FEED Validator

for Atom and RSS and KML

Congratulations!

This is a valid Atom 1.0 feed.

Recommendations

This feed is valid, but interoperability with the widest range of feed readers could be improved by implementing the following recommendations.

line 35, column 0: content should not contain data-caption attribute (16 occurrences) [help]
```
<img alt="" data-caption="The new guy (who isn’t so new anymore) | photo by  ...
```
line 35, column 0: content should not contain data-portal-copyright attribute (16 occurrences) [help]
```
<img alt="" data-caption="The new guy (who isn’t so new anymore) | photo by  ...
```
line 35, column 0: content should not contain data-has-syndication-rights attribute (16 occurrences) [help]
```
<img alt="" data-caption="The new guy (who isn’t so new anymore) | photo by  ...
```

line 419, column 0: content should not contain iframe tag [help]

<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="Happy Halloween You Nutty Kids" sr ...

Source: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/rss/index.xml

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><feed
xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0"
xml:lang="en-US"
>
<title type="text">Viva El Birdos</title>
<subtitle type="text">Your best source for quality St. Louis Cardinals news, rumors, analysis, stats and scores from the fan perspective.</subtitle>
<updated>2025-11-01T15:31:40+00:00</updated>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/rss/index.xml</id>
<link rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/rss/index.xml" />
<entry>
<author>
<name>ORSTLcardsfan</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[The St. Louis Cardinals face challenges with their 40-man Roster, v2]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/65404/the-st-louis-cardinals-face-challenges-with-their-40-man-roster-v2" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/65404/the-st-louis-cardinals-face-challenges-with-their-40-man-roster</id>
<updated>2025-11-01T11:31:40-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-11-01T11:22:19-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="VEB Daily" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The 2025 season is done. It is time to start looking ahead. Hope replaces disappointment. The off-season has not really started yet, although the talking about the off-season is well underway. Lots of people have lots of ideas about how to improve this roster. Of course, the only people who really count in this are […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="The new guy (who isn’t so new anymore) | photo by ORSTLcardsfan" data-portal-copyright="photo by ORSTLcardsfan" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/gettyimages-2204518131.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
The new guy (who isn’t so new anymore) | photo by ORSTLcardsfan </figcaption>
</figure>
The 2025 season is done. It is time to start looking ahead. Hope replaces disappointment. The off-season has not really started yet, although the talking about the off-season is well underway. Lots of people have lots of ideas about how to improve this roster. Of course, the only people who really count in this are Cardinals management, led by new POBO Chaim Bloom. But while we wait for them to act, we can play armchair GM a bit. Not that anyone at VEB would care to do that…
Today, we are going to play a game I call “40-man Roster Roulette”.  
One of the first orders of business in the off-season is to prune and reset the 40-man roster. This will happen in the next week or ten days. In this game, I’ll present the roster and its complexities and try to end up with a balanced 40-man roster.  The link to the 2025 season ending roster is <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17EoQbe6fgPRiyCQzOUAOv99Z0dnjlSdwX8sl1QpAaug/edit?usp=drive_link">here</a>. It is built in Google Sheets. Feel free to open and copy it and play along, changing it any way you like. It’s not as easy as it looks.
There are a couple of rules … not too many, so as not to restrict ideas.
<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>You have to follow MLB rules.  Example:  You must decide what to do with Z. Thompson when the 60-day IL disappears after the World Series.</li>
<li>You can’t go over 40 players any time during the off-season.  Plus, you must end up with at least 22 (and preferably 23) pitchers and a matching set of position players.  Keep the roster at 40, even if you have to use generic designations (like SP#1).  It’s like a card game where you always have 40 cards (pun intended).  Add one, discard one.   </li>
<li>Anyone you remove from the 40-man is assumed to be lost.  No creative solutions like DFA Prieto now and re-sign him after Spring Training starts and 40-man spots open as injured pitchers find their way back to the 60-day IL. </li>
<li>You must retain roster balance (22-24 pitchers, 16-18 players).</li>
<li>You are not allowed to place players in the IL-60 until after the start of Spring Training (Robberse, Hjerpe, Roby). </li>
<li>You are allowed to define external acquisitions generically by position… SP#1, OF#1, RP#1, so you don’t have to propose actual trades or FA signings. </li>
</ol>
Below, I present one scenario. A lot of the choices I made were more for the fun of having the hot-stove discussion, but I am trying to guess a bit how the new regime will make decisions.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">First things first</h2>
I started with the 2025 closing roster.  Shown below.  The Cardinals started 2025 with a ~$142m payroll.  They’ve whittled that down to ~$117m by season’s end. I have no idea what the 2026 payroll budget will be. Sounds like Bloom doesn’t either. 
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-09-29-124211.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="The 2025 Season Ending Roster" data-portal-copyright="" />
The gimme’s came first.  I took Mikolas off and rolled Thompson into his spot as the IL-60 list disappears.  This was a paperwork move in the end, because there are some traps already. So much for a gimme.  
Thompson is unable to throw.  Word is his lat tear reported in spring was masking a labrum tear.  Not sure how good that word is, but it seems consistent with the outcomes we’ve seen.  He is 28 years old and he is accumulating MLB service time (and pay) to not pitch.  I can’t feature him being protected and another younger (and healthier) pitcher being let go.  So, he is the first to come off in my exercise. 
I also remove Alcala.  He is arb eligible, and I can’t see the Cardinals going there with a pitcher of his performance level.  Thompson and Alcala will be the spots I leave to fill with cheap Free Agents (SP#6, RP#1) during the off-season. They could leave both on for now, but you can see where that would likely be temporary.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Protecting from Rule V Draft…</h2>
The Rule V roster must be submitted by Nov. 14. I looked through the list of position players and pitchers that need protection from that draft.  Bernal, Baez, Mendoza and Torres seem to top the list on the player side.  Hansen, Mautz, Hjerpe, Santos and Rincon top the list on the pitcher side.  You might see another player or two (Rajcic anyone?). If you play along, feel free to add them.
I figure they will add Bernal and remove Pozo.  I figured they would add Baez and remove Prieto, although I am less sure about Prieto.  Koperniak and/or Siani might be candidates as well, depending on whether they want the extra infielder or the extra outfielder for depth.  I decided they’d be more comfortable with their infield depth without Prieto. After some back-and-forth, I decided to replace Siani with Torres.  Torres can play an infield position, be emergency catcher and he can hit, so he is not as redundant as Siani is with Church and Scott. All told, I figure out of Siani, Koperniak and Torres, 1 stays and 2 go.  Hard to say which one.   At the next stage, we find out that all this handwringing is moot, anyway. This isn’t an easy game!  And I haven’t even gotten to the hard part yet.
Moving on to the pitchers, I figure they will not protect Santos or Rincon, both injured.  In Rincon’s case, I imagine they will gamble he’ll not get picked in the Rule V draft as he has barely pitched at AA.  Instead, they can put him on the AAA reserve list and that would force a drafting team to carry him on their MLB roster for an entire year to make drafting him less palatable. Maybe Santos, too.
I expect them to add Hansen and Mautz, both lefties and drop Munoz and Koperniak, rebalancing the roster with another pitcher (getting back to 22) and one less position player (down to 18). This is not where they will want to end up. Note two lefties come on, making the Thompson drop more palatable. Last, I figured they will protect Love and let Veneziano go.  Love has draft pick pedigree and had a good year. 
One injured pitcher I could not figure is Hjerpe. They like his skill set, but I don’t see how they can carry a third injured pitcher on the 40-man (along with Roby, Robberse).  It is possible they could let Robberse go and add Hjerpe.  This decision will rest on medicals, which I have no access to.  This is a head scratcher to me.  They could also add Hjerpe and drop Raquet, but they are going to need arms for the MLB roster and all these injured guys reduces their flexibility to do that.  To me, to keep Hjerpe, they have to drop a position player and keep 23 pitchers on the roster. Which position player would go? Now things get tough. Probably ends up being a Hjerpe vs. Torres, 22 pitchers vs. 23 pitchers choice. I figure they keep Hjerpe and look to add a journeyman utility guy (shown as OF#5) as depth in spring, after they move Hjerpe to the IL.
I did not know what to do with Blaze Jordan, recently acquired for Steven Matz. A 40 FV player struggling (a bit) at AAA who is Rule V eligible is a candidate to be left off. He is on the younger side (22), though and SSS alert on those AAA numbers. The FO saw enough in him to take him in trade, so there is something there I can’t measure. Looking at the position players in the list below, who would you jettison to keep Jordan? So, I left him off. Being on the AAA roster means a team would have to keep him in the majors all year if they wanted to draft (and keep) him. A gamble, but a safe one.
That gets me to a roster going into the Rule V draft.  The roster is full at 40 players, 22 pitchers and 18 position players.  Note I have 2 spots available for the Rule V draft. The Cardinals project to pick 11th.  There tends to not be a lot of value that late in the draft and the Cardinals would likely lose more value than gain, so I think they will pass this year.  Look for them to remain active in the minor league portion.  That is how they got Ugueto this past year. Given the pitcher injuries, I suspect the Cardinals would prefer a 23-17 roster mix, but I’m not sure how they get there. Note that I updated expected 2026 Arb salaries in this version, taken from MLBTradeRumors.com.
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-07-105227.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trades and Free Agents…</h2>
So far, all of the roster shuffling has been done with the future in mind. Now there is a roster one can look at and evaluate where it needs to be better in the near-term. Of course, the Cardinals need better outfielders. They also need more starting pitching quality and depth. I did ponder the question of … if they can only improve one this year (pitching or outfield), where do they go?
One way I look at this roster at it stands after my subtraction and addition of prospects is … which spots on the roster remain occupied by players who aren’t likely to contribute significant value to either the near term or in the future? In a rebuilding world, it seems like this would be where a team would go to add value, more than looking at the 26-man roster and asking which specific position they can improve to compete next year (itself a fair question, but probably not the focus).
On the player side, I would put Arenado and Fermin in this group. I mean no disrespect, but the harsh reality is that the Cardinals can reasonably expect to get 1-2 WAR from any number of third baseman on their roster next year and Arenado is 35. That meets my definition of unable to meaningfully contribute. Great player. Love him. It’s time.
Fermin’s top side is really as a role player. Teams need these guys, but that is a spot where the team could improve without compromising a future prospect. I do not put Contreras in this group. He will be quite useful in the near-term, and I don’t think the Cardinals can (or should) ignore that.
On the pitching side, I would put King, Raquet and Roycroft in this same category. Again, no disrespect. These are role players, with no near-term upside and no long-term prospects. Raquet is a great story and has done well to get where he is at. Roycroft has had a number of shots. King is more in that category of declining value because of rising salary due to arbitration.
So, overall, I see five spots that could be improved upon this off-season, without compromising future value, given the right trade outcomes or Free Agents that could improve the roster. For a rebuilding team, this is where they want to replace these five guys with bona fide prospects. Not 40 FV guys of whom one might turn into a notable player. This will be the hard part, because getting those prospects may involve some combination of major league talent or money, two things the Cardinals do not appear to have enough of.
Here are some winter meetings possibilities:
<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Going into the GM meetings, they won’t know if they will be able to trade Gray or Arenado or Contreras, or in what combination or at what cost. These things tend to be protracted.  What they do know they need at least one other starter to add to the stable, even if Gray stays.  I figure they will add a Free Agent SP in the $5m-$7m range, using the spot I reserved as SP#6.</li>
<li>If they trade Arenado, they free up one position player roster spot and money.  This is the prime opportunity to re-allocate this spot to an outfielder with some of the $$ saved.  Here is one way to think about such a deal…the Cardinals agree to cover the $6m deferred amount for 2026 (payable in 2041) and also cover $15m of Arenado’s 2026 salary.  Leaving the acquiring team with a 2 yr/$21m contract ($10.5m AAV).  The Cardinals save $7m in 2026 and $15m in 2027. It keeps the roster balanced and frees up playing time in the infield for Wetherholt. This is the way I played it out, but I did consider the idea that if Arenado is the only one moved, they might re-allocate that spot and the $$ to starting pitching. Choices, choices.</li>
<li>They might be able to get a legit prospect for Gray, or at least free up the roster spot and acquire yet another FA pitcher with the $$ saved from Gray’s contract.   A way to think about that … The Cardinals cover $15m of Gray’s 2026 salary and $5m of 2027 (essentially, covering the option buyout). The acquiring team gets Gray at a $20m/1 yr contract plus a $30m option.  The Cardinals save $20m in 2026. It’d be really helpful if a returning prospect did not need 40-man protection.  If the $20m saved is enough to buy 2 or 3 pitchers/players, then we have to identify more guys to cut from the 40-man roster to make room.  Who?  On the pitcher side, you could let go of Roycroft, Raquet and/or Fernandez.  Having done that, there is not much of a Memphis shuttle next year for the bullpen.  That could be a problem to consider. Maybe not a showstopper.  If you DFA Raquet, you likely cement King or some journeyman back on the roster as the 2nd lefty in the bullpen.  Which do you want there? </li>
<li>If they can trade Contreras, that will free up a roster spot (and first base for Burleson). I suspect they won’t have to put much cash into such a deal, so they could pocket the savings ($18m in 2026 and $18.5m in 2027) and redirect these funds towards other needs. Another outfielder and another pitcher would be at the top of the list of talent return. Teams will want the $5m option buyout covered here, too. If they put some $$ in and trade Contreras to a pitching-rich team, maybe they can get a legit pitching prospect back. I know. TINSTAAPP.</li>
<li>They could consider trading Donovan.  His salary isn’t onerous enough to value the cash savings, but the prospect haul of a Donovan trade might entice them.  If Donovan goes (perhaps as part of a package), it should be for two prospects – one near MLB ready to replace him on the roster (preferably an outfielder or a pitcher) and another prospect farther away that does not need 40-man protection.  Two-for-one would be the target. If they can’t get that, keep him.   </li>
<li>They could consider trading Nootbaar, with many of the same characteristics as Donovan. The surgery he had probably precludes this avenue for now. </li>
<li>If they can’t trade Arenado, they could consider trading Gorman.  The spot that opens would be where Wetherholt lands, which probably saves Fermin (see below). Maybe they can flip Gorman for a prospect further away.</li>
</ol>
I ended up assuming they’d trade Arenado, but not Gray, Donovan or Nootbaar.  On Gray, I decided that paying down Gray’s contract and using $20m to buy another pitcher gets them to the same place in terms of both performance and payroll, so why bother? Unless they can get a legit prospect back from the acquiring team, which I doubt.  On Donovan (or Nootbaar), I don’t see them getting a prospect haul that incents them to deal them. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Spring Training Moves…</h2>
The last step is to finalize the roster as it will look at the end of spring.  At this point, we are working with the roster as it stands, so we can’t measure the impact of any trades, either who goes or who comes in. 
Here you have to make assumptions about which non-40-man players might make the team (Henderson, Wetherholt, Doyle, and Mathews probably round out the list of possibilities, along with the usual non-roster invitees).  If any of these make it, you have to remove a player one-for-one.  The first three are easy, as they can then move Roby, Hjerpe, Robberse to the IL-60, which re-materializes in spring.  One has to remember that while IL-60 frees up a roster spot, using it is not without consequences. These players get paid MLB minimum AND they accumulate service time while rehabbing. I suspect the Cardinals would prefer NOT to start their service time clock. Such is the complexity of roster roulette.
Below is what an Opening Day Roster might look like, with no non-roster invitees added. I assume they trade only Arenado and sign an SP and a reliever. Again, I can’t foresee trades, so this is really limited to what may happen with existing players.
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/11/Screenshot-2025-10-18-091523.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
For fun, you could assume Wetherholt and Mathews break camp with the team, unless the Cardinals acquire more major league pitching than I expect. It’s hard to predict, but in looking at the above picture, I see Mathews as the #7 starter (ie. starts at Memphis), ergo a guy who will get some starts at the MLB level in 2026, likely following a similar path as McGreevy (double headers, spot starts). My guess is Wetherholt makes the team coming out of spring, but not if Gorman AND Arenado are still here (which I view as unlikely). Wetherholt gets their vacated spot, when that day comes.
In ways, the decision on Wetherholt may become one of opportunity. They really have multiple options with JJ. Put him at second and move Donovan. Put him at short and move Winn. Put him at third and move Gorman and Arenado, or put him at second, move Donovan to third and move Arenado/Gorman. Winn would bring back the most but push the roster deeper on the LH hitting side. The offers they get may determine this outcome. Or they can delay the choice and not add him to the roster until Opening Day. That works from a 40-man standpoint, but moving Arenado, Donovan, Gorman or Winn is more an off-season thing, not an end of camp thing.
For those that want to advocate for Doyle or Henderson making it, you’ll have to pick someone else to remove from the roster to accommodate that.  I don’t see this happening, but the Cardinals are very thin on the pitching front.
Likewise, for those that want to advocate for signing a cheap veteran pitcher (ala. Maton) in spring, I have left one 40-man spot to allow for this (RP#1).  Same with any non-roster invitee, if they don’t find an FA. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Some payroll considerations</h2>
This isn’t a payroll analysis, so I won’t go too deep here, but there are some implications that I want to draw out.
With my machinations and final roster, I left Contreras and Gray on the roster. If neither go, the Cardinals would still project to come in with a 2026 starting payroll of ~$132m, down from 2025 starting payroll of $142m. This assumes an FA outfielder and the buy-down on Arenado’s contract come out to about what Arenado would cost in payroll if he stays. 
If the Big 3 all go, then payroll just goes down from there and unnamed players take their spots. Using my projections, the Cardinals could reduce payroll commitments by up to $50m more in 2026 (if Arenado, Gray and Contreras are all traded), plus up to $58m in 2027. That creates flexibility to add legit free agents. It also means there is a deeper hole in the short-term to fill in.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Some knock-off impacts</h2>
The 40-man roster directly impacts the 26-man roster. Particularly on the pitching side. In most years, most teams will promote every, or almost every 40-man pitcher they have. The typical allocation of pitchers on a 40-man is 23, and 13 get carried on the 26-man at any one time. The other 10 guys find their way to St. Louis due to injury, under-performance, unscheduled double-headers, and the need to rotate in fresh bullpen arms. Often, the number of guys in this cycle exceeds even ten. It did in 2025, and injuries weren’t an issue (unusually).
If you peer at the pitcher list closely, you will see but six healthy pitchers right now not expected to break camp with the team. That is not enough. On top of that, three of those six have never pitched above AA. Alacor likes to say he is good with trial by fire (which is how folks in his profession really train), but I’m not so sure Cardinals management will be good with that. Let’s take a quick gander at the most recent set of prospects to advance to MLB with zero or near-zero AAA experience. Hicks (2018)…Carlson (2020)…Pallante (2022)…Walker (2023)…Scott (2024). Notice a trend here?
I’m thinking the near-MLB pitching depth needs to be better on this 40-man to allow the young kids to survive. This is where Victor Santos and Zach Thompson might make a case for getting (or keeping a spot) or even, dare I say, Miles Mikolas.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Conclusion</h2>
This exercise is nothing extra-ordinary for a draft-and-develop team. The better they are at draft-and-develop, the harder this exercise is. That is called success. They push people up-and-out every year, trying to maximize the talent on the roster within the constrained budget. Older prospects get pushed out when younger prospects show greater performance potential (at lower cost). The Cardinals have maintained a surprisingly static 40-man roster the last few years and I expect that era has ended.
Remember, I did this for discussion purposes. Critique.  Comment.  Discuss.  That’s what the hot stove is for, right?  In my mind, more changes than what I’ve outlined would be more aggressive than I expect (but not opposed to), and less changes would be too passive (and unexpected).
If you want to play along, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17EoQbe6fgPRiyCQzOUAOv99Z0dnjlSdwX8sl1QpAaug/edit?usp=sharing">Here</a> is that link to the 2025 man closing roster. Play with it yourself. It’s not an easy process, is it? What does your roster look like? I look forward to the back-and-forth discussion.

]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>ORSTLcardsfan</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[The St. Louis Cardinals face challenges with their 40-man Roster]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/64811/the-st-louis-cardinals-face-challenges-with-their-40-man-roster" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=64811</id>
<updated>2025-11-01T11:27:49-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-11-01T09:05:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="VEB Daily" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The 2025 season is done. It is time to start looking ahead. Hope replaces disappointment. The off-season has not really started yet, although the talking about the off-season is well underway. Lots of people have lots of ideas about how to improve this roster. Of course, the only people who really count in this are […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="The new guy (who isn’t so new anymore) | photo by ORSTLcardsfan" data-portal-copyright="photo by ORSTLcardsfan" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/gettyimages-2204518131.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
The new guy (who isn’t so new anymore) | photo by ORSTLcardsfan </figcaption>
</figure>
The 2025 season is done. It is time to start looking ahead. Hope replaces disappointment. The off-season has not really started yet, although the talking about the off-season is well underway. Lots of people have lots of ideas about how to improve this roster. Of course, the only people who really count in this are Cardinals management, led by new POBO Chaim Bloom. But while we wait for them to act, we can play armchair GM a bit. Not that anyone at VEB would care to do that…
Today, we are going to play a game I call “40-man Roster Roulette”.  
One of the first orders of business in the off-season is to prune and reset the 40-man roster. This will happen in the next week or ten days. In this game, I’ll present the roster and its complexities and try to end up with a balanced 40-man roster.  The link to the 2025 season ending roster is <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17EoQbe6fgPRiyCQzOUAOv99Z0dnjlSdwX8sl1QpAaug/edit?usp=drive_link">here</a>. It is built in Google Sheets. Feel free to open and copy it and play along, changing it any way you like. It’s not as easy as it looks.
There are a couple of rules … not too many, so as not to restrict ideas.
<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>You have to follow MLB rules.  Example:  You must decide what to do with Z. Thompson when the 60-day IL disappears after the World Series.</li>
<li>You can’t go over 40 players any time during the off-season.  Plus, you must end up with at least 22 (and preferably 23) pitchers and a matching set of position players.  Keep the roster at 40, even if you have to use generic designations (like SP#1).  It’s like a card game where you always have 40 cards (pun intended).  Add one, discard one.   </li>
<li>Anyone you remove from the 40-man is assumed to be lost.  No creative solutions like DFA Prieto now and re-sign him after Spring Training starts and 40-man spots open as injured pitchers find their way back to the 60-day IL. </li>
<li>You must retain roster balance (22-24 pitchers, 16-18 players).</li>
<li>You are not allowed to place players in the IL-60 until after the start of Spring Training (Robberse, Hjerpe, Roby). </li>
<li>You are allowed to define external acquisitions generically by position… SP#1, OF#1, RP#1, so you don’t have to propose actual trades or FA signings. </li>
</ol>
Below, I present one scenario. A lot of the choices I made were more for the fun of having the hot-stove discussion, but I am trying to guess a bit how the new regime will make decisions.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">First things first</h2>
I started with the 2025 closing roster.  Shown below.  The Cardinals started 2025 with a ~$142m payroll.  They’ve whittled that down to ~$117m by season’s end. I have no idea what the 2026 payroll budget will be. Sounds like Bloom doesn’t either. 
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-09-29-124211.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="The 2025 Season Ending Roster" data-portal-copyright="" />
The gimme’s came first.  I took Mikolas off and rolled Thompson into his spot as the IL-60 list disappears.  This was a paperwork move in the end, because there are some traps already. So much for a gimme.  
Thompson is unable to throw.  Word is his lat tear reported in spring was masking a labrum tear.  Not sure how good that word is, but it seems consistent with the outcomes we’ve seen.  He is 28 years old and he is accumulating MLB service time (and pay) to not pitch.  I can’t feature him being protected and another younger (and healthier) pitcher being let go.  So, he is the first to come off in my exercise. 
I also remove Alcala.  He is arb eligible, and I can’t see the Cardinals going there with a pitcher of his performance level.  Thompson and Alcala will be the spots I leave to fill with cheap Free Agents (SP#6, RP#1) during the off-season. They could leave both on for now, but you can see where that would likely be temporary.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Protecting from Rule V Draft…</h2>
The Rule V roster must be submitted by Nov. 14. I looked through the list of position players and pitchers that need protection from that draft.  Bernal, Baez, Mendoza and Torres seem to top the list on the player side.  Hansen, Mautz, Hjerpe, Santos and Rincon top the list on the pitcher side.  You might see another player or two (Rajcic anyone?). If you play along, feel free to add them.
I figure they will add Bernal and remove Pozo.  I figured they would add Baez and remove Prieto, although I am less sure about Prieto.  Koperniak and/or Siani might be candidates as well, depending on whether they want the extra infielder or the extra outfielder for depth.  I decided they’d be more comfortable with their infield depth without Prieto. After some back-and-forth, I decided to replace Siani with Torres.  Torres can play an infield position, be emergency catcher and he can hit, so he is not as redundant as Siani is with Church and Scott. All told, I figure out of Siani, Koperniak and Torres, 1 stays and 2 go.  Hard to say which one.   At the next stage, we find out that all this handwringing is moot, anyway. This isn’t an easy game!  And I haven’t even gotten to the hard part yet.
Moving on to the pitchers, I figure they will not protect Santos or Rincon, both injured.  In Rincon’s case, I imagine they will gamble he’ll not get picked in the Rule V draft as he has barely pitched at AA.  Instead, they can put him on the AAA reserve list and that would force a drafting team to carry him on their MLB roster for an entire year to make drafting him less palatable. Maybe Santos, too.
I expect them to add Hansen and Mautz, both lefties and drop Munoz and Koperniak, rebalancing the roster with another pitcher (getting back to 22) and one less position player (down to 18). This is not where they will want to end up. Note two lefties come on, making the Thompson drop more palatable. Last, I figured they will protect Love and let Veneziano go.  Love has draft pick pedigree and had a good year. 
One injured pitcher I could not figure is Hjerpe. They like his skill set, but I don’t see how they can carry a third injured pitcher on the 40-man (along with Roby, Robberse).  It is possible they could let Robberse go and add Hjerpe.  This decision will rest on medicals, which I have no access to.  This is a head scratcher to me.  They could also add Hjerpe and drop Raquet, but they are going to need arms for the MLB roster and all these injured guys reduces their flexibility to do that.  To me, to keep Hjerpe, they have to drop a position player and keep 23 pitchers on the roster. Which position player would go? Now things get tough. Probably ends up being a Hjerpe vs. Torres, 22 pitchers vs. 23 pitchers choice. I figure they keep Hjerpe and look to add a journeyman utility guy (shown as OF#5) as depth in spring, after they move Hjerpe to the IL.
I did not know what to do with Blaze Jordan, recently acquired for Steven Matz. A 40 FV player struggling (a bit) at AAA who is Rule V eligible is a candidate to be left off. He is on the younger side (22), though and SSS alert on those AAA numbers. The FO saw enough in him to take him in trade, so there is something there I can’t measure. Looking at the position players in the list below, who would you jettison to keep Jordan? So, I left him off. Being on the AAA roster means a team would have to keep him in the majors all year if they wanted to draft (and keep) him. A gamble, but a safe one.
That gets me to a roster going into the Rule V draft.  The roster is full at 40 players, 22 pitchers and 18 position players.  Note I have 2 spots available for the Rule V draft. The Cardinals project to pick 11th.  There tends to not be a lot of value that late in the draft and the Cardinals would likely lose more value than gain, so I think they will pass this year.  Look for them to remain active in the minor league portion.  That is how they got Ugueto this past year. Given the pitcher injuries, I suspect the Cardinals would prefer a 23-17 roster mix, but I’m not sure how they get there. Note that I updated expected 2026 Arb salaries in this version, taken from MLBTradeRumors.com.
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/Screenshot-2025-10-07-105227.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trades and Free Agents…</h2>
So far, all of the roster shuffling has been done with the future in mind. Now there is a roster one can look at and evaluate where it needs to be better in the near-term. Of course, the Cardinals need better outfielders. They also need more starting pitching quality and depth. I did ponder the question of … if they can only improve one this year (pitching or outfield), where do they go?
One way I look at this roster at it stands after my subtraction and addition of prospects is … which spots on the roster remain occupied by players who aren’t likely to contribute significant value to either the near term or in the future? In a rebuilding world, it seems like this would be where a team would go to add value, more than looking at the 26-man roster and asking which specific position they can improve to compete next year (itself a fair question, but probably not the focus).
On the player side, I would put Arenado and Fermin in this group. I mean no disrespect, but the harsh reality is that the Cardinals can reasonably expect to get 1-2 WAR from any number of third baseman on their roster next year and Arenado is 35. That meets my definition of unable to meaningfully contribute. Great player. Love him. It’s time.
Fermin’s top side is really as a role player. Teams need these guys, but that is a spot where the team could improve without compromising a future prospect. I do not put Contreras in this group. He will be quite useful in the near-term, and I don’t think the Cardinals can (or should) ignore that.
On the pitching side, I would put King, Raquet and Roycroft in this same category. Again, no disrespect. These are role players, with no near-term upside and no long-term prospects. Raquet is a great story and has done well to get where he is at. Roycroft has had a number of shots. King is more in that category of declining value because of rising salary due to arbitration.
So, overall, I see five spots that could be improved upon this off-season, without compromising future value, given the right trade outcomes or Free Agents that could improve the roster. For a rebuilding team, this is where they want to replace these five guys with bona fide prospects. Not 40 FV guys of whom one might turn into a notable player. This will be the hard part, because getting those prospects may involve some combination of major league talent or money, two things the Cardinals do not appear to have enough of.
Here are some winter meetings possibilities:
<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Going into the GM meetings, they won’t know if they will be able to trade Gray or Arenado or Contreras, or in what combination or at what cost. These things tend to be protracted.  What they do know they need at least one other starter to add to the stable, even if Gray stays.  I figure they will add a Free Agent SP in the $5m-$7m range, using the spot I reserved as SP#6.</li>
<li>If they trade Arenado, they free up one position player roster spot and money.  This is the prime opportunity to re-allocate this spot to an outfielder with some of the $$ saved.  Here is one way to think about such a deal…the Cardinals agree to cover the $6m deferred amount for 2026 (payable in 2041) and also cover $15m of Arenado’s 2026 salary.  Leaving the acquiring team with a 2 yr/$21m contract ($10.5m AAV).  The Cardinals save $7m in 2026 and $15m in 2027. It keeps the roster balanced and frees up playing time in the infield for Wetherholt. This is the way I played it out, but I did consider the idea that if Arenado is the only one moved, they might re-allocate that spot and the $$ to starting pitching. Choices, choices.</li>
<li>They might be able to get a legit prospect for Gray, or at least free up the roster spot and acquire yet another FA pitcher with the $$ saved from Gray’s contract.   A way to think about that … The Cardinals cover $15m of Gray’s 2026 salary and $5m of 2027 (essentially, covering the option buyout). The acquiring team gets Gray at a $20m/1 yr contract plus a $30m option.  The Cardinals save $20m in 2026. It’d be really helpful if a returning prospect did not need 40-man protection.  If the $20m saved is enough to buy 2 or 3 pitchers/players, then we have to identify more guys to cut from the 40-man roster to make room.  Who?  On the pitcher side, you could let go of Roycroft, Raquet and/or Fernandez.  Having done that, there is not much of a Memphis shuttle next year for the bullpen.  That could be a problem to consider. Maybe not a showstopper.  If you DFA Raquet, you likely cement King or some journeyman back on the roster as the 2nd lefty in the bullpen.  Which do you want there? </li>
<li>If they can trade Contreras, that will free up a roster spot (and first base for Burleson). I suspect they won’t have to put much cash into such a deal, so they could pocket the savings ($18m in 2026 and $18.5m in 2027) and redirect these funds towards other needs. Another outfielder and another pitcher would be at the top of the list of talent return. Teams will want the $5m option buyout covered here, too. If they put some $$ in and trade Contreras to a pitching-rich team, maybe they can get a legit pitching prospect back. I know. TINSTAAPP.</li>
<li>They could consider trading Donovan.  His salary isn’t onerous enough to value the cash savings, but the prospect haul of a Donovan trade might entice them.  If Donovan goes (perhaps as part of a package), it should be for two prospects – one near MLB ready to replace him on the roster (preferably an outfielder or a pitcher) and another prospect farther away that does not need 40-man protection.  Two-for-one would be the target. If they can’t get that, keep him.   </li>
<li>They could consider trading Nootbaar, with many of the same characteristics as Donovan. The surgery he had probably precludes this avenue for now. </li>
<li>If they can’t trade Arenado, they could consider trading Gorman.  The spot that opens would be where Wetherholt lands, which probably saves Fermin (see below). Maybe they can flip Gorman for a prospect further away.</li>
</ol>
I ended up assuming they’d trade Arenado, but not Gray, Donovan or Nootbaar.  On Gray, I decided that paying down Gray’s contract and using $20m to buy another pitcher gets them to the same place in terms of both performance and payroll, so why bother? Unless they can get a legit prospect back from the acquiring team, which I doubt.  On Donovan (or Nootbaar), I don’t see them getting a prospect haul that incents them to deal them. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Spring Training Moves…</h2>
The last step is to finalize the roster as it will look at the end of spring.  At this point, we are working with the roster as it stands, so we can’t measure the impact of any trades, either who goes or who comes in. 
Here you have to make assumptions about which non-40-man players might make the team (Henderson, Wetherholt, Doyle, and Mathews probably round out the list of possibilities, along with the usual non-roster invitees).  If any of these make it, you have to remove a player one-for-one.  The first three are easy, as they can then move Roby, Hjerpe, Robberse to the IL-60, which re-materializes in spring.  One has to remember that while IL-60 frees up a roster spot, using it is not without consequences. These players get paid MLB minimum AND they accumulate service time while rehabbing. I suspect the Cardinals would prefer NOT to start their service time clock. Such is the complexity of roster roulette.
Below is what an Opening Day Roster might look like, with no non-roster invitees added. I assume they trade only Arenado and sign an SP and a reliever. Again, I can’t foresee trades, so this is really limited to what may happen with existing players.
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/11/Screenshot-2025-10-18-091523.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
For fun, you could assume Wetherholt and Mathews break camp with the team, unless the Cardinals acquire more major league pitching than I expect. It’s hard to predict, but in looking at the above picture, I see Mathews as the #7 starter (ie. starts at Memphis), ergo a guy who will get some starts at the MLB level in 2026, likely following a similar path as McGreevy (double headers, spot starts). My guess is Wetherholt makes the team coming out of spring, but not if Gorman AND Arenado are still here (which I view as unlikely). Wetherholt gets their vacated spot, when that day comes.
In ways, the decision on Wetherholt may become one of opportunity. They really have multiple options with JJ. Put him at second and move Donovan. Put him at short and move Winn. Put him at third and move Gorman and Arenado, or put him at second, move Donovan to third and move Arenado/Gorman. Winn would bring back the most but push the roster deeper on the LH hitting side. The offers they get may determine this outcome. Or they can delay the choice and not add him to the roster until Opening Day. That works from a 40-man standpoint, but moving Arenado, Donovan, Gorman or Winn is more an off-season thing, not an end of camp thing.
For those that want to advocate for Doyle or Henderson making it, you’ll have to pick someone else to remove from the roster to accommodate that.  I don’t see this happening, but the Cardinals are very thin on the pitching front.
Likewise, for those that want to advocate for signing a cheap veteran pitcher (ala. Maton) in spring, I have left one 40-man spot to allow for this (RP#1).  Same with any non-roster invitee, if they don’t find an FA. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Some payroll considerations</h2>
This isn’t a payroll analysis, so I won’t go too deep here, but there are some implications that I want to draw out.
With my machinations and final roster, I left Contreras and Gray on the roster. If neither go, the Cardinals would still project to come in with a 2026 starting payroll of ~$132m, down from 2025 starting payroll of $142m. This assumes an FA outfielder and the buy-down on Arenado’s contract come out to about what Arenado would cost in payroll if he stays. 
If the Big 3 all go, then payroll just goes down from there and unnamed players take their spots. Using my projections, the Cardinals could reduce payroll commitments by up to $50m more in 2026 (if Arenado, Gray and Contreras are all traded), plus up to $58m in 2027. That creates flexibility to add legit free agents. It also means there is a deeper hole in the short-term to fill in.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Some knock-off impacts</h2>
The 40-man roster directly impacts the 26-man roster. Particularly on the pitching side. In most years, most teams will promote every, or almost every 40-man pitcher they have. The typical allocation of pitchers on a 40-man is 23, and 13 get carried on the 26-man at any one time. The other 10 guys find their way to St. Louis due to injury, under-performance, unscheduled double-headers, and the need to rotate in fresh bullpen arms. Often, the number of guys in this cycle exceeds even ten. It did in 2025, and injuries weren’t an issue (unusually).
If you peer at the pitcher list closely, you will see but six healthy pitchers right now not expected to break camp with the team. That is not enough. On top of that, three of those six have never pitched above AA. Alacor likes to say he is good with trial by fire (which is how folks in his profession really train), but I’m not so sure Cardinals management will be good with that. Let’s take a quick gander at the most recent set of prospects to advance to MLB with zero or near-zero AAA experience. Hicks (2018)…Carlson (2020)…Pallante (2022)…Walker (2023)…Scott (2024). Notice a trend here?
I’m thinking the near-MLB pitching depth needs to be better on this 40-man to allow the young kids to survive. This is where Victor Santos and Zach Thompson might make a case for getting (or keeping a spot) or even, dare I say, Miles Mikolas.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Conclusion</h2>
This exercise is nothing extra-ordinary for a draft-and-develop team. The better they are at draft-and-develop, the harder this exercise is. That is called success. They push people up-and-out every year, trying to maximize the talent on the roster within the constrained budget. Older prospects get pushed out when younger prospects show greater performance potential (at lower cost). The Cardinals have maintained a surprisingly static 40-man roster the last few years and I expect that era has ended.
Remember, I did this for discussion purposes. Critique.  Comment.  Discuss.  That’s what the hot stove is for, right?  In my mind, more changes than what I’ve outlined would be more aggressive than I expect (but not opposed to), and less changes would be too passive (and unexpected).
If you want to play along, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17EoQbe6fgPRiyCQzOUAOv99Z0dnjlSdwX8sl1QpAaug/edit?usp=sharing">Here</a> is that link to the 2025 man closing roster. Play with it yourself. It’s not an easy process, is it? What does your roster look like? I look forward to the back-and-forth discussion.

]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>scooter</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays – A World Series Game 6 thread for October 31, 2025]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-game-threads/65319/los-angeles-dodgers-at-toronto-blue-jays-a-world-series-game-6-thread-for-october-31-2025" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/65319/toronto-blue-jays-at-los-angeles-dodgers-a-world-series-game-5-thread-for-october-29-2025</id>
<updated>2025-10-24T12:23:18-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-10-31T19:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Game Threads" />
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/gettyimages-2242485604.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>


]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>Zachary Junda</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[A Hunt and Peck: Happy Halloween]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-news-analysis-mlb/65387/a-hunt-and-peck-happy-halloween" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=65387</id>
<updated>2025-10-30T11:11:44-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-10-31T12:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="Hunt and Peck" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Elsewhere in MLB… The 2025 Major League Baseball season could come to an end tonight as the Toronto Blue Jays are on the precipice of a World Series. The Jays took two out of three in Los Angeles and have a 3-2 series lead over the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers, with first pitch for […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/imagn-27435736.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="Happy Halloween You Nutty Kids" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-nnYLhLl29E?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
Elsewhere in MLB…
The 2025 Major League Baseball season could come to an end tonight as the Toronto Blue Jays are on the precipice of a World Series. 
The Jays took two out of three in Los Angeles and have a 3-2 series lead over the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers, with first pitch for Game 6 scheduled for 7:00 P.M. over on FOX. 
Pitching wise, Game 2 will be a rematch between Los Angeles’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Toronto’s Kevin Gausman. Yamamoto was incredible the last time out, throwing a complete game. Yamamoto gave up one run off of four hits and retired the last 20 batters that he faced. 

]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>Curt Bishop</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[John Denton floats St. Louis native as fit for Cardinals]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-analysis-sabermetrics/65391/john-denton-floats-st-louis-native-as-fit-for-cardinals" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=65391</id>
<updated>2025-10-30T16:43:49-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-10-31T09:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="Cardinals Analysis" /><category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="Cardinals Rumors" /><category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Free Agents" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The Cardinals are about to begin what should be a very productive and busy offseason. That could start as soon as Saturday, as the Blue Jays return home ahead 3-2 in the World Series with a chance to close out the Dodgers in Friday’s Game 6. If necessary, Game 7 will be Saturday night, and […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/gettyimages-2243699191.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>
The Cardinals are about to begin what should be a very productive and busy offseason. That could start as soon as Saturday, as the Blue Jays return home ahead 3-2 in the World Series with a chance to close out the Dodgers in Friday’s Game 6.
If necessary, Game 7 will be Saturday night, and the Blue Jays will start a familiar face, one people in St. Louis and all across the baseball world know very well by now. I’m talking of course about Max Scherzer, a St. Louis native that was originally drafted by the Cardinals before committing to Mizzou.
The Cardinals have had two chances to sign him, once after the 2014 season and again after the 2021 season. Both times they passed. But as we go into the offseason, the Cardinals have a clear need for starting pitching. I personally don’t care if it’s young pitching or a veteran pitcher, but <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/cardinals-go-into-first-offseason-with-chaim-bloom">John Denton</a> had an interesting blurb the other day.
He listed several starters that the Cardinals could target. He noted that Miles Mikolas likely won’t return, but there was a particular pitcher on that list of starters that could be in their range.
“With Mikolas likely gone, [Andre] Pallante and Quinn Mathews (<a href="https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/cardinals/quinn-mathews-687273" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">No. 5</a> prospect) coming off shaky seasons and Roby injured, the Cards must pursue pitching to fill out their rotation. Some pitchers who might fit their price range: Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt, Austin Gomber or (gulp) Max Scherzer,“ Denton wrote.
Yes, Denton did link the Cardinals to the man himself. Now, we don’t know if the Cardinals actually will target Scherzer, but at this point in his career, he’s somebody that would be in the Cardinals price range. It would only be a one-year commitment, and he would get a chance to play for the team he grew up cheering for, so it could be a nice feel-good story.
A lot also depends on what Scherzer himself wants. Understand this—the Cardinals are not likely to be a contender next year. I would imagine Scherzer wants to pitch for a contender, so I would caution fans to not get their hopes too high for this potential match.
Still, it’s fun to think about and it would be a fascinating fit. Scherzer will be 42 years old next year, so they’ll want to be cognizant of that if they do target him, but I find him more of an appealing option than any of the other pitchers Denton listed, even Gallen.
I would certainly love to have Scherzer in St. Louis. It’d be a different situation for him since he’s used to being on a competitive team, not a rebuilding one. But if the Cardinals are going to trade Sonny Gray, they need to fill out the rotation with at least somebody from free agency. I say, why not take a chance on the local product, if he wants to be here?
That will ultimately be the deciding factor, but I think Cardinals fans would love to have him on board.
]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>Gabe Simonds</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[The championship honeymoon]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/65377/the-championship-honeymoon" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=65377</id>
<updated>2025-10-30T05:21:39-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-10-30T08:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="VEB Daily" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[When I was listening to the radio yesterday, something that has long fascinated me came to my attention. You see, they were not talking about the Cardinals, they were talking about the Blues. The Blues had recently called up a prospect, a former top 10 pick who recently turned 20. They called up Dalibor Dovorsky. […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/gettyimages-2206379322.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>
When I was listening to the radio yesterday, something that has long fascinated me came to my attention. You see, they were not talking about the Cardinals, they were talking about the Blues. The Blues had recently called up a prospect, a former top 10 pick who recently turned 20. They called up Dalibor Dovorsky. This by all accounts should not have interested me.
You see, I’m a fairweather Blues fan. I am invested in the Blues winning, but I have learned despite my best efforts, a regular season hockey game bores me. I’m on a baseball blog so I’m sure there are people who agree with me, but it is hard to believe a hockey game could be more boring than a baseball game to most people I know. Nonetheless, I have tried and I have tried, and I just can’t get into it. For the playoffs, I am locked in. I don’t know if you can get more fairweather than that.
Because of this, I don’t know the sport that well. I have picked up on things, but I would never in my life write about hockey as if I knew anything. So anything I say regarding the Blues is based on my impression of them, not actual knowledge of the team. For diehard hockey fans who know the sport well, I may reveal my ignorance. I feel the need to put out that disclaimer in case anyone mistakes me for someone who is knowledgable about hockey.
To get back to the first paragraph, the reason this call-up interested me was because of how Brandon Kiley and Alex Ferrario responded to the call-up. Apparently president and GM Doug Armstrong does not rush prospects, and this is a very out of character move. Kiley in particular worried that this signals that the Blues don’t know what else to do, that calling up a prospect earlier than they normally would is a worrying sign. The Blues, if you didn’t know, have lost five straight and are 3-6-1 to start their season.
The reason this is interesting to me as a Cardinals fan is because from my standpoint, the Blues and Cardinals have occupied extremely similar spots in their respective leagues for a while. They had good, not great teams that failed to advance in the playoffs followed by missing the playoffs two years in a row. The Blues did make the playoffs last year, because of an absurd run that actually reminds me a lot of the 2021 Cardinals team. If this current team, off to an awful start, doesn’t turn the season around, it’s sure going to feel like that 12-game winning streak was fluky and the team overall is still mediocre who can’t quite get better than that.
And perhaps most importantly, the Blues are very much in the business of trying to still be a playoff team while rebuilding. They seem to have the exact same philosophy as the Cardinals, where they think they can get back to where they were without being a losing team in the present. Or at least, that’s the goal. From radio interviews, some comments here actually, and some osmosis, this is my impression of the Blues rightly or wrongly.
And yet…. the fan response has been radically differently. I am cut from the same cloth regarding fandom as my dad, and he listens to the radio more than me, and he complains how the Blues always get the benefit of the doubt and the Cardinals never do. And it’s a pretty simple explanation honestly: the Blues won, the Cardinals didn’t. I honestly think it’s as simple as that.
Except I think the “championship honeymoon” is ending for the Blues. There’s a certain amount of grace period after a team wins it all where it doesn’t really matter what the team does, the fans are on your side. “Well you won it and it’s incredibly hard to win it, so I certainly am not going to complain if they don’t win it all for x amount of years.” This is only more true for a team like the Blues who have never won it before 2019. How long do you think it’s going to take for a Mariners fan to be unhappy with the direction of the team the minute they win it? It will be a while. That’s kind of where the Blues were.
I feel like the tide is turning, which caused me to wonder another question. How long exactly of a leash does a fanbase give a team following a championship and when did it end for the Cardinals? If you go by the Blues, let’s for the sake of argument say the Blues have another losing season this year. I feel pretty confident the honeymoon is over. I don’t think it’s quite over yet. If the Blues are a reference point, that means it takes seven seasons, during which the team wins one playoff series win, and has two losing seasons. But of course, the Blues had never won it so I think they will get more grace than the Cardinals will.
So when did the Cardinals end? Well I’ve only been alive for the 2006 and 2011 championships, but I don’t remember the honeymoon ever ending the first time. I think 2011 probably saved them. If 2011 didn’t go the way it went, I think the grumbling would have started. The attitude towards the team and organization was not particularly positive before September of that year and here certainly, people weren’t happy about the Colby Rasmus trade. But after they won, well obviously, the clock went back to zero.
And then they were actually good the next four years. In two of the next four seasons, they won at least 97 games, they made it to at least the NLCS three straight seasons, and the official end of that run came with a 100 win season in 2015. Sometime in the next three seasons after that, the Cardinals reputation among the fanbase was that they sought to be a team just good enough to get into the playoffs and no better.
There is some evidence it was as early as 2016. Towards the end of the 2016 season, Viva El Birdos <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/2016/9/29/13104096/cheering-for-the-2016-st-louis-cardinals-has-felt-more-like-an-obligation-than-a-privilege">had an article </a>saying the season felt like an obligation more than a privilege. Apparently a common sentiment as suggested from an article a week later, <a href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2016/10/4/13157890/cardinals-success-standards-2016-season">which was arguing the success</a> of the Cardinals spoiled the fanbase onto what a bad season actually looks like.
“Most fans surely wouldn’t find a 86 win performance so abhorrent, right? In one comment thread here at VEB, I saw a comment to the affect that the Cardinals obviously didn’t have a good season, and didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs.”
After some more digging, I think I pinpointed the exact moment it happened. When the Cardinals didn’t sign Luis Robert. Outrage that, in hindsight, looks a little silly now. The White Sox gave him a signing bonus of $26 million, including a near 100% tax on it, so they spent more than $50 million to sign him. The Cardinals would have had to pay more than that, for sure, because part of the appeal of the White Sox was Jose Abreu, who is also Cuban. Robert later signed a team-friendly $50 million deal. Robert has delivered 13.7 fWAR in his MLB career, which is still good value for $100+ million, but the Cardinals would have had to pay more and it’s just not quite the steal that people acted like it was. Robert has been too inconsistent and injury-prone to be a true game changer.
But broadly speaking, it reflects what really turned the fans against the Cardinals: they didn’t spend money and when they did, it was mid-tier contracts. They passed on Max Scherzer (100 percent justified I would argue and have argued), Robert, Bryce Harper, even someone like Kevin Gausman. They instead signed players like Mike Leake, and Dexter Fowler.
So how long was the 2011 championship honeymoon? Well, to bring it back to the Blues comparison, the 2016 season revealed some signs, but I think 2017 was officially when it was over. The Cardinals from 2012 to 2017 were arguably better than the Blues have been since 2019, but like I said before, I think the Cardinals were always going to get less leeway than a first-time winner.
Perhaps no greater sign in my personal opinion, and someone can tell me I’m wrong, that the two fanbases have responded vastly different to similar situations is that the Blues have an eerily similar succession plan for Doug Armstrong to leave as the Cardinals had for John Mozeliak. They have already announced who is replacing Armstrong who is still going to be GM for this season. Someone explain why this is different than Chaim Bloom being named the successor, I would love to know.
And the Blues haven’t gotten anywhere near the amount of pushback for doing this as the Cardinals. Not to mention – I mean I know hockey is a different sport and thus the person in charge of acquiring the roster won’t be a 1:1 comparison, but boy the baseball equivalent of announcing Alex Steen is the one taking over would not be news I wanted to hear. Yeah if you told me Adam Wainwright was in line to be the next GM, I would take that as a bad sign. I don’t think the Buster Posey move is going to work out, so I am consistent on this. But I’ve been told this is not equivalent, so I’ll just throw up my hands on this one and trust those who know better.
Anyway, none of the response to the Cardinals transition has actually been transferred to Chaim Bloom himself, which is good at least. People just wanted John Mozeliak gone and they don’t want Doug Armstrong gone. I acknowledge that plays a role here. Maybe they want him gone now I don’t know. But I will point out part of the criticism was how weird it was to do this, so I find it funny that the Blues essentially copied them.
Anyway, you could argue and I know some will that this discrepancy is because the Blues are better run (and they may be). But I would argue, generally speaking, fans care about results. If a team makes what is considered a smart move and it backfires, most fans care that it backfired not that it was originally smart. So whether or not the Blues are better run, I think the reason fans have been more lenient on the Blues is simply that they won it all in 2019.
So I am very interested to see if what happened in the first 10 games is at all indicative of how their season will turn out and if the fanbase will start to become more negative. I sense it already starting. I also would love if a St. Louis team could win the championship again so I could have another example of this phenomenon! It’s weirdly interesting to me. Since this is a Cardinals blog, let’s hope we have a Cardinals example in the near future.

]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>scooter</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers – A World Series Game 5 thread for October 29, 2025]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-game-threads/65317/toronto-blue-jays-at-los-angeles-dodgers-a-world-series-game-5-thread-for-october-29-2025" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/65317/toronto-blue-jays-at-los-angeles-dodgers-a-world-series-game-4-thread-for-october-28-2025</id>
<updated>2025-10-24T12:22:05-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-10-29T19:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Game Threads" />
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/gettyimages-2242485604.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>


]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>George Bowles</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[Let’s Trade Brendan Donovan! or not]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/65357/lets-trade-brendan-donovan-or-not" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=65357</id>
<updated>2025-10-29T01:11:10-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-10-29T07:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="VEB Daily" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Ok, admittedly I have been planning on writing this since last week’s article about solutions to the outfield conundrum/dilemma/failure. But just before writing this I found a link to an mlb trade rumors article talking about the same deal! So now it’s time to compare my limited ideas with whatever mlb trade rumors is talking […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/gettyimages-2237927027.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>
Ok, admittedly I have been planning on writing this since last week’s article about solutions to the outfield conundrum/dilemma/failure. But just before writing this I found a link to an mlb trade rumors article talking about the same deal! So now it’s time to compare my limited ideas with whatever mlb trade rumors is talking about.
Sorry, I’m not that excited about trading Brendan Donovan, but it sure seems like a good idea at the same time. He should bring back a decent value. I am hoping for a starting pitcher that is cromulent at least, with maybe a little potential to be more than a #3 or 4. But probably safe bet to be mid rotation starter, if we are lucky. But heck, even a solid #4 would be nice given the challenges that the starting rotation absolutely faces in 2026.
Who could we get for Brendan Donovan? Remember, I am trying to shore up the rotation here…
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Ryan Pepiot of the Rays <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-pepiot-686752?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-pepiot-686752?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb</a> I would think that it would take Donovan as well as a pretty good prospect to pry a promising starting pitcher age 28 from the Rays… maybe wishful thinking but perhaps a package could be put together, somehow. Why he’s good: offspeed pitch</li>
<li>Tanner Bibee <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tanner-bibee-676440?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tanner-bibee-676440?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb</a> Bibee would be more of a straight up trade, I would guess. He is much less of a certainty, with what seems to be potentially high upside with a relatively low floor. His 2023 and 2024 showed more rate stat promise as a better pitcher, but he didn’t fare as well in 2025 with a 4.24 ERA, more walks and hits per inning. But, he was pushed further in 2025 with a higher inning total in the same amount of games started. He could go either way next year, but could be a nice gamble for a solid #3 or 4. Why he’s good: effective breaking pitch and age 26</li>
<li>Edward Cabrera <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edward-cabrera-665795?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edward-cabrera-665795?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb</a> perhaps a bigger gamble than Bibee, Cabrera is 27 and has reduced his walks and hits so appears to be making progress as a starting pitcher. While he only pitched 137.2 innings last year, he appears to be ready to make the leap to 150 or so. Why he’s good: both his breaking pitches and offspeed pitches are a big strength of his, while his fastball is rather lackluster</li>
<li>Shane Baz <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/shane-baz-669358?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/shane-baz-669358?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb</a> at age 26 he is not too proven and is not a lock for a rotation spot, on most teams… if the Cardinals could get Baz plus another player from the Rays for Donovan, it would possibly make some sense. Why he’s good: can regularly hit 97 mph with the fastball, he can strike out some guys, while also having good numbers grounding out batters but none of his pitches really stick out so he’s a bit unfinished</li>
<li>Mitch Keller <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mitch-keller-656605?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mitch-keller-656605?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb</a> is the most proven arm on the list, if perhaps the least exciting… still if we wanted to deal with the lowly Pirates and help each other out, Keller has a decent enough fastball and doesn’t walk a lot of guys. He will eat innings much more effectively than some older pitcher. Why he’s good: fastball run value is very good, coupled with very good walk rates he is just a very sensical pitcher</li>
</ul>
Now to compare to the MLB Trade Rumors article published yesterday: <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/looking-for-a-match-in-a-brendan-donovan-trade.html">https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/looking-for-a-match-in-a-brendan-donovan-trade.html</a>
The Mark Polishuk article has a much wider scope with many hitters considered. After reading the article, it would seem that he is mostly writing about Donovan’s versatility. Which could both broaden his trade market, and bolster his overall value in trade. Sure he might best be traded at the deadline to the team who needs him most, but there are already plenty of teams that he would fit on, so maybe one of Chaim Bloom’s first moves will be to move Brendan Donovan simply due to his marketability, skillset, and plus hitting.
What do you think? Should the Cardinals keep and continue to build around Donovan? Should they only trade Donovan for whatever the best offer is, regardless of position? Or should the Cardinals aggressively pursue a trade of Donovan for a starting pitcher to address the rotation?
If you answered yes to the first question, what should the Cardinals do?
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Sign Nabil Crismatt</li>
<li>Throw tons of money at Shane Bieber or even Dylan Cease… maybe Zac Gallen?</li>
<li>Bring back Jack! (Flaherty)</li>
</ul>
There are actually a TON of free agent starting pitchers on the market if anyone has any ideas. <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/2025-26-mlb-free-agents.html">https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/2025-26-mlb-free-agents.html</a>

]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>scooter</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers – A World Series Game 4 thread for October 28, 2025]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-game-threads/65314/toronto-blue-jays-at-los-angeles-dodgers-a-world-series-game-4-thread-for-october-28-2025" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/65314/toronto-blue-jays-at-los-angeles-dodgers-a-world-series-game-3-thread-for-october-27-2025</id>
<updated>2025-10-24T12:20:47-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-10-28T19:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="St. Louis Cardinals Game Threads" />
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<figure>
<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/gettyimages-2242485604.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" />
<figcaption>
</figcaption>
</figure>


]]>
</content>
</entry>
<entry>
<author>
<name>Jake Wood</name>
</author>
<title type="html"><![CDATA[(Somewhat) Bold Offseason predictions – 2026 edition]]></title>
<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/65354/somewhat-bold-offseason-predictions-2026-edition" />
<id>https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/?p=65354</id>
<updated>2025-10-27T23:04:34-04:00</updated>
<published>2025-10-28T07:00:00-04:00</published>
<category scheme="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com" term="VEB Daily" />
<summary type="html"><![CDATA[I’ve now been with VEB for 1 year! Time has truly flown by, and I’ve had a blast being afforded the opportunities I’ve had since joining the team and continuing the great history of this website. Bringing you great readers’ insights, information, and interacting in general has been (mostly) enjoyable. But, enough about me, let’s […]]]></summary>
<content type="html">
<![CDATA[
<img src="https://platform.vivaelbirdos.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/176/2025/10/gettyimages-1258627673.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="WORCESTER, MA - JUNE 11: Chaim Bloom, Chief Baseball Officer for the Boston Red Sox, watches an MiLB AAA International League game between the Rochester Red Wings and Worcester Red Sox on June 11, 2023, at Polar Park in Worcester, MA. The Worcester Red Sox paid homage to the Worcester Worcesters of the 1800s by wearing special "Worcester Ruby Legs" uniforms as part of MiLB's "What If?" promotional series. (Photo by Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)" data-portal-copyright="" />
I’ve now been with VEB for 1 year! Time has truly flown by, and I’ve had a blast being afforded the opportunities I’ve had since joining the team and continuing the great history of this website. Bringing you great readers’ insights, information, and interacting in general has been (mostly) enjoyable. But, enough about me, let’s talk Cardinals! 
It’s the “dead period” for 28 other teams’ fan bases. I know most of you are groaning about the myriad of hypothetical offseason posts that continue to be shared that seem to all characterize the same set of questions that face the team – and trust me, we, the writing staff, are equally as eager to have something substantive to talk about as well! I will carry on the yearly tradition of posting my predictions for how the offseason will go with a slight element of boldness that lands somewhere between interesting and insightful, that doesn’t go full “hot take” mode. I will give 5 predictions and judge them the final week of spring training to determine just how well I read the tea leaves!
1. The Cardinals will trade a position player for pitching depth 
I’m sure some of your first thoughts are “duh, of course,” but the WHO may be more interesting than the what this time around. With Lars Nootbaar seemingly now more likely to return in 2026 than be traded due to his Haglund’s deformity diagnosis and recovery, and a history of injury problems, Lars will once again be tasked with exhibiting an ability to remain healthy and produce at the same time. Could he be a deadline candidate if all goes well in the first half? I believe that would be strongly within the realm of possibility, but nothing is for certain this offseason. I also wouldn’t expect him to be non-tendered either. At a modest 5.7 million projection – that’s peanuts for a team that is currently projected for a payroll of 80 million dollars short of its franchise peak 2 seasons ago and one that will likely shed a couple of large salaries this offseason.
With that being said, Brendan Donovan has struggled through his own physical issues and continues to be the topic of conversation when it comes to “who to cash in on.” I want to be clear – if I haven’t already been in the past, I would hate this, I think you make your clubhouse worse, I think you make your on field product worse, I think there is a high risk factor that the players the Cardinals would recieve in return for Donovan would never equate or surpass the production at the same level Donovan currently is, and most of all, Donovan is the EXACT type of player that will go on to a winning team, have big moments in the playoffs, and Cardinals fans will rip their hair out becuase “another one got away.” My opinion would be to buy out Donovan’s remaining arbitration years, add on two additional free agent years for some cost certainty, and make him your everyday 3rd baseman.
In 2025, Brendan Donovan had a .422 SLG%, which would have been the 8th highest among 18 qualified 3rd basemen in baseball, and his 119 wRC+ would’ve been 6th among that same group of qualified 3rd basemen. His bat will absolutely play at the position, and an infield consisting of Donovan at 3B, Winn at SS, Wetherholt at 2B, and Contreras at 1B would be a really strong group on both sides of the ball and provide a solid foundation for a competitive team in 2026. But, if the Cardinals decided he was the piece that would get them the young pitching they desperately need at the major league level, then I can understand the justification. I will be highly discouraged if the front office decides to trade him for Double-A prospects or pitchers with low ceilings. If you move Donovan, it had better dramatically alter your timeline, and if it doesn’t, and I’m not convinced that he doesn’t hold more value or appeal to STL than he does the league, then I don’t see trading him as beneficial.
Alec Burleson, I understand fans’ opinion that perhaps his ceiling is tapped out, and the Cardinals should sell on him now while he’s at a perceived peak. I think the Cardinals, and more specifically Oli Marmol, are big fans of Burleson and consistently lauded him as “one of the few to take advantage of the runway season.” Therefore, I don’t think the Cardinals will entertain trading the Silver Slugger finalist unless someone absolutely blows them out of the water.
Which brings me to Nolan Gorman. I don’t know if Gorman will ever reach his ceiling. I don’t know if the consistent swing and miss issues will ever get to a point where he’s able to be a consistent factor in the middle of a competitive lineup. I don’t think Busch Stadium is a place where he can realize his full potential as a pull power hitter, and Gorman is a marginal defender at best. Perhaps a change of scenery would most benefit the trajectory of his career and with Gorman being first year Arb eligible this offseason he’s going to start being less and less valuable until he leaves after 2028 and we all sigh and wonder what could have been or they can trade him now to a team that believes they can get the most out of him, has a ballpark that caters to his lefty pull power, and he can go out and play everyday and not worry about a log jam of players he has to compete against just to get semi regular playing time. Ultimately, I think the decision comes down to Donovan and Gorman this offseason, and Donovan has proved it more to me at the big league level. He’s the steadier, more consistent performer who is actually deserving of further investment. The power potential, the remaining years of control, and the rather large track record of health that Gorman elicits should be enough to entice interested teams to give up something interesting to see if they can unlock him, and, in my opinion, that would be the preferred route to go towards defining everyday roles.
2. The Cardinals will sign a veteran starter for their rotation
As it stands right now, the Cardinals currently project an opening day rotation including Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, and Kyle Leahy/Quinn Matthews. Sonny Gray has a no-trade clause but has indicated a willingness to waive it for the right fit this offseason. While Miles Mikolas was not a well-thought-of performer, he still provided innings, and losing two starters who gave you over 300 innings in 2025 would be irresponsible of the organization to ask for young, unproven starters to replace all of them. With that in mind, my favorite name to keep an eye on is German Marquez, who is coming off of a down year but saw his most healthy season since 2022, and was once one of the better starters in the National League, and you could argue taking him out of the nightmare that is the Colorado Rockies organization could lead to him having a mid career renisance. I wouldn’t propose anything further than a 1-year, 8 to 12 million dollar deal, see if you can procure a rebound first half, and look to flip him at the deadline to a contender (if you’re out of it). I dont believe the Cardinals will hunt multi-year deals for players this offseason with a looming labor strife on the horizon at next season’s end and I’ll be curious to see if player agents instruct their clients to be more open to accepting one year deals and trying to cash in next offseason once a new CBA is instituted and try to capitolize on a newly restructered financial landscape that could or could not include a cap and floor. Chaim Bloom has consistently recycled an old Mo-ism that they’re looking to be “Opportunistic” this offseason.
3. This will be the second offseason in a row that no player receives an extension
Let me be clear, if I were in charge, I would be exploring extensions with Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, and Brendan Donovan, and build out from there. I don’t think any of those deals will get done this offseason for a couple of different reasons. One, the Cardinals are looking to increase and maintain strong roster flexibility this offseason, and assuming heading into the 2027 offseason that holds such an uncertain future in regards to the financial landscape of the game that the ever risk-averse lead Dewitt ownership group likely will want to wait and see what shakes out of that situation before green-lighting longer-term commitments. Two, it takes TWO to tango in negotiations, and I’m not convinced any of the 3 would be willing to sit down and negotiate a well below market deal to obtain long-term certainty when they’re equally as intrigued as to what the potential changing financial landscape may hold for them down their careers as they inch closer to free agency. I think all 3 would allow their representation to engage, but I don’t think any settle for something like Paul Dejong signed to where it was such a crazy bargain for the production he provided early on.
4. The Cardinals will FINALLY trade Nolan Arenado 
I love Nolan Arenado as a player. I think he is a future Hall of Fame third baseman and we should be incredibly grateful we were able to witness several seasons of incredible play defensively at third and the couple of elite offensive seasons we were able to witness, as well. I also believe it’s time the Cardinals and their star 3rd baseman go their separate ways and keep moving forward. Chaim Bloom has indicated early this offseason that ownership is on board with committing more significant financial resources to move things along in trades and won’t be a hindrance on that front this offseason. Therefore, similarly to a reliever getting warmed up for a 2nd time in a game, this is the 2nd offseason in a row that Arenado is a prime trade candidate, and one would assume that he’s dealt this offseason, given his comments about being willing to expand his list of teams he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause for. I believe there will be varying levels of interest in Arenado from teams across the league, and how much interest they have will ultimately come down to what the financial commitment element will be, and a future Hall of Fame third baseman at a bargain rate will certainly appeal to teams looking for short-term improvements in an effort to get them over the top of their world series hunt.
5. The Cardinals will start the 2026 season with the lowest payroll in the NL Central 
This one hurts. The Pittsburgh Pirates have worn the crown of this achievement for several seasons now, but they still have financial commitments to Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller, and the Cardinals likely won’t be paying anyone other than Willson Contreras at the end of this offseason, so there is a real possibility that the Cardinals will have the lowest payroll in the division. I don’t have much more to say on this topic beyond I hope this is an anomalous situation and not a new normal, nor should it be, given the commitment Cardinals fans have held for years to support a competitive roster, but previous iterations of the Cardinals have left a sour taste in the fan base’s mouth, and they appear to be willing to be patient and root from afar until the team proves it can field a consistent winner on the field again.
I’m truthfully unsure of what exactly will happen this offseason, and in seasons past, I’ve successfully predicted what will happen or who they will bring in, as they had an established pattern of how they operate. This offseason is completely different with a unique set of circumstances that surround it, and I, for one, am fascinated to see how it all plays out, and I can’t wait to see what changes are made this offseason. I just need the stupid Dodgers to hurry up and win the World Series, like it will inevitably come to be no matter how long it takes, so I ask, please take the shortest amount of time possible so my writer friends and I can actually begin talking about substantive offseason topics again.
-Thanks for reading 
]]>
</content>
</entry>
</feed>

If you would like to create a banner that links to this page (i.e. this validation result), do the following:

Download the "valid Atom 1.0" banner.
Upload the image to your own server. (This step is important. Please do not link directly to the image on this server.)
Add this HTML to your page (change the image src attribute if necessary):

<a href="http://www.feedvalidator.org/check.cgi?url=https%3A//www.vivaelbirdos.com/rss/index.xml"><img src="valid-atom.png" alt="[Valid Atom 1.0]" title="Validate my Atom 1.0 feed" /></a>

If you would like to create a text link instead, here is the URL you can use:

http://www.feedvalidator.org/check.cgi?url=https%3A//www.vivaelbirdos.com/rss/index.xml

Home · About · News · Docs · Terms