrick-Kane">Patrick Kane</a></td><td>F</td><td>100</td><td>0</td><td>Status for next season uncertain</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Out</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Joe-Pavelski">Joe Pavelski</a></td><td>F</td><td>86</td><td></td><td>Lack of playoff production, will be 40 next season</td></tr><tr><td></td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/blake-coleman">Blake Coleman</a></td><td>F</td><td>91</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Aaron-Ekblad">Aaron Ekblad</a></td><td>D</td><td>84</td><td></td><td>30-point pace over 51 games</td></tr><tr><td></td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/sean-durzi">Sean Durzi</a></td><td>D</td><td>90</td><td></td><td>Sub 40-point pace during second half</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Injured</td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Dougie-Hamilton">Dougie Hamilton</a></td><td>D</td><td>40</td><td></td><td>Out indefinitely (torn pec)</td></tr><tr><td></td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/patrik-laine">Patrik Laine</a></td><td>F</td><td>94</td><td></td><td>On NHLPA Assistance program</td></tr><tr><td></td><td><a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Valeri-Nichushkin">Valeri Nichushkin</a></td><td>F</td><td>62</td><td></td><td>On NHLPA Assistance program</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>
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<title>Forum Buzz: Marner, Dobson, Podkolzin, Svechnikov, Sorokin, Crosby, Tavares, Meier, Boeser & More</title>
<link>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/15/forum-buzz-marner-dobson-podkolzin-svechnikov-sorokin-crosby-tavares-meier-boeser-more/</link>
<comments>https://dobberhockey.com/2024/05/15/forum-buzz-marner-dobson-podkolzin-svechnikov-sorokin-crosby-tavares-meier-boeser-more/#respond</comments>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rick Roos]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Wed, 15 May 2024 11:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Roos Lets Loose]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dobberhockey.com/?p=82985</guid>
<description><![CDATA[Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally [...]]]></description>
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Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the <a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/index.php">DobberHockey Forums</a> and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/">main site</a> and are also normally covered in the next day’s <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Hockey-Rambling/">Ramblings</a>, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly <a href="https://dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/">Capped column</a>. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.
Given the lack of negative response, I am going to make a "Who am I?" question part of each Forum Buzz column. If you missed the explanation last month, there is a <a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?261142-Who-Am-I-Game-Hockey">thread</a> in the Forums where someone thinks of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going. So for your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" for this month. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.
CLUE #1 – I'm a retired North America forward
CLUE #2 – Despite being a first round pick, I spent two seasons in the AHL and debuted in the NHL right before I turned 22
CLUE #3 – I played in 83 games one season despite not having been traded during the season
CLUE #4 – I had one point per game season in my career, and followed that with a 65+ point pace season, yet I was still traded less than two seasons later
CLUE #5 – I played two seasons for a team then later in my career returned to play for that team again, but by then they had a different name despite not having changed their location
CLUE #6 – In my point per game season, I averaged just under one PPPt per every other game, but I never again bested 20 PPPts in any single season
CLUE #7 – After finishing my NHL career, consisting of just under 1000 total games, I played one season in Europe
CLUE #8 – Immediately after I retired I got into coaching
CLUE #9 – I coached one NHL team for four full seasons, with them making the playoffs only once while I was at the helm, was an interim head coach in 2023-24, and am now a head coach once again, albeit for a different team than the one for which I was interim head coach
Hopefully you got it. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who it is. Now onto the regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming.
<a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?264315-Keep-which-6">Topic #1</a> – In a 12 team H2H Most Cats Wins; Keep 6 (winner keeps 7) league with categories of G A PPP +/- SHP SOG HIT BLK PIM // W SV GAA SV% SHO and rosters of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, plus 5 bench, which six should be kept among <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Connor-McDavid">Connor McDavid</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/J.T.-Miller">J.T. Miller</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sidney-Crosby">Sidney Crosby</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/timo-meier">Timo Meier</a> (these four are favored by the person who posted the thread), <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/matt-boldy">Matt Boldy</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alex-debrincat">Alex DeBrincat</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/alexis-lafreniere">Alexis Lafreniere</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/noah-dobson">Noah Dobson</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brock-boeser">Brock Boeser</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/John-Tavares">John Tavares</a>?
McDavid and Miller not only are slam dunk keeps, but likely two of the top-five forwards in the format. I worry that Miller could start to break down given his style of play; however, until that does happen, he's multi-cat gold…..heck….platinum! As for the other two who are favored, I'm not saying no, but I'm nor prepared to put them in the must keep pile.
I'm for sure making room for Dobson though. Not only would it be unwise to fail to keep a d-man in a league where rearguards comprise 40% of starting skater line-ups, but Dobson, like <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mathew-barzal">Mathew Barzal</a>, was finally unshackled this season. Yes, he fared worse once Patrick Roy took over, but I wonder if it was more about Dobson just wearing down in view of the fact his ice time was up more than four minutes versus last season. Come 2023-24 he should do at worst the same, and quite possibly a good bit better. He's a lock.
That's half the six. Upon reconsideration, I do think Meier passes muster. Had he not awoken from his season-long slumber in the last quarter I might be hesitant; yet not only was there that, but it was also revealed he was playing hurt for a chunk of the campaign. He likely won't be as much of an overall multi-cat stud with New Jersey, but his points could rise, making it a wash. Thus, he is one of the keeps in my book.
After all is said and done, I do keep Crosby. Not only was his SOG rate higher than it had been in nearly a decade, but his SH% was unaffected. Plus, once <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-guentzel">Jake Guentzel</a> was moved Crosby seemed to realize he had to "do it himself" more, and lo-and-behold he had by far the best quarter of his season. Also, the Pens are going to do anything and everything they can to have Crosby be a point per game player next season, so he can break the all time record that is held by Wayne Gretzky. So although there's gray in Crosby's beard, I think he is still a player who deserves to be kept.
The last spot is a toughie. Tavares will be a 2025 UFA, and, as such, will be motivated to play well. He also still shoots a great deal and should remain part of Toronto's PP1, as if the team blows things up chances are it won't lead to Tavares getting a new address given his Cap Hit. On the other hand, Boeser made great strides this season; yet when all was said and done he had only 27 points in his last 37 games and his SH% was 19.1%, this from a player whose career rate was barely above 13.0% coming into this season. Still, Boeser does give the chance for a stack with Miller, which has lure. But Tavares averages nearly a SOG more per game, plus hits more. So I'd probably opt for him, but it's close enough that I could see Boeser being the choice too in hopes this was a stepping stone season and that he'll be glued to Miller next season.
<a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?264278-Which-6-would-you-keep">Topic #2</a> – In a 10 team, H2H – 1 win league with categories of G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, H, B, Wins, GAA, SV%, SHO (4 weekly goalie appearances minimum), and with rosters 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA, which six of the following should be kept:
C: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sam-Bennett">Sam Bennett</a> LW: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Evander-Kane">Evander Kane</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/kirill-kaprizov">Kirill Kaprizov</a> LW/C: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Leon-Draisaitl">Leon Draisaitl</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tim-stutzle">Tim Stutzle</a> RW: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mitchell-marner">Mitch Marner</a> RW/C: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tage-thompson">Tage Thompson</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/martin-necas">Martin Necas</a> RW/LW: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/andrei-svechnikov">Andrei Svechnikov</a> D: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/rasmus-dahlin">Rasmus Dahlin</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/evan-bouchard">Evan Bouchard</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/mikhail-sergachev">Mikhail Sergachev</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Radko-Gudas">Radko Gudas</a> G: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Andrei-Vasilevskiy">Andrei Vasilevskiy</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/stuart-skinner">Stuart Skinner</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/filip-gustavsson">Filip Gustavsson</a>
As usual, let's get the sure things out of the way, those being Draisaitl, Kaprizov, and Bouchard. Who else is in the conversation? I'd say Marner, Stutzle, Thompson, Dahlin, Svechnikov, Vasy, and even Skinner.
Looking at that list, in a league where 60 players are kept, and where goalies account for 40% of the categories, a case could be made that all are "deserving" of being kept. Given that, the way to go is keeps plus trades.
The first trade I'd make is Svechnikov and Vasy for a goalie who's younger and with better peripherals and lower mileage. Try to pry <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/igor-shesterkin">Igor Shesterkin</a> out of the hands of his owner. Or if not Shesterkin, then <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a>. Vasy did do better as the season unfolded, but his stats have been significantly worse for a couple of seasons, plus Tampa for sure has peaked. His name recognition still holds value, and so does Svech's, even though he continues to stay stuck in neutral when it comes to production. Although the Carolina top six might have up to two departures in the forms of <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-guentzel">Jake Guentzel</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Teuvo-Teravainen">Teuvo Teravainen</a>, I don't see Svech being a major beneficiary. He just does not seem to have "it". Plus, looking at wingers who had a scoring rate of 0.85 to 1.0 points per game from ages 19 to 23, no one else in NHL history did so as many times as Svech's four, and since 2000-01 the only others to do so three times were <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/patrik-laine">Patrik Laine</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Johnny-Gaudreau">Johnny Gaudreau</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Patrick-Kane">Patrick Kane</a>. In the case of Kane, he was a victim of being on some bad Blackhawk teams, but the other two are cautionary tales, and suggest that Svech, having not gotten better as yet, is unlikely to do so down the road, plus he's venturing into Band-Aid-Boy territory, which could only hurt his value even more. Trade him – and Vasy – before Svech's new car smell wears off. If one of those goalies can't be obtained, then settle for picks.
That leaves Marner, Stutzle, Thompson, Dahlin and Skinner for three spots, or two if the trade of Vas and Svech lands a netminder. The one that sticks out, and not in a good way, is Skinner. With half the goalie categories not being volume-based, he loses a good bit of his luster, as I see him as perhaps the second coming of peak Pens era <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Marc-Andre-Fleury">Marc-Andre Fleury</a>, but not yet nearly as well rounded. He might still improve; but for now he's not a keeper given your other options.
Marner is a keeper. Yes, he's a scapegoat right now, and a seismic shift could be coming in Toronto, where Marner may find himself on another team come October. Even if that happens, we're talking about one of the most consistent fantasy performers of recent years, and a player who's among the top ten in points per game among active players. Also, here's the list of other wingers in NHL history who scored at a 1.1+ point per game pace in each of their ages 21-26 seasons: Jaromir Jagr, Luc Robitaille, Mike Bossy, and Jari Kurri. Although I wouldn't say Marner is a carbon copy of any, it's still fine company in which to find oneself. He's a keep.
It boils down to Dahlin, Thompson, and Stutzle for two or perhaps one spot. All three are coming off disappointing seasons versus expectations. By Q4 Thompson had started to right his ship, while Dahlin, despite being disappointing points-wise, still stuffed the stat sheet. Stutzle had injury issues for at least part of the season, and was snake-bit on the PP. Personally, I like the Sabres to rebound big time, so the lure of both Dahlin and Thompson is attractive, as is the fact that Thompson, like Stutzle, has dual position eligibility. Those would be my two; and if it could only be one, I'd opt for Dahlin, as he was too good in 2022-23 to not be able to reach great heights again. I'd certainly try to package Stutzle and Skinner in trade for picks though too.
<a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?264255-Twin-Goalie-Towers-Keeper-Conumdrum">Topic #3</a> – A GM who won their 12 team league can keep 6 players, with each needing to be kept in the round they were drafted/owned, but no more than two from rounds 1-5. Rosters are 2LW, 2RW, 2C, 4D, 2U, 2G and categories are G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, Hit, Blk; GS, W, GAA, SA, SV%. Their options are:
 <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-hellebuyck">Connor Hellebuyck</a> – 2nd round
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/thatcher-demko">Thatcher Demko</a> – 3rd round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Nikita-Kucherov">Nikita Kucherov</a> – 4th round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/joel-eriksson-ek">Joel Eriksson Ek</a> – 6th round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/noah-dobson">Noah Dobson</a> – 7th round
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/brandon-montour">Brandon Montour</a> – 8th round
<a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/travis-konecny">Travis Konecny</a> – 10th round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jason-robertson">Jason Robertson</a> – 11th round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sam-Bennett">Sam Bennett</a> – 15th round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Tom-Wilson">Tom Wilson</a> – 15th round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jake-Allen">Jake Allen</a> – 18th round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jonathan-Drouin">Jonathan Drouin</a> – 18th round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/dylan-strome">Dylan Strome</a> – 18th round <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pavel-zacha">Pavel Zacha</a> – 18th round
In the thread it was indicated this will be a snake draft. That is important since Hellebuyck would replace the 13th overall pick, whereas Demko would replace the 37th. That's a major difference. Although Hellebuyck is true #1 big time goalie, he's also over two years older than Demko and comes with a lot of miles given how much he's played. Demko took major strides and Vancouver is poised to be a strong team; so in view of a larger than it would appear difference between keeping them, I'd go with Demko. Keeping both is not an option according to league rules, as only two players from rounds 1-5 can be kept, and Kucherov is a lock.
The only other lock is Robertson, leaving two more spots. I can see the lures of Wilson and Bennett give their stat stuffing; however, I don't think either one is worthy of a spot in such a shallow league. It would be one thing if they could be counted upon for 65+ points, but with Wilson he still hits and blocks shots, plus shoots, but his points are nosediving. Bennett is not trending in the right direction either, and that includes in the multi-cat areas.
The big question is whether to keep a defenseman. They comprise two of 12 starters, so it goes to figure that one of six of them should be a keeper. Also, the fact that Dobson, who had not yet broken out, was a 7th rounder before last season means the price for rearguard is likely quite high. Between him and Montour, I'm keeping Dobson, since although Montour did right his ship pretty well after a bumpy return, his stock will have fallen enough to put him into redraft territory, whereas with Dobson as I noted above he did quite well and might have only slowed as the season wore on due to his ice time having risen so much and becoming worn down.
That leaves one spot. Eriksson Ek is quite attractive at round 6th, and likely "worth it" given all he brings to the table. But is he enough better than Strome or Zacha in the 18th round? Zacha treaded water, but still is likely to remain a top six fixture for Boston, and he hits. Strome is not good at all in multi-cat, but is trending up in points despite Washington trending down. Still, he might have a ceiling given the team he's on. One thing again is Eriksson Ek is more like a round five pick in that he'd be selected 61st. Is he that much better than what could be had at that spot, especially with the rule where no team can keep more than two players who were drafted in rounds 1-5? It's close, but probably not, plus the Wild will be able to spend next summer so Eriksson Ek's value might take a hit after this season. I think I'd going Zacha. It's not a sexy keep, but a safe one.
<a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?263954-Keeper-Help-REP-Given!">Topic #4</a> – For a 15 team, keep 8, points league (9F, 4D, 2G) where young d-men are coveted, who should be kept among: <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jesper-bratt">Jesper Bratt</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/roope-hintz">Roope Hintz</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/clayton-keller">Clayton Keller</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Ryan-Nugent-Hopkins">Ryan Nugent-Hopkins</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Mark-Scheifele">Mark Scheifele</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/rasmus-dahlin">Rasmus Dahlin</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Dougie-Hamilton">Dougie Hamilton</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-oettinger">Jake Oettinger</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Jonathan-Huberdeau">Jonathan Huberdeau</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/timo-meier">Timo Meier</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jake-sanderson">Jake Sanderson</a>?
A total of 120 players are kept, and keepers presumably represent over half of each team's starting line-up. Why are those important details? Because that, plus each team's keeper options, will dictate whether their keepers should be dictated by winning now, building for the future, or some sort of middle ground. My view is if this team simply kept its best players, it would have keepers that would rank the team in the 10th through 15th range. In other words, this team should make keeper decisions with the future more so in mind than the present, and, in turn, also consider trading players with immediate value for more picks or players who stand to be productive for longer, even if they're less productive right now.
Scheifele, for example, is a perfect trade candidate, as he should make some team's top eight, but is of little use to this team in view of it not competing in the near term. I'm also moving RNH, who – and this surprised me – is now 31 years old. But GMs will still have recent enough memories of what RNH did in 2022-23 as to overvalue him. Seize upon that and get better value to him than he should deserve to net you. In a perfect world, Huberdeau, Meier, and Hamilton would be dealt too; however, their values are too low and can only rise, so I'd consider keeping one or more or even all of them with the intention of selling midseason or next offseason when hopefully they'll have rebounded.
Ideal keepers are Oettinger, Dahlin, and Keller, as they should still be quite good when this team is ready to compete a few years down the road. Even if young D weren't prized, I'd keep Sanderson, whose future is poised to be very bright. That leaves four spots for Bratt, Hintz, Hamilton, Huberdeau, and Meier. Probably the one to toss back is Huberdeau, as he just seems lost. Yes, Meier is not a great points only option; however, he bounced back significantly in the fourth quarter, giving hope he could shine again. Let Huberdeau go back into the draft, as the chances of him rising to a level higher than Meier or Hamilton is too remote, and Hintz and Bratt are nice in that they can be either keeps or trades depending on how things progress with this team's rebuild.
<a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?264293-Sorokin-vs-Patrick-Roy">Topic #5</a> – We saw from the regular season and playoffs that Patrick Roy was not afraid to turn to <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Semyon-Varlamov">Semyon Varlamov</a> over <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/ilya-sorokin">Ilya Sorokin</a>. Could that stretch into next season too? On the one hand Sorokin's new deal kicks in at $8.25M per season for 2024-25, which is exactly three times what Varlamov makes, but on the other Varlamov is inked for three more seasons.
Sorokin owners, already not thrilled with him having taken a step back over the majority of the season, became downright concerned when new coach Roy started to look to <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Semyon-Varlamov">Semyon Varlamov</a> quite a bit, including in the very important Stanley Cup playoffs. What they should've realized is this was foreseeable.
Why is that? When Roy coached the Avs to 51 wins in 2013-14, who was the #1 backstop? None other than Varlamov. Seeing Roy look to Varlamov, even ten seasons later, should not have come as a shock. The big question though is what will happen next, since Varlamov is inked to a deal that should indeed keep him in Long Island for three more seasons.
As noted, Sorokin's new deal kicks in next season, putting him into the top echelon of goalies in terms of cap hits, and threefolding Varly's deal. If we look at 2023-24, 11 active goalies made more than $5M, and other than <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Philipp-Grubauer">Philipp Grubauer</a> and Merzlikins, both of whom were injured for stretches of the season, all played 46+ games. And if we just focus on the three who will be making in the neighborhood of Srokin's salary next season, they are <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Sergei-Bobrovsky">Sergei Bobrovsky</a>, <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/connor-hellebuyck">Connor Hellebuyck</a>, and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/Andrei-Vasilevskiy">Andrei Vasilevskiy</a>, each of whom is a stalwart in net for their team. To think that Sorokin is going to be pushed aside is not realistic.
The other thing to keep in mind is he wasn't as bad as he seemed. He still had a double digit positive GSAA, and he had a .909 SV% despite facing 40+ SOG per game a whopping 12 times in his 56 games played, when no one else who appeared in more games had to face that many even seven times. And despite this, and only having two shutouts, he had eight additional games with a SV% of .950 or more. And his seven games of a SV% under .850 were tied for the lowest among any goalie who started more than 50 games last season. Yes, Sorokin is going to start being paid an amount that will require him to step up even more; however, the Isles did not do him any favors as a team.
The issue is the 2024-25 Isles don't stand to be much better, as all their UFAs are inexpensive, such that they won't be likely to bring in high priced talent. But with Roy able to have a full season to shape things, there is reason to hope for improvement. In the end, Sorokin should be the go to guy despite the presence of Varlamov and Roy's favoritism toward him.
<a href="https://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?263932-Is-Visili-Podkolzin-just-about-done">Topic #</a>6 – Clearly <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/vasily-podkolzin">Vasili Podkolzin</a> has disappointed. Does he not get qualified? And even if he does, is it likely he opts to go to Europe? If he does stay with Vancouver, what should we expect?
There is no sugarcoating it – Podkolzin's time here has not gone well. His games played and ice time has dropped every season, when if anything it should be expected to be rising. And his AHL stats during the past two seasons are not great either, so he isn't forcing the hand of the Canucks.  Still, I can't imagine he isn't qualified, given the number of Canuck forward UFAs.
When things like this occur, there is always chatter about the player packing up and heading back to Russia, rather than re-upping as an RFA. Yet for all the times that was feared, it rarely has occurred, or at least not for someone still as young as Podkolzin.
Look no further than <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/filip-zadina">Filip Zadina</a>, who is still making a go of it in the NHL despite his lack of success and likewise being an early draft pick. The same holds true for <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/jesse-puljujarvi">Jesse Puljujarvi</a> and <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/denis-gurianov">Denis Gurianov</a>, both of whom were early picks who chose to play in the AHL in 2023-24 even after far more NHL games played than Podkolzin. Yes, there was <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/vitali-kravtsov">Vitali Kravtsov</a> who did opt to return to Russia, but he had bounced between Russia and the NHL before deciding to choose Russia. The threat of Podkolzin leaving the NHL is likely less realistic than it might seem.
If he does stay though, what happens next? As noted, Vancouver has several (four to be exact) UFA forwards, each of whom is a mainstay in the line-up. That seemingly provides an opening for Podkolzin to play on the team for an entire season. The issue is most of those who are leaving are in the bottom six, and that is not a situation where Podkolzin is likely to thrive. Still, Vancouver is deep enough that they could ice three scoring lines, meaning that if Podkolzin is not in the top six he still could have a chance to play with talented linemates.
I think the Canucks will give Podkolzin another season or even two of real chances to make an impact before they cut the cord. Will it work? Tough to say. It didn't with those I mentioned above, yet in some cases, like <a href="https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/pavel-zacha">Pavel Zacha</a>, it took time but worked out. If you're in a true dynasty, I'd keep Podkolzin and hope.
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TRIVIA ANSWER – THE PLAYER IS…………..Travis Green!
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Questions for Mailbag column needed
The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing <a href="mailto:admin@dobbersports.com">admin@dobbersports.com</a> with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.
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