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  11. <title>Doc Searls Weblog</title>
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  13. <link></link>
  14. <description>Holding forth on stuff since 1998</description>
  15. <lastBuildDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2018 04:27:45 +0000</lastBuildDate>
  16. <language>en-US</language>
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  20. <site xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">87129286</site> <item>
  21. <title>Enough Alreadies</title>
  22. <link></link>
  23. <comments></comments>
  24. <pubDate>Thu, 15 Mar 2018 22:05:33 +0000</pubDate>
  25. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  26. <category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
  27. <category><![CDATA[Personal]]></category>
  28. <category><![CDATA[problems]]></category>
  29. <category><![CDATA[publishing]]></category>
  31. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  32. <description><![CDATA[I just unsubscribed from Quora notifications. Reasons: With my new full-time gig as editor-in-chief of Linux Journal, I have close to no time for anything else, even though many other obligations do take time. Some of those also pay, and so require that I cut out as many distractions as I can. The filter bubble thing works [&#8230;]]]></description>
  33. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just unsubscribed from <a href="">Quora</a> notifications.</p>
  34. <p>Reasons:</p>
  35. <ol>
  36. <li>With my new full-time gig as editor-in-chief of <em>Linux Journal</em>, I have close to no time for anything else, even though many other obligations do take time. Some of those also pay, and so require that I cut out as many distractions as I can.</li>
  37. <li>The filter bubble thing works a bit too well. Two topics I&#8217;ve answered a lot—about <a href=";oq=doc+searls+quora">IQ</a> and <a href=";q=doc+searls+quora+radio">radio</a>—seem to bring an avalanche of others that beg to be answered, which I do too quickly, again and again. As a result I&#8217;ve said the same damn thing, or the same kinds of damn things, too many times.</li>
  38. <li>I&#8217;m not sure writing there does much good. But then, the world is now so thick with &#8220;content&#8221; that I&#8217;m not sure writing <em>anywhere</em> does as much good as it used to.</li>
  39. <li>It&#8217;s time now to look for effects. Except for up and down voting, which say almost nothing to me, I have little if any sense that anything I write on Quora means much, if anything, to other people.</li>
  40. <li>It&#8217;s not my space. It&#8217;s Quora&#8217;s</li>
  41. </ol>
  42. <p>Also, in case you haven&#8217;t noticed, I&#8217;ve slacked off here, at <a href=""></a> and other bloggy places of mine online, other than <a href="">in <em>Linux Journal</em></a>. And even there a lot of what I do there is behind the scenes.</p>
  43. <p>Even for people like me, whom marketers call &#8220;influencers&#8221; (and is nothing to brag about), writing to effect is getting harder and harder. Even if something gets a lot of notice, the news cycle is hardly longer than Now, and the sense of having done something quickly disappears.</p>
  44. <p>So, while it&#8217;s a small thing, I&#8217;m moving on from Quora and focusing on stuff I know matters, whether I sense effects or not.</p>
  45. <p>Life in the Fast &amp; Vast Lane, I guess.</p>
  46. ]]></content:encoded>
  47. <wfw:commentRss></wfw:commentRss>
  48. <slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
  49. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11475</post-id> </item>
  50. <item>
  51. <title>A Qualified Fail</title>
  52. <link></link>
  53. <comments></comments>
  54. <pubDate>Tue, 20 Feb 2018 17:21:22 +0000</pubDate>
  55. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  56. <category><![CDATA[adtech]]></category>
  57. <category><![CDATA[advertising]]></category>
  58. <category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
  59. <category><![CDATA[Cluetrain]]></category>
  60. <category><![CDATA[Customertech]]></category>
  61. <category><![CDATA[Identity]]></category>
  62. <category><![CDATA[Law]]></category>
  63. <category><![CDATA[marketing]]></category>
  64. <category><![CDATA[problems]]></category>
  65. <category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
  67. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  68. <description><![CDATA[Power of the People is a great grabber of a headline, at least for me. But it&#8217;s a pitch for a report that requires filling out the form here on the right: You see a lot of these: invitations to put one&#8217;s digital ass on mailing list, just to get a report that should have [&#8230;]]]></description>
  69. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href=""><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-11462" src="" alt="" width="315" height="599" srcset=" 315w, 158w" sizes="(max-width: 315px) 100vw, 315px" /></a><a href="">Power of the People</a> is a great grabber of a headline, at least for me. But it&#8217;s a pitch for a report that requires filling out the form here on the right:</p>
  70. <p>You see a lot of these: invitations to put one&#8217;s digital ass on mailing list, just to get a report that should have been public in the first place, but isn&#8217;t so personal data can be harvested and sold or given away to God knows who.</p>
  71. <p>And you do more than just &#8220;agree to join&#8221; a mailing list. You are now what marketers call a &#8220;qualified lead&#8221; for countless other parties you&#8217;re sure to be hearing from.</p>
  72. <p>And how can you be sure? Read the <a href="">privacy policy</a>,. This one (for <a href=""></a>) begins,</p>
  73. <blockquote><p>If you choose to submit content to any public area of our websites or services, your content will be considered &#8220;public&#8221; and will be accessible by anyone, including us, and will not be subject to the privacy protections set forth in this Privacy Policy unless otherwise required by law. We encourage you to exercise caution when making decisions about what information you disclose in such public areas.</p></blockquote>
  74. <p>Is the form above one of those &#8220;public areas&#8221;? Of course. What wouldn&#8217;t be? And are they are not <em>dis</em>couraging caution by requiring you to fill out all the personal data fields marked with a *? You betcha. See here:</p>
  75. <blockquote><p><strong>III. How we use and share your information</strong></p>
  76. <p><strong>A. To deliver services</strong></p>
  77. <p>In order to facilitate our delivery of advertising, analytics and other services, we may use and/or share the information we collect, including <a href="">interest-based segments</a> and user interest profiles containing demographic information, location information, gender, age, interest information and information about your computer, device, or group of devices, including your <a href="">IP address</a>, with our affiliates and third parties, such as our service providers, data processors, business partners and other third parties.</p>
  78. <p><strong>B. With third party clients and partners</strong></p>
  79. <p>Our online advertising services are used by advertisers, websites, applications and other companies providing online or internet connected advertising services. We may share information, including the information described in section III.A. above, with our clients and partners to enable them to deliver or facilitate the delivery of online advertising. We strive to ensure that these parties act in accordance with applicable law and industry standards, but we do not have control over these third parties. When you opt-out of our services, we stop sharing your interest-based data with these third parties. <a href="">Click here</a> for more information on opting out.</p></blockquote>
  80. <p>No need to bother opting out, by the way, because there&#8217;s this loophole too:</p>
  81. <blockquote><p><strong>D. To complete a merger or sale of assets</strong></p>
  82. <p>If we sell all or part of our business or make a sale or transfer of our assets or are otherwise involved in a merger or transfer of all or a material part of our business, or participate in any other similar business combination (including, without limitation, in connection with any bankruptcy or similar proceeding), we may transfer all or part of our data to the party or parties involved in the transaction as part of that transaction. You acknowledge that such transfers may occur, and that we and any purchaser of our business or assets may continue to collect, use and disclose your information in compliance with this Privacy Policy.</p></blockquote>
  83. <p>Okay, let&#8217;s be fair: this is boilerplate. Every marketing company—hell, every company period—puts jive like this in their privacy policies.</p>
  84. <p>And Viant isn&#8217;t one of marketing&#8217;s bad guys. Or at least that&#8217;s not how they see themselves. They do mean well, kinda, if you forget they see no alternative to tracking people.</p>
  85. <p>If you want to see what&#8217;s in that report without leaking your ID info to the world, the short cut is <a href="">New survey by people-based marketer Viant promotes marketing to identified users</a> in <a href="">@Martech_Today</a>.</p>
  86. <p>What you&#8217;ll see there is a company trying to be good to users in a world where those users have no more power than marketers give them. And giving marketers that ability is what Viant does.</p>
  87. <p>Curious&#8230; will Viant&#8217;s business persist after the <a href="">GDPR</a> trains heavy ordnance on it?</p>
  88. <p><a href=""><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11464" src="" alt="" width="500" height="221" srcset=" 1024w, 300w, 768w, 500w, 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px" /></a></p>
  89. <p>See, the GDPR  forbids gathering personal data about an EU citizen without that person&#8217;s clear permission—no matter where that citizen goes in the digital world, meaning to any site or service anywhere. It arrives in full force, with <a href="">fines of up to 4% of global revenues in the prior fiscal year</a>, on 25 May of this year: about three months from now.</p>
  90. <p>In case you&#8217;ve missed it, I&#8217;m not idle here.</p>
  91. <p>To help give individuals fresh GDPR-fortified leverage, and to save the asses of companies like Viant (which probably has lawyers working overtime on GDPR compliance), I&#8217;m working with <a href="">Customer Commons</a> (on the board of which I serve) on <a href="">terms individuals can proffer and companies can agree to</a>, giving them a form of protection, and agreeable companies a path toward GDPR compliance. And companies should like to agree, because those terms will align everyone&#8217;s interests from the start.</p>
  92. <p>I&#8217;m also working with <a href="">Linux Journal</a> (where I&#8217;ve recently been elevated to editor-in-chief) to make it one of the first publishers to agree to friendly terms its readers proffer. That&#8217;s why I posted <a href="">Every User a Neo</a> there. Other metaphors: <a href="">turning everyone on the Net into an Archimedes, with levers to move the world</a>, and <a href="">turning the whole marketplace in to a Marvel-like universe where all of us are enhanced</a>.</p>
  93. <p>If you want to help with any of that, talk to me.</p>
  94. <p>&nbsp;</p>
  95. ]]></content:encoded>
  96. <wfw:commentRss></wfw:commentRss>
  97. <slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
  98. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11461</post-id> </item>
  99. <item>
  100. <title>Mics Matter</title>
  101. <link></link>
  102. <comments></comments>
  103. <pubDate>Wed, 07 Feb 2018 22:40:30 +0000</pubDate>
  104. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  105. <category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>
  106. <category><![CDATA[audio]]></category>
  107. <category><![CDATA[marketing]]></category>
  108. <category><![CDATA[Personal]]></category>
  109. <category><![CDATA[problems]]></category>
  110. <category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
  111. <category><![CDATA[VRM]]></category>
  113. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  114. <description><![CDATA[Sometimes you get what you pay for. In this case, a good microphone in a bluetooth headset. Specifically, the Bose Soundsport Wireless: I&#8217;ve had these a day so far, and I love them. But not just because they sound good. Lots of earphones do that. I love them because the mic in the thing is [&#8230;]]]></description>
  115. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sometimes you get what you pay for.</p>
  116. <p>In this case, a good microphone in a bluetooth headset.</p>
  117. <p>Specifically, the <a href="">Bose Soundsport Wireless</a>:</p>
  118. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11451" src="" alt="" width="1000" height="1000" srcset=" 1000w, 150w, 300w, 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" /></p>
  119. <p>I&#8217;ve had these a day so far, and I love them. But not just because they sound good. Lots of earphones do that. I love them because the mic in the thing is good. This is surprisingly rare.</p>
  120. <p>Let&#8217;s start with the humble <a href="">Apple EarPods</a> that are overpriced at $29 but come free with every new Apple i-thing and for that reason are probably the most widely used earphones on Earth:</p>
  121. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11452" src="" alt="" width="474" height="474" srcset=" 474w, 150w, 300w" sizes="(max-width: 474px) 100vw, 474px" /></p>
  122. <p>No, their sound isn&#8217;t great. But get this: <em>in conversation t</em><em>hey sound good to ears at the other end</em>. Better, in my judgement than the fancy new <a href="">AirPods</a>. (Though according to Phil Windley in the comments below, they are good at suppressing ambient noise.) The AirPods are also better than lots of other earphones I&#8217;ve used: ones from Beats, SkullCandy, Sennheiser and plenty of other brands. (I lose and destroy earphones and headphones constantly.) In all my experience, I have have not heard any earphones or headphones that sound better than plain old EarPods. In fact I sometimes ask, when somebody sounds especially good over a voice connection, if they&#8217;re using EarPods. Very often the answer is yes. &#8220;How&#8217;d you guess?&#8221; they ask. &#8220;Because you sound unusually good.&#8221;</p>
  123. <p>So, when a refurbished iPhone 7 Plus arrived to replace my failing iPhone 5s two days ago, and it came with no headphone hole (bad, but I can live), I finally decided to get some wireless earphones. So I went to <a href=""><em>Consumer Reports</em></a> on the Web, printed out their ratings for <a href="">Wireless Portable Stereo Headphones</a> (alas, behind a subscription wall), went to the local Staples, and picked up a <a href="">JBL E25BT</a> for $49 against a $60 list price. I chose that one because Consumer Reports gives it a rating of 71 out of 100 (which isn&#8217;t bad, considering that 76 is the top rating for any of the 50 models on the list)—and they called it a &#8220;best buy&#8221; as well.</p>
  124. <p>I was satisfied until I talked to my wife over the JBL on my new phone. &#8220;You&#8217;re muffled,&#8221; she said. Then I called somebody else. &#8220;What?&#8221; they said. &#8220;I can&#8217;t hear you.&#8221; I adjusted the mic so it was closer to my mouth. &#8220;What?&#8221; they said again. I switched to the phone itself. &#8220;That&#8217;s better.&#8221; I then plugged the old EarPods into Apple&#8217;s Lightning dongle, which I also bought at Staples for $9. &#8220;Much better.&#8221;</p>
  125. <p>So the next day I decided to visit an Apple Store to see what they had, and recommended. I mean, I figured they&#8217;d have a fair chance of knowing.</p>
  126. <p>&#8220;I want a good mic more than I want good sound,&#8221; I said to the guy.  &#8220;Oh,&#8221; he replied. &#8220;I shouldn&#8217;t say this because we don&#8217;t sell them; but you need a Bose. They care about mics and theirs are the best. Go to the Best Buy down the street and see what they&#8217;ve got.&#8221; So I went.</p>
  127. <p>At Best Buy the guy said, &#8220;The best mic is in the Bose Soundsport Wireless.&#8221; I pulled my six-page Consumer Reports list of rated earphones out of my back pocket. There at the top of the ratings was the Soundsport. So I bought a blue one. Today I was on two long calls and both parties at the other ends said &#8220;You sound great.&#8221; One added, &#8220;Yeah, <em>really</em> good.&#8221; So there ya go.</p>
  128. <p>I&#8217;m sure there are other models with good mics; but I&#8217;m done looking, and I just want to share what I&#8217;ve found so far—and to implore all the outfits that rate earphones and headphones with mics to rate the mics too. It&#8217;s a kindness to the people at the other end of every call.</p>
  129. <p>Remember: conversations are two-way, and the person speaking has almost no idea how good they&#8217;re sounding to the other person over a mobile phone. So give the mics some weight.</p>
  130. <p>And thanks, Bose. Good product.</p>
  131. ]]></content:encoded>
  132. <wfw:commentRss></wfw:commentRss>
  133. <slash:comments>7</slash:comments>
  134. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11450</post-id> </item>
  135. <item>
  136. <title>Geology answers for Montecito and Santa Barbara</title>
  137. <link></link>
  138. <comments></comments>
  139. <pubDate>Sun, 28 Jan 2018 00:30:32 +0000</pubDate>
  140. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  141. <category><![CDATA[Future]]></category>
  142. <category><![CDATA[Geography]]></category>
  143. <category><![CDATA[Geology]]></category>
  144. <category><![CDATA[history]]></category>
  145. <category><![CDATA[infrastructure]]></category>
  146. <category><![CDATA[Nature]]></category>
  147. <category><![CDATA[Photography]]></category>
  148. <category><![CDATA[Places]]></category>
  149. <category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
  150. <category><![CDATA[Santa Barbara]]></category>
  151. <category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
  152. <category><![CDATA[ThomasFire]]></category>
  153. <category><![CDATA[weather]]></category>
  154. <category><![CDATA[wildfire]]></category>
  156. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  157. <description><![CDATA[Just before it started, the geology meeting at the Santa Barbara Central Library on Thursday looked like this from the front of the room (where I also tweeted the same pano): Our speakers were geology professor Ed Keller of UCSB and Engineering Geologist Larry Gurrola, who also works and studies with Ed. That&#8217;s Ed in the [&#8230;]]]></description>
  158. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just before it started, the geology meeting at the Santa Barbara Central Library on Thursday looked like this from the front of the room (where I also <a href="">tweeted</a> the same pano):</p>
  159. <p><img src="" alt="Geologist Ed Keller" align="left" /></p>
  160. <p>Our speakers were geology professor <a href="">Ed Keller</a> of UCSB and Engineering Geologist <a href="">Larry Gurrola</a>, who also works and studies with Ed. That&#8217;s Ed in the shot below.</p>
  161. <p>As a geology freak, I know how easily terms like &#8220;debris flow,&#8221; &#8220;fanglomerate&#8221; <img class="size-full wp-image-11428 alignleft" src="" alt="" width="338" height="500" srcset=" 338w, 203w" sizes="(max-width: 338px) 100vw, 338px" />and &#8220;alluvial fan&#8221; can clear a room. But this gig was SRO. That&#8217;s because around 3:15 in the morning of January 9th, debris flowed out of canyons and deposited fresh fanglomerate across the alluvial fan that comprises most of <a href=",_California">Montecito</a>, destroying (by my count on the map below) 178 buildings, damaging more than twice that many, and killing 23 people. Two of those—a 2 year old girl and a 17 year old boy—are still interred in the fresh fanglomerate and sought by cadaver dogs. The whole thing is beyond sad and awful.</p>
  162. <p>The town was evacuated after the disaster so rescue and recovery work could proceed without interference, and infrastructure could be found and repaired: a job that required removing twenty thousand truckloads of mud and rocks. That work continues while evacuation orders are gradually lifted, allowing the town to repopulate itself to the very limited degree it can.</p>
  163. <p>I talked today with a friend whose business is cleaning houses. Besides grieving the dead, some of whom were friends or customers, she reports that the cleaning work is some of the worst she has ever seen, even in homes that were spared the mud and rocks. Refrigerators and freezers, sitting closed and without electricity for weeks, reek of death and rot. Other customers won&#8217;t be back because their houses are gone.</p>
  164. <p>Highway 101, one of just two freeways connecting Northern and Southern California, runs through town near the coast and more than two miles from the mountain front. Three debris flows converged on the highway and used it as a catch basin, filling its deep parts to the height of at least one bridge before spilling over its far side and continuing to the edge of the sea. It took two weeks of constant excavation and repair work before traffic could move again. Most exits remain closed. Coast Village Road, Montecito&#8217;s Main Street, is open for employees of stores there, but little is open for customers yet, since infrastructural graces such as water are not fully restored. (I saw the Honor Bar operating with its own water tank, and a water truck nearby.) Opening Upper Village will take longer. Some landmark institutions, such as San Ysidro Ranch and La Casa Santa Maria, will take years to restore. (From what I gather, San Ysidro Ranch, arguably the nicest hotel in the world, was nearly destroyed. Its website thank firefighters for salvation from the Thomas Fire. But nothing, I gather, could have save it from the huge debris flow wiped out nearly everything on the flanks of San Ysidro Creek. (All the top red dots along San Ysidro Creek in the map below mark lost buildings at the Ranch.)</p>
  165. <p><a href="">Here is a map</a> with final damage assessments. I&#8217;ve augmented it with labels for the canyons and creeks (with one exception: a parallel creek west of Toro Canyon Creek):</p>
  166. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11446" src="" alt="" width="1546" height="896" srcset=" 1546w, 300w, 768w, 1024w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 1546px) 100vw, 1546px" /></p>
  167. <p>Click on the map for a closer view, or click <a href="">here</a> to view the original. On that one you can click on every dot and read details about it.</p>
  168. <p>I should pause to note that Montecito is no ordinary town. Demographically, it&#8217;s <a href=",_California">Beverly Hills</a> draped over a prettier landscape and attractive to people who would rather not live in Beverly Hills. (In fact the number of notable persons Wikipedia lists for Montecito outnumbers those it lists for Beverly Hills by a score of <a href=",_California#Notable_people">77</a> to <a href=",_California#Notable_people">71</a>.) Culturally, it&#8217;s a village. <a href="">Last Monday in <em>The New Yorker</em></a>, one of those notable villagers, <a href="">T.Coraghessan Boyle</a>, unpacked some other differences:</p>
  169. <blockquote><p>I moved here twenty-five years ago, attracted by the natural beauty and semirural ambience, the short walk to the beach and the Lower Village, and the enveloping views of the Santa Ynez Mountains, which rise abruptly from the coastal plain to hold the community in a stony embrace. We have no sidewalks here, if you except the business districts of the Upper and Lower Villages—if we want sidewalks, we can take the five-minute drive into Santa Barbara or, more ambitiously, fight traffic all the way down the coast to Los Angeles. But we don’t want sidewalks. We want nature, we want dirt, trees, flowers, the chaparral that did its best to green the slopes and declivities of the mountains until last month, when the biggest wildfire in California history reduced it all to ash.</p></blockquote>
  170. <p>Fire is a prerequisite for debris flows, our geologists explained. So is unusually heavy rain in a steep mountain watershed. There are five named canyons, each its own watershed, above Montecito, as we see on the map above. There are more to the east, above Summerland and Carpinteria, the next two towns down the coast. Those towns also took some damage, though less than Montecito.</p>
  171. <p>Ed Keller put up this slide to explain conditions that trigger debris flows, and how they work:</p>
  172. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11418" src="" alt="" width="666" height="370" srcset=" 666w, 300w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 666px) 100vw, 666px" /></p>
  173. <p>Ed and Larry were emphatic about this: <em>debris flows are not landslides</em>, nor do many start that way (though one did <a href="">in Rattlesnake Canyon</a> 1100 years ago). <em>They are also not mudslides</em>, so we should stop calling them that. (Though we won&#8217;t.)</p>
  174. <p>Debris flows require sloped soils left bare and <a href="">hydrophobic</a>—resistant to water—after a recent wildfire has burned off the <a href="">chaparral</a> that normally (as geologists say) &#8220;hairs over&#8221; the landscape. For a good look at what soil surfaces look like, and are likely to respond to rain, look at the smooth slopes on the uphill side of 101 east of La Conchita. Notice how the surface is not only a smooth brown or gray, but has a crust on it. In a way, the soil surface has turned to glass. That&#8217;s why water runs off of it so rapidly.</p>
  175. <p>Wildfires are common, and chaparral is adapted to them, becoming fuel for the next fire as it regenerates and matures. But rainfalls as intense as this one are not common. In just five minutes alone, more than half an inch of rain fell in the steep and funnel-like watersheds above Montecito. This happens about once every few hundred years, or about as often as a tsunami.</p>
  176. <p>It&#8217;s hard to generalize about the combination of factors required, but Ed has worked hard to do that, and this slide of his is one way of illustrating how debris flows happen eventually in places like Montecito and Santa Barbara:</p>
  177. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11424" src="" alt="" width="669" height="402" srcset=" 669w, 300w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 669px) 100vw, 669px" /></p>
  178. <p>From bottom to top, here&#8217;s what it says:</p>
  179. <ol>
  180. <li>Fires happen almost regularly, spreading most widely where chaparral has matured to become abundant fuel, as the firefighters like to call it.</li>
  181. <li>Flood events are more random, given the relative rarity of rain and even more rare rains of &#8220;biblical&#8221; volume. But they do happen.</li>
  182. <li>Stream beds in the floors of canyons accumulate rocks and boulders that roll down the gradually eroding slopes over time. The depth of these is expressed as basin instablity. Debris flows clear out the rocks and boulders when a big flood event comes right after a fire and basin becomes stable (relatively rock-free) again.</li>
  183. <li>The sediment yield in a flood (F) is maximum when a debris flow (DF) occurs.</li>
  184. <li>Debris flows tend to happen once every few hundred years. And you&#8217;re not going to get the big ones if you don&#8217;t have the canyon stream bed full of rocks and boulders.</li>
  185. </ol>
  186. <p>About this set of debris flows in particular:</p>
  187. <ol>
  188. <li>Destruction down Oak Creek wasn&#8217;t as bad as on Montecito, San Ysidro, Buena Vista and Romero Creeks because the canyon feeding it is smaller.</li>
  189. <li>When debris flows hit an obstruction, such as a bridge, they seek out a new bed to flow on. This is one of the actions that creates an alluvial fan. From <a href="">the map</a> it appears something like that happened—
  190. <ol style="list-style-type: lower-alpha">
  191. <li>Where the flow widened when it hit Olive Mill Road, fanning east of Olive Mill to destroy all three blocks between Olive Mill and Santa Elena Lane before taking the Olive Mill bridge across 101 and down to the Biltmore while also helping other flows fill 101 as well. (See Mac&#8217;s comment below, and his link to a top map.)</li>
  192. <li>In the area between Buena Vista Creek and its East Fork, which come off different watersheds</li>
  193. <li>Where a debris flow forked south of Mountain Drive after destroying San Ysidro Ranch, continuing down both Randall and El Bosque Roads.</li>
  194. </ol>
  195. </li>
  196. </ol>
  197. <p>For those who caught (or are about to catch) <a href="">Ellen&#8217;s Facetime with Oprah visiting neighbors</a>, that happened among the red dots at the bottom end of the upper destruction area along San Ysidro Creek, just south of East Valley Road. Oprah&#8217;s own place is in the green area beside it on the left, looking a bit like Versailles. (Credit where due, though: Oprah&#8217;s was a good and compassionate report.)</p>
  198. <p>Big question: did these debris flows clear out the canyon floors? We (meaning our geologists, sedimentologists, hydrologists and other specialists) won&#8217;t know until they trek back into the canyons to see how it all looks. Meanwhile, we do have clues. For example, <a href="">here are after-and-before photos of Montecito, shot from space</a>. And here is my close-up of the latter, shot one day after the event, when everything was still bare streambeds in the mountains and fresh muck in town:</p>
  199. <p><a href=";utm_source=TWITTER&amp;utm_medium=NASA&amp;utm_campaign=NASASocial&amp;linkId=46944841"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11408" src="" alt="" width="720" height="480" srcset=" 720w, 300w, 450w" sizes="(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" /></a>See the white lines fanning back into the mountains through the canyons (Cold Spring, San Ysidro, Romero, Toro) above Montecito? Ed explained that these appear to be the washed out beds of creeks feeding into those canyons. Here is his slide showing Cold Spring Creek before and after the event:</p>
  200. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11420" src="" alt="" width="620" height="500" srcset=" 620w, 300w, 372w" sizes="(max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px" /></p>
  201. <p>Looking back at Ed&#8217;s basin threshold graphic above, one might say that there isn&#8217;t much sediment left for stream beds to yield, and that those in the floors of the canyons have returned to stability, meaning there&#8217;s little debris left to flow.</p>
  202. <p>But that photo was of just one spot. There are many miles of creek beds to examine back in those canyons.</p>
  203. <p>Still, one might hope that Montecito has now had its required 200-year event, and a couple more centuries will pass before we have another one.</p>
  204. <p>Ed and Larry caution against such conclusions, emphasizing that most of Montecito&#8217;s and Santa Barbara&#8217;s inhabited parts gain their existence, beauty or both by grace of debris flows. If your property features boulders, Ed said, a debris flow put them there, and did that not long ago in geologic time.</p>
  205. <p>For an example of boulders as landscape features, here are some we quarried out of our yard more than a decade ago, when we were building a house dug into a hillside:</p>
  206. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11411" src="" alt="" width="1136" height="598" srcset=" 1136w, 300w, 768w, 1024w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 1136px) 100vw, 1136px" /></p>
  207. <p>This is deep in the heart of Santa Barbara.</p>
  208. <p>The matrix mud we now call soil here is likely a mix of <a href="">Juncal</a> and <a href="">Cozy Dell</a> shale, Ed explained. Both are poorly lithified silt and erode easily. The boulders are a mix of <a href="">Matilija</a> and <a href="">Coldwater</a> sandstone, which comprise the hardest and most vertical parts of the Santa Ynez mountains. The two are so similar that only a trained eye can tell them apart.</p>
  209. <p>All four of those geological formations were established long after dinosaurs vanished. All also accumulated originally as sediments, mostly on ocean floors, probably not far from the equator.</p>
  210. <p>To illustrate one chapter in the story of how those rocks and sediments got here, UCSB has <a href="">a terrific animation</a> of how the transverse (east-west) Santa Ynez Mountains came to be where they are. Here are three frames in that movie:<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11421" src="" alt="" width="300" height="427" /></p>
  211. <p>What it shows is how, when the Pacific Plate was grinding its way northwest about eighteen million years ago, a hunk of that plate about a hundred miles long and the shape of a bread loaf broke off. At the top end was the future Malibu hills and at the bottom end was the future Point Conception, then situated south of what&#8217;s now Tijuana. The future Santa Barbara was west of the future Newport Beach. Then, when the Malibu end of this loaf got jammed at the future Los Angeles, the bottom end of the loaf swept out, clockwise and intact. At the start it was pointing at 5 o&#8217;clock and at the end (which isn&#8217;t), it pointed at 9:00. This was, and remains, a sideshow off the main event: the continuing crash of the Pacific Plate and the North American one.</p>
  212. <p>Here is an image that helps, from that same link:</p>
  213. <p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-11437" src="" alt="" width="960" height="720" srcset=" 960w, 300w, 768w, 400w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></p>
  214. <p>Find more geology, with lots of links, in <a href="">Making sense of what happened to Montecito</a>. I put that post up on the 15th and have been updating it since then. It&#8217;s the most popular post in the history of this blog, which I started in 2007. There are also 58 comments, so far.</p>
  215. <p>I&#8217;ll be adding more to this post after I visit as much as I can of Montecito (<a href="">exclusion zones</a> permitting). Meanwhile, I hope this proves useful. Again, corrections and improvements are invited.</p>
  216. <p>30 January</p>
  217. <ul>
  218. <li><a href="">USGS Geologists Join Efforts in Montecito to Assess Debris-Flow Aftermath</a>.</li>
  219. <li><em>The Independent</em> has a comprehensive and frequently updated <a href=";z=11&amp;mid=1tSzYm6DZpootH4aS3STEfYIHYPgak2jO">Montecito Mudslides Disaster Assessment Map.</a></li>
  220. <li><em>Noozhawk</em> reports Caltrans, County Need to Replace Multiple Montecito Bridges After Storm Damage</li>
  221. <li><em>Felicia S. </em>blogs <a href="">The Silence of Epiphany: An Unexpected Lesson in Geology</a>.</li>
  222. <li><em>CNN Report: </em><a href="">Her parents died in the mudslide. A stranger brought her mom&#8217;s earrings back to her</a>. The Facebook page in the report is <a href="">Montecito Lost and Found</a>.</li>
  223. </ul>
  224. <p>&nbsp;</p>
  225. ]]></content:encoded>
  226. <wfw:commentRss></wfw:commentRss>
  227. <slash:comments>17</slash:comments>
  228. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11406</post-id> </item>
  229. <item>
  230. <title>Geology questions for Montecito and Santa Barbara</title>
  231. <link></link>
  232. <comments></comments>
  233. <pubDate>Fri, 26 Jan 2018 00:43:45 +0000</pubDate>
  234. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  235. <category><![CDATA[infrastructure]]></category>
  236. <category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
  237. <category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
  238. <category><![CDATA[Technology]]></category>
  239. <category><![CDATA[ThomasFire]]></category>
  240. <category><![CDATA[weather]]></category>
  241. <category><![CDATA[wildfire]]></category>
  243. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  244. <description><![CDATA[This post continues the inquiry I started with Making sense of what happened to Montecito. That post got a record number of reads for this blog, and 57 comments as well. I expect to learn more at the community meeting this evening with UCSB geologist Ed Keller in the Faulkner Room in the main library [&#8230;]]]></description>
  245. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This post continues the inquiry I started with <a href="">Making sense of what happened to Montecito</a>. That post got a record number of reads for this blog, and 57 comments as well.</p>
  246. <p>I expect to learn more at the community meeting this evening with <a href="">UCSB geologist Ed Keller</a> in the Faulkner Room in the main library in Santa Barbara. <a href="">Here&#8217;s the Library schedule</a>. Note that the meeting will be streamed live on Facebook.</p>
  247. <p>Meanwhile, to help us focus on the geology questions, here is the final post-mudslide damage inspection map of Montecito:</p>
  248. <p><a href=""><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11395" src="" alt="" width="877" height="417" srcset=" 877w, 300w, 768w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 877px) 100vw, 877px" /></a>I left out Carpinteria, because of the four structures flagged there, three were blue (affected) and one was yellow (minor), and none were orange (major) or red (destroyed). I&#8217;m also guessing they were damaged by flooding rather than debris flow. I also want to make the map as legible as possible, so we can focus on where the debris flows happened, and how we might understand the community&#8217;s prospects for the future.</p>
  249. <p>So here are my questions, all subject to revision and correction.</p>
  250. <ol>
  251. <li>How much of the damage was due to debris flow alone, and how much to other factors (e.g. rain-caused flooding, broken water pipes)?</li>
  252. <li>Was concentration of rain the main reason why we saw flows in the canyons above Montecito, but not (or less so) elsewhere?</li>
  253. <li>Where exactly did the debris flow from? And has the area been surveyed well enough to predict what future debris flows might happen if we get big rains this winter and ones to follow?</li>
  254. <li>Do we need bigger catch basins for debris, like they have at the base of the San Gabriels, above Los Angeles&#8217; basin?</li>
  255. <li>How do the slopes above Montecito and Santa Barbara differ from other places (e.g. the San Gabriels) where debris flows (and rock falls) are far more common?</li>
  256. <li>What geology-advised changes in our infrastructure (especially water and gas) might we make, based on what we&#8217;ve learned so far?</li>
  257. <li>What might we expect (that most of us don&#8217;t now) in the form of other catastrophes that show up in the geologic record? For example, earthquakes and tsunamis. See <a href="">here</a>: &#8220;This earthquake was associated with by far the largest seismic sea wave ever reported for one originating in California. Descriptive accounts indicate that it may have reached elevations of 15 feet at Gaviota, 30 to 35 feet at Santa Barbara, and 15 feet or more in Ventura. It may have even shown visible effects in the San Francisco harbor.&#8221; There is also <a href="">this</a>, which links to questions about the former report. (Still, there have been a number of catastrophic earthquakes on or affecting the South Coast, and it has been 93 years since <a href="">the 1925 quake</a> — and the whole Pacific Coast is subject to tsunamis. <a href=";safe=off&amp;client=firefox-b-1-ab&amp;biw=1316&amp;bih=805&amp;tbm=isch&amp;sa=1&amp;ei=FHlqWun8FcHEjwODib_QBA&amp;q=santa+barbara+earthquake+1925&amp;oq=santa+barbara+earth&amp;gs_l=psy-ab.3.1.0l3j0i24k1l7.4929.8158.0.10211.">Here are some photos of the quake</a>.)</li>
  258. </ol>
  259. <p>Note that I don&#8217;t want to ask Ed to play a finger-pointing role here. Laying blame isn&#8217;t his job, unless he&#8217;s blaming nature for being itself.</p>
  260. <p>Additional reading:</p>
  261. <ul>
  262. <li><a href="">Dan McCaslin: Rattlesnake Canyon Fine Now for Day Hiking</a> (Noozhawk) Pull-quote: &#8220;Santa Barbara geologist Ed Keller has said that all of Santa Barbara is built on debris flows piled up during the past 60,000 years. Around 1100 A.D., a truly massive debris flow slammed through Rattlesnake Canyon into Mission Canyon, leaving large boulders as far down as the intersection of Alamar Avenue and State Street (go check). There were Chumash villages in the area, and they may have been completely wiped out then. While some saddened Montecitans claim that sudden flash floods and debris flows should have been forecast more accurately, this seems impossible.&#8221;</li>
  263. <li>Those deadly mudslides you’ve read about? Expect worse in the future. (Wall Street Journal) Pull-quote: &#8220;Montecito is particularly at risk as the hill slopes above town are oversteepened by faulting and rapid uplift, and much of the town is built on deposits laid down by previous floods. Some debris basins were in place, but they were quickly overtopped by the hundreds of thousands of cubic yards of water and sediment. While high post-fire runoff and erosion rates could be expected, it was not possible to accurately predict the exact location and extreme magnitude of this particular storm and resulting debris flows.&#8221;</li>
  264. <li><a href=";ll=34.43264320396054%2C-119.64087074714581&amp;z=15">Evacuation Areas Map</a>.</li>
  265. <li><a href="">Thomas Fire: Forty Days of Devastation</a> (LA Times) Includes what happened to Montecito. Excellent step-by-step 3D animation.</li>
  266. </ul>
  267. ]]></content:encoded>
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  269. <slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
  270. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11393</post-id> </item>
  271. <item>
  272. <title>Making sense of what happened to Montecito</title>
  273. <link></link>
  274. <comments></comments>
  275. <pubDate>Tue, 16 Jan 2018 02:25:59 +0000</pubDate>
  276. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  277. <category><![CDATA[fire]]></category>
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  288. <category><![CDATA[weather]]></category>
  289. <category><![CDATA[wildfire]]></category>
  290. <category><![CDATA[debris flow]]></category>
  291. <category><![CDATA[flood]]></category>
  292. <category><![CDATA[Montecito]]></category>
  293. <category><![CDATA[mudslide]]></category>
  294. <category><![CDATA[ThomasFire]]></category>
  296. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  297. <description><![CDATA[Montecito is now a quarry with houses in it: So far twenty dead have been removed. It will take much more time to remove twenty thousand dump truck loads of what geologists call &#8220;debris,&#8221; just to get down to where civic infrastructure (roads, water, electric, gas) can be fixed. It&#8217;s a huge thing. The big [&#8230;]]]></description>
  298. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href=",_California">Montecito</a> is now a quarry with houses in it:</p>
  299. <p><a href=""><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11362" src="" alt="" width="767" height="394" srcset=" 767w, 300w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 767px) 100vw, 767px" /></a>So far twenty dead have been removed. It will take much more time to remove twenty thousand dump truck loads of what geologists call &#8220;debris,&#8221; just to get down to where civic infrastructure (roads, water, electric, gas) can be fixed. It&#8217;s a huge thing.</p>
  300. <p>The big questions:</p>
  301. <ol>
  302. <li>Did we know a catastrophe this huge was going to happen? (And if so, which among us were the &#8220;we&#8221; who knew?)</li>
  303. <li>Was there any way to prevent it?</li>
  304. </ol>
  305. <p>Geologists had their expectations, expressed as degrees of likelihood and detailed on <a href="">this map by the United States Geological Survey</a>:</p>
  306. <p><a href=""><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11366" src="" alt="" width="1073" height="1098" srcset=" 1073w, 293w, 768w, 1001w" sizes="(max-width: 1073px) 100vw, 1073px" /></a>That was dated more than a month before huge rains revised to blood-red the colors in the mountains above town. Worries of County Supervisors and other officials were expressed in <em>The Independent</em> on January <a href="">3rd</a> and <a href="">5th</a>. <em>Edhat</em> also issued warnings on January <a href="">5th</a> and <a href="">6th</a>.</p>
  307. <p><em>Edhat&#8217;</em>s first report began, &#8220;Yesterday, the National Weather Service issued a weather briefing of a potential significant winter storm for Santa Barbara County on January 9-10. With the burn scar created by the Thomas Fire, the threat of flash floods and debris/mud flows is now 10 times greater than before the fire.&#8221;</p>
  308. <p>But among those at risk, who knew what a &#8220;debris/mud flow&#8221; was—especially when nobody had ever seen one of those anywhere around here, even after prior fires?</p>
  309. <p>The first <em>Independent </em>story (on January 3rd) reported, &#8220;County water expert Tom Fayram said county workers began clearing the debris basins at San Ysidro and Gobernador canyons &#8216;as soon as the fire department would let us in.&#8217; It is worth noting, Lewin said, that the Coast Village Road area flooded following the 1971 Romero Fire and the 1964 Coyote Fire. While touring the impact areas in recent days, (Office of Emergency Management Director Robert) Lewin said problems have already occurred. &#8216;We’re starting to see gravity rock fall, he said. &#8216;One rock could close a road.'&#8221;</p>
  310. <p>The best report I&#8217;ve seen about what geologists knew, and expected, is <em>The Independent</em>&#8216;s <a href="">After the Mudslides, What Does the Next Rain Hold for Montecito?</a>, published four days after the disaster. In that report, Kevin Cooper of the U.S. Forest Service said, &#8220;no one alive has probably ever seen one before.&#8221; [January 18 update: Nick Welch in<em> The Independent</em> <a href="">reports</a>, &#8220;Last week’s debris flow was hardly Santa Barbara’s first. Jim Stubchaer, then an engineer with County Flood Control, remembers the avalanche of mud that took 250 homes back in November 1964 when heavy rains followed quickly on the heels of the Coyote Fire. He was there in 1969 and 1971 when it happened again.&#8221;<a href=""> Here is a long 2009 report on the Coyote Fire</a> in <em>The Independent</em> by Ray Ford, now with <em>Noozhawk</em>. No mention of the homes lost in there. Perhaps Ray can weigh in.]</p>
  311. <p>My point is that debris flows over Montecito ae a sure bet in geologic time, but not in the human one. In the whole history of Montecito and Santa Barbara (of which Montecito is an unincorporated part), there are no recorded debris flows that started on mountain slopes and spread all the way to the sea. But on January 9th we had several debris flows on that scale, originating simultaneously in the canyons feeding Montecito, San Ysidro and Romero Creeks. Those creeks are dry most of the time, and beautiful areas in which to build homes: so beautiful, in fact, that Montecito is the other Beverly Hills. (That&#8217;s why <a href=",_California#Notable_people">all these famous people</a> have called it home.)</p>
  312. <p>One well-studied prehistoric debris flow in Santa Barbara emptied a natural lake that is now <a href="">Skofield Park</a>,dumping long-gone mud and lots of rocks in Rattlesnake Canyon, leaving its clearest evidence in a charming tree-shaded boulder field next to Mission Creek called <a href="">Rocky Nook Park</a>.</p>
  313. <p>What geologists at UCSB learned from that flow is detailed in a 2001 report titled <a href="">UCSB Scientists Study Ancient Debris Flows</a>. It begins, &#8220;The next &#8216;big one&#8217; in Santa Barbara may not be an earthquake but a boulder-carrying flood.&#8221; It also says that flood would &#8220;most likely occur every few thousand years.&#8221;</p>
  314. <p>And we got one in Montecito last Tuesday.</p>
  315. <p>I&#8217;ve read somewhere that studies of charcoal from campfires buried in Rocky Nook Park date that debris flow at around 500 years ago. This is a good example of how the geologic present fails to include present human memory. Still, you can get an idea of how big this flow was. Stand in Rattlesnake Canyon downstream from Skofield Park and look at the steep rocky slopes below houses on the south side of the canyon. It isn&#8217;t hard to imagine the violence that tore out the smooth hillside that had been there before.</p>
  316. <p>To help a bit more with that exercise, <a href="">here is a Google Streetview</a> of Scofield Park, looking down at Santa Barbara through Rattlesnake Canyon:</p>
  317. <p><a href=""><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11384" src="" alt="" width="960" height="439" srcset=" 960w, 300w, 768w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></a></p>
  318. <p>I added the red line to show the approximate height of the natural dam that broke and released that debris flow.</p>
  319. <p>I&#8217;ve also learned that the loaf-shaped Riviera landform in Santa Barbara is not a hunk of solid rock, but rather what remains of a giant landslide that slid off the south face of the Santa Ynez Mountains and became free-standing after creeks eroded out the valley behind. I&#8217;ve also read that Mission Creek flows westward around the Riviera and behind the Mission because the Riviera itself is also sliding the same direction on its own tectonic sled.</p>
  320. <p>We only see these sleds moving, however, when geologic and human time converge. That happened last Tuesday when rains Kevin Cooper <a href="">calls</a> &#8220;biblical&#8221; hit in the darkest hours, saturating the mountain face creek beds that were burned by the Thomas Fire just last month. As a result, debris flows gooped down the canyons and stream valleys below, across Montecito to the sea, depositing lots of geology on top of what was already there.</p>
  321. <p>So in retrospect, those slopes in various colors in the top map above should have been dark red instead. But, to be fair, much of what geology knows is learned the hard way.</p>
  322. <p>Our home, one zip code west of Montecito, is fine. But we can&#8217;t count how many people we know who are affected directly. One friend barely escaped. Some victims were friends of friends. Some of the stories are beyond awful.</p>
  323. <p>We all process tragedies like this in the ways we know best, and mine is by reporting on stuff, hopefully in ways others are not, or at least not yet. So I&#8217;ll start with <a href="">this map showing damaged and destroyed buildings along the creeks:</a></p>
  324. <p><a href=""><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11369" src="" alt="" width="484" height="344" srcset=" 484w, 300w, 422w" sizes="(max-width: 484px) 100vw, 484px" /></a>At this writing the map is 70% complete. [January 17 update: 95%.] I&#8217;ve clicked on all the red dots (which mark destroyed buildings, most of which are homes), and I&#8217;ve copied and pasted the addresses that pop up into the following outline, adding a few links.</p>
  325. <div>Going downstream along Cold Spring Creek, Hot Springs Creek and Montecito Creek (which the others feed), gone are—</div>
  326. <div></div>
  327. <div>
  328. <ol>
  329. <li><a href="">817 Ashley Road</a></li>
  330. <li><a href="">817 Ashley Road (out building)</a></li>
  331. <li>797 Ashley Road</li>
  332. <li><a href="">780 Ashley Road</a>. Amazing architectural treasure that last sold for $12.9 million in ’13.</li>
  333. <li>747 Indian Lane</li>
  334. <li>631 Parra Grande Lane. That&#8217;s the mansion where <a href="">the final scene in Scarface</a> was shot.</li>
  335. <li>590 Meadowood Lane</li>
  336. <li>830 Rockbridge Road</li>
  337. <li>800 Rockbridge Road</li>
  338. <li>790 Rockbridge Road</li>
  339. <li>787 Riven Rock Road B</li>
  340. <li>1261 East Valley Road</li>
  341. <li>1240 East Valley Road A (mansion)</li>
  342. <li>1240 East Valley Road B (out building)</li>
  343. <li>1254 East Valley Drive</li>
  344. <li>1255 East Valley Road</li>
  345. <li>1247 East Valley Road A</li>
  346. <li>1247 East Valley Road B (attached)</li>
  347. <li>1231 East Valley Road A</li>
  348. <li>1231 East Valley Road B (detached)</li>
  349. <li>1231 East Valley Road C (detached)</li>
  350. <li>1221 East Valley Road A</li>
  351. <li>1221 East Valley Road B</li>
  352. <li>369 Hot Springs Road</li>
  353. <li>341 Hot Springs Road A</li>
  354. <li>341 Hot Springs Road B</li>
  355. <li>341 Hot Springs Road C</li>
  356. <li>355 Hot Springs Road</li>
  357. <li>335 Hot Springs Road A</li>
  358. <li>335 Hot Springs Road B</li>
  359. <li>333 Hot Springs Road (Not marked in final map)</li>
  360. <li>341 Hot Springs Road A</li>
  361. <li>341 Hot Springs Road B</li>
  362. <li>341 Hot Springs Road C</li>
  363. <li>340 Hot Springs Road</li>
  364. <li>319 Hot Springs Road</li>
  365. <li>325 Olive Mill Road</li>
  366. <li>285 Olive Mill Road</li>
  367. <li>275 Olive Mill Road</li>
  368. <li>325 Olive Mill Road</li>
  369. <li>220 Olive Mill Road</li>
  370. <li>200 Olive Mill Road</li>
  371. <li>275 Olive Mill Road</li>
  372. <li>180 Olive Mill Road</li>
  373. <li>170 Olive Mill Road</li>
  374. <li>144 Olive Mill Road</li>
  375. <li>137 Olive Mill Road</li>
  376. <li>139 Olive Mill Road</li>
  377. <li>127 Olive Mill Road</li>
  378. <li>196 Santa Elena Lane</li>
  379. <li>192 Santa Elena Lane</li>
  380. <li>179 Santa Isabel Lane</li>
  381. <li>175 Santa Elena Lane</li>
  382. <li>142 Santo Tomas Lane</li>
  383. <li>82 Olive Mill Road</li>
  384. <li>1308 Danielson Road</li>
  385. <li>81 Depot Road</li>
  386. <li>75 Depot Road</li>
  387. </ol>
  388. <div>
  389. <div>Along Oak Creek—</div>
  390. <div></div>
  391. </div>
  392. <ol>
  393. <li>601 San Ysidro Road</li>
  394. <li>560 San Ysidro Road B</li>
  395. </ol>
  396. <div>
  397. <div></div>
  398. <div>Along San Ysidro Creek—</div>
  399. </div>
  400. <div></div>
  401. <div>
  402. <ol class="MailOutline">
  403. <li>953 West Park Lane</li>
  404. <li>941 West Park Lane</li>
  405. <li>931 West park Lane</li>
  406. <li>925 West park Lane</li>
  407. <li>903 West park Lane</li>
  408. <li>893 West park Lane</li>
  409. <li>805 W Park Lane</li>
  410. <li>881 West park Lane</li>
  411. <li>881 West park Lane (separate building, same address)</li>
  412. <li>1689 Mountain Drive</li>
  413. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane C (all the Lane addresses appear to be in San Ysidro Ranch)</li>
  414. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane Cottage B</li>
  415. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane Cottage A</li>
  416. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane Cottage D</li>
  417. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane E</li>
  418. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane F</li>
  419. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane G</li>
  420. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane H</li>
  421. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane I</li>
  422. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane J</li>
  423. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane K</li>
  424. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane L</li>
  425. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane M</li>
  426. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane N</li>
  427. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane O</li>
  428. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane R</li>
  429. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane S</li>
  430. <li>900 San Ysidro Lane T</li>
  431. <li>888 San Ysidro Lane A</li>
  432. <li>888 San Ysidro Lane B</li>
  433. <li>888 San Ysidro Lane C</li>
  434. <li>888 San Ysidro Lane D</li>
  435. <li>888 San Ysidro Lane E</li>
  436. <li>888 San Ysidro Lane F</li>
  437. <li>805 West Park Lane B</li>
  438. <li>799 East Mountain Drive</li>
  439. <li>1801 East Mountain Lane</li>
  440. <li>1807 East Mountain Drive</li>
  441. <li>771 Via Manana Road</li>
  442. <li>899 El Bosque Road</li>
  443. <li>771 Via Manana Road</li>
  444. <li>898 El Bosque Road</li>
  445. <li>800 El Bosque Road A (Casa de Maria)</li>
  446. <li>800 El Bosque Road B (Casa de Maria)</li>
  447. <li>800 El Bosque Road C (Casa de Maria)</li>
  448. <li>559 El Bosque Road (This is between Oak Creek and San Ysidro Creek)</li>
  449. <li>680 Randall Road</li>
  450. <li>670 Randall Road</li>
  451. <li>660 Randall Road</li>
  452. <li>650 Randall Road</li>
  453. <li>640 Randall Road</li>
  454. <li>630 Randall Road</li>
  455. <li>619 Randall Road</li>
  456. <li>1685 East Valley Road A</li>
  457. <li>1685 East Valley Road B</li>
  458. <li>1685 East Valley Road C</li>
  459. <li>1696 East Valley Road</li>
  460. <li>1760 Valley Road A</li>
  461. <li>1725 Valley Road A</li>
  462. <li>1705 Glenn Oaks Drive A</li>
  463. <li>1705 Glen Oaks Drive B</li>
  464. <li>1710 Glen Oaks Drive A</li>
  465. <li>1790 Glen Oaks Drive A</li>
  466. <li>1701 Glen Oaks Drive A</li>
  467. <li>1705 Glen Oaks Drive A</li>
  468. <li>1705 East Valley Road A</li>
  469. <li>1705 East Valley Road B</li>
  470. <li>1705 East Valley Road C</li>
  471. <li>1780 Glen Oaks Drive N/A</li>
  472. <li>
  473. <div>1780 Glen Oaks Drive (one on top of the other)</div>
  474. </li>
  475. <li>1774 Glen Oaks Drive</li>
  476. <li>1707 East Valley Road A</li>
  477. <li>1685 East Valley Road C</li>
  478. <li>1709 East Valley Road</li>
  479. <li>1709 East Valley Road B</li>
  480. <li>1775 Glen Oaks Drive A</li>
  481. <li>1775 Glen Oaks Drive B</li>
  482. <li>1779 Glen Oaks Drive A</li>
  483. <li>1779 Glen Oaks Drive B</li>
  484. <li>1779 Glen Oaks Drive C</li>
  485. <li>1781 Glen Oaks Drive A</li>
  486. <li>1711 East Valley Road (This and what follow are adjacent to Oprah)</li>
  487. <li>1715 East Valley Road A</li>
  488. <li>1715 East Valley Road B</li>
  489. <li>1719 East Valley Road</li>
  490. <li>1721 East Valley Road A (This might survive. See <a href="">Dan Seibert&#8217;s comment</a> below)</li>
  491. <li>1721 East Valley Road B (This might survive. See <a href="">Dan Seibert&#8217;s comment</a> below)</li>
  492. <li>1721 East Valley Road C (This might survive. See <a href="">Dan Seibert&#8217;s comment</a> below)</li>
  493. <li>1694 San Leandro Lane A</li>
  494. <li>1694 San Leandro Lane D</li>
  495. <li>1690 San Leandro Lane C</li>
  496. <li>1690 San Leandro Lane A</li>
  497. <li>1694 San Leandro Lane B</li>
  498. <li>1696 San Leandro Lane</li>
  499. <li>1710 San Leandro Lane A</li>
  500. <li>1710 San Leandro Lane B</li>
  501. <li>190 Tiburon Bay Lane</li>
  502. <li>193 Tiburon Bay Lane A</li>
  503. <li>193 Tiburon Bay Lane B</li>
  504. <li>193 Tiburon Bay Lane C</li>
  505. <li>197 Tiburon Bay Lane A</li>
  506. </ol>
  507. </div>
  508. <div></div>
  509. <div>
  510. <div>Along Buena Vista Creek—</div>
  511. </div>
  512. </div>
  513. <div></div>
  514. <div>
  515. <ol class="MailOutline">
  516. <li>923 Buena Vista Avenue</li>
  517. <li>1984 Tollis Avenue A</li>
  518. <li>1984 Tollis Avenue B</li>
  519. <li>1984 Tollis Avenue C</li>
  520. <li>670 Lilac Drive</li>
  521. <li>658 Lilac Drive</li>
  522. <li>2075 Alisos Drive (marked earlier, but I don&#8217;t see it in the final map)</li>
  523. <li>627 Oak Grove Lane</li>
  524. </ol>
  525. </div>
  526. <div>Along Romero Creek—</div>
  527. <div></div>
  528. <div>
  529. <ol class="MailOutline">
  530. <li>1000 Romero Canyon Road</li>
  531. <li>1050 Romero Canyon Road</li>
  532. <li>860 Romero Canyon Road</li>
  533. <li>768 Winding Creek Lane</li>
  534. <li>745 Winding Creek Lane</li>
  535. <li>744 Winding Creek Lane</li>
  536. <li>2281 Featherhill Avenue B</li>
  537. </ol>
  538. </div>
  539. <p>Below Toro Canyon—</p>
  540. <ol>
  541. <li>876 Toro Canyon Road</li>
  542. <li>572 Toro Canyon Park Road</li>
  543. </ol>
  544. <p>Along Arroyo Paredon, between Summerland and Carpinteria, not far east of the Toro Canyon—</p>
  545. <ol>
  546. <li>2000 Cravens Lane</li>
  547. </ol>
  548. <p>Ten flanking Highway 101 by the ocean are marked as damaged, including four on Padero Lane.</p>
  549. <p>When I add those up, I get <span style="text-decoration: line-through">142</span> <span style="text-decoration: line-through">163*</span> 178† among the destroyed alone.</p>
  550. <p>[* This is on January 17, when the map says it is 95% complete. All the additions appear to be along San Ysidro Creek, especially on San Ysidro Lane, which I believe is mostly in San Ysidro Ranch. Apparently nearly the whole place has been destroyed. Adjectives such as &#8220;lovely&#8221; fail to describe what it was.]</p>
  551. <p>[† This is on January 18, when the map is complete. I&#8217;ll need to go over it again, because there are subtractions as well as additions.]</p>
  552. <p>Now let&#8217;s go back and look more closely at this again from the geological perspective.</p>
  553. <p>What we see is a town revised by nature in full disregard for what was there before—and in full obedience to the pattern of alluvial deposition on the flanks of all fresh mountains that erode down almost as fast as they go up.</p>
  554. <p>This same pattern accounts for much of California, including all of the South Coast and the Los Angeles basin.</p>
  555. <p>To see what I mean, hover your mind above Atlanta and look north at the southern Appalachians. Then dial history back five million years. What you see won&#8217;t look much different. Do the same above Los Angeles or San Francisco and nothing will be the same, or even close.</p>
  556. <p>Five million years is about 1/1000th of Earth&#8217;s history. If that history were compressed to a day, California showed up in less than the last forty seconds. In that short time California has formed and re-formed constantly, and is among the most provisional landscapes in the world. All of it is coming up, sliding down, spreading out and rearranging itself, and will continue doing so through all the future that&#8217;s worth bothering to foresee. Debris flows are among its most casual methods. (By the way, I am writing this in a San Marino house that sits atop the <a href="">Raymond Fault</a> scarp, which on the surface takes the form of a forty-foot hill. The suite of rock under the bottom of that hill is displaced 17,000 feet from the identical suite under the base at the top. Many earthquakes produced that displacement, and erosion has buffed 16,960 feet of rock and soil off the top.)</p>
  557. <p>So we might start to look at the Santa Ynez Mountains behind Santa Barbara and Montecito not as a stable land form but rather as a volcano of mud and rock that&#8217;s sure to go off every few dozen or hundreds of years—and will possibly deliver a repeat performance if we get more heavy rains and there is plenty of debris left to flow out of mountain areas adjacent to those that flowed on January 9th. If there&#8217;s a lot of it, why even bother saving Montecito?</p>
  558. <p>Here&#8217;s why:</p>
  559. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11379" src="" alt="" width="1000" height="429" srcset=" 1000w, 300w, 768w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" /></p>
  560. <p>One enters the Engineering building at the University of Wyoming under that stone plaque, which celebrates what may be our species&#8217; greatest achievement and conceit: controlling nature. (It&#8217;s also why geology is starting to call our present epoch <a href="">the anthropocene</a>.)</p>
  561. <p>This also forecasts exactly what we will do for Montecito. In the long run we&#8217;ll lose to nature. But meanwhile se strive on, especially here in California.</p>
  562. <p>In our new strivings, it will help to look toward other places in California that are more experienced with debris flows, because they happen almost constantly there. The largest of those by far is Los Angeles, which has placed catch basins at the mouths of all the large canyons coming out of the San Gabriel Mountains. Most of these dwarf the ones above Montecito. All resemble empty reservoirs. Some are actually quarries for rocks and gravel that roll in constantly from the eroding creek beds above. None are pretty.</p>
  563. <p>To understand the challenge involved, it helps enormously to read John McPhee&#8217;s classic book <em>The Control of Nature</em>, which took its title from the inscription above. Fortunately, you can start right now by reading the first essay in a pair that became the relevant chapter of that book. It&#8217;s free on the Web and called <a href="">Los Angeles Against the Mountains I</a>. Here&#8217;s an excerpt:</p>
  564. <blockquote><p>Debris flows amass in stream valleys and more or less resemble fresh concrete. They consist of water mixed with a good deal of solid material, most of which is above sand size. Some of it is Chevrolet size. Boulders bigger than cars ride long distances in debris flows. Boulders grouped like fish eggs pour downhill in debris flows. The dark material coming toward the Genofiles was not only full of boulders; it was so full of automobiles it was like bread dough mixed with raisins.</p></blockquote>
  565. <p>The Genofiles were a family that barely survived a debris flow on a slope of Verdugo Mountain, overlooking Los Angeles from Glendale. Here&#8217;s another story, about another site not far away:</p>
  566. <blockquote><p>The snout of the debris flow was twenty feet high, tapering behind. Debris flows sometimes ooze along, and sometimes move as fast as the fastest river rapids. The huge dark snout was moving nearly five hundred feet a minute and the rest of the flow behind was coming twice as fast, making roll waves as it piled forward against itself—this great slug, as geologists would describe it, this discrete slug, this heaving violence of wet cement. Already included in the debris were propane tanks, outbuildings, picnic tables, canyon live oaks, alders, sycamores, cottonwoods, a Lincoln Continental, an Oldsmobile, and countless boulders five feet thick. All this was spread wide a couple of hundred feet, and as the debris flow went through Hidden Springs it tore out more trees, picked up house trailers and more cars and more boulders, and knocked Gabe Hinterberg’s lodge completely off its foundation. Mary and Cal Drake were standing in their living room when a wall came off. “We got outside somehow,” he said later. “I just got away. She was trying to follow me. Evidently, her feet slipped out from under her. She slid right down into the main channel.” The family next door were picked up and pushed against their own ceiling. Two were carried away. Whole houses were torn loose with people inside them. A house was ripped in half. A bridge was obliterated. A large part of town was carried a mile downstream and buried in the reservoir behind Big Tujunga Dam. Thirteen people were part of the debris. Most of the bodies were never found.</p></blockquote>
  567. <p>This is close to exactly what happened to Montecito in the wee hours of January 9th.</p>
  568. <p>As of now the 8000-plus residents of Montecito are evacuated and forbidden to return for at least another two weeks—and maybe much longer if officials declare the hills above town ready to flow again.</p>
  569. <p>Highway 101—one of just two major freeways between Southern and Northern California, is closed indefinitely, because it is now itself a stream bed, and re-landscaping the area around it, to get water going where it should, will take some time. So will fixing the road, and perhaps bridges as well.</p>
  570. <p>Meanwhile getting in and out of Santa Barbara from east of Montecito by car requires a detour akin to driving from Manhattan to Queens by way of Vermont. And there have already been accidents, I&#8217;ve heard, on highway 166, which is the main detour road. We&#8217;ll be taking that detour or one like it on Thursday when we head home via Los Angeles after we fly there from New York, where I&#8217;m packing up now.</p>
  571. <p>Expect this post to grow and change.</p>
  572. <p>Bonus links:</p>
  573. <ul>
  574. <li><a href="">Unofficial Montecito disaster map</a>, via <a href="">@AI6YRham (Benjamin F. Kuo).</a></li>
  575. <li><a href="">Outstanding animations showing how California was just recently assembled.</a></li>
  576. <li>Independent: <a href="">After the Mudslides, What Does the Next Rain Hold for Montecito?</a><br />
  577. Thomas Fire Was Just Part One of the Rain Season (best piece I&#8217;ve read yet on the geology of the matter).</li>
  578. <li><a href=""> explains debris flows.</a></li>
  579. <li><a href="">KEYT Map Rom.</a></li>
  580. <li>LA Times: <a href="">Who they were: The victims of the Montecito mudslides.</a></li>
  581. <li>LA Tmes: <a href="">The California deal: Accepting the calamity along with the splendor.</a></li>
  583. <li>KEYT: <a href="">San Ysidro Ranch and Riven Rock Ruined in Thomas Fire Mudflows.</a></li>
  584. <li>KSBY: <a href="">An aerial view of Romero Canyon, Glen Oaks and other damage.</a></li>
  585. <li>NASA: <a href="">An &#8220;after&#8221; photo from space  shows the debris flows, if you look closely</a>. <a href="">Here&#8217;s another</a>.</li>
  586. <li>UCSB in 2001: <a href="">UCSB Scientists Study Ancient Debris Flows.</a></li>
  587. <li><a href="">A CNN before-after shot.</a></li>
  588. <li><a href="">Neighbors Ellen and Oprah Facetime on Ellen&#8217;s show</a>. Non-trivial, actually. They&#8217;re working to help, and that&#8217;s good.</li>
  589. <li><a href="">Edhat</a>, <a href="">Noozhawk</a>, <a href="">KCLU</a>, <a href="">@MontecitoFire</a>, <a href="">@CountyOfSB</a>, <a href="">@Cal_Fire</a>, <a href="">@K38rescue</a>, <a href="">@SBSheriff</a></li>
  590. </ul>
  591. <p>&nbsp;</p>
  592. ]]></content:encoded>
  593. <wfw:commentRss></wfw:commentRss>
  594. <slash:comments>61</slash:comments>
  595. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11359</post-id> </item>
  596. <item>
  597. <title>Doing the after math</title>
  598. <link></link>
  599. <pubDate>Sun, 17 Dec 2017 20:18:52 +0000</pubDate>
  600. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  601. <category><![CDATA[fire]]></category>
  602. <category><![CDATA[Santa Barbara]]></category>
  603. <category><![CDATA["Santa Barbara"]]></category>
  604. <category><![CDATA[ThomasFire]]></category>
  606. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  607. <description><![CDATA[When I flew out of California on the 14th, this blog was still working. When I went here to post about the Thomas Fire on 15th, it wasn&#8217;t. (Somebody later told me Harvard was moving servers around, so maybe that was it.) But then the fire looked to be under control. It wasn&#8217;t. On the [&#8230;]]]></description>
  608. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11346" src="" alt="" width="1262" height="1213" srcset=" 1262w, 300w, 768w, 1024w, 312w" sizes="(max-width: 1262px) 100vw, 1262px" /></p>
  609. <p>When I flew out of California on the 14th, this blog was still working. When I went here to post about the Thomas Fire on 15th, it wasn&#8217;t. (Somebody later told me Harvard was moving servers around, so maybe that was it.) But then the fire looked to be under control. It wasn&#8217;t.</p>
  610. <p>On the 16th it blew hard down across the mountain flank of Montecito and Santa Barbara, straight toward our house.</p>
  611. <p>So I posted reports, throughout the day, on the #ThomasFire, which is still burning—and will continue burn after it becomes the largest in California history, which will likely happen soon—over at <a href="">Doc.Blog</a>, which has the old-fashioned blogging virtue of being extremely easy to post on and to edit in real time, and in a WYSIWYG way.</p>
  612. <p>Here are my posts there, in chronological order:</p>
  613. <p><a href="">#ThomasFire 2017_12_16 9:35am PST</a></p>
  614. <p><a href="">#ThomasFire 2017_12_16 9:55am PST</a></p>
  615. <p><a href="">#ThomasFire 2017_12_16 10:37am PST</a></p>
  616. <p><a href="">#ThomasFire 2017_12_16 11:26am PST</a></p>
  617. <p><a href="">#ThomasFire 2017_12_16 11:58am PST</a></p>
  618. <p><a href="">#ThomasFire 2017_12_16 1:09pm PST</a></p>
  619. <p><a href="">#ThomasFire 2017_12_16 6:02pm PST</a></p>
  620. <p><a href="">#ThomasFire 2017_12_16 8:54pm PST</a></p>
  621. <p>As you can see in the two screenshots above (taken from <a href="">this map</a>), the fire is still active, but the red dots are fewer, and not right next to civilization.</p>
  622. <p>There is a lot of finishing work for the firefighters to do. Considering the size of the fire, and the rocky and wooded locations of so many homes that they saved, we owe them largest possible tip of the largest possible hat. If the fire had its way, the city would certainly have been ruined. And our house would very likely be gone.</p>
  623. <p>There are two more stories that need to be told here.</p>
  624. <p>One is how, exactly, this fire was fought. I gather that there was none other like it in the country&#8217;s history, and that there is a great deal ordinary folks don&#8217;t know about how fires are fought now, especially in &#8220;urban interfaces&#8221; (as the pros call them) like the ones we have here.</p>
  625. <p>The other is about the coal in Santa Barbara&#8217;s stocking this Christmas. Already the most common sign on storefronts downtown was &#8220;For Lease.&#8221; State Street, the retail and cultural artery through the city&#8217;s heart, seemed half abandoned well before the fire and almost completely abandoned when the fire reached its worst point yesterday. Now, with most of the population evacuated, it seems in places like most of the remaining customers are off-duty fire personnel. It&#8217;s hard to imagine how, with both residents and visitors staying away, economic damage will not be very large.</p>
  626. <p>I&#8217;m interested in any of the research and writing that may be happening around that right now.</p>
  627. ]]></content:encoded>
  628. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11345</post-id> </item>
  629. <item>
  630. <title>The real problem is Decoy News (and decoy content of all kinds)—and the platforms can&#8217;t fix it</title>
  631. <link></link>
  632. <comments></comments>
  633. <pubDate>Thu, 14 Dec 2017 16:48:39 +0000</pubDate>
  634. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  635. <category><![CDATA[advertising]]></category>
  636. <category><![CDATA[fire]]></category>
  637. <category><![CDATA[Internet]]></category>
  638. <category><![CDATA[Journalism]]></category>
  639. <category><![CDATA[marketing]]></category>
  640. <category><![CDATA[Nature]]></category>
  641. <category><![CDATA[problems]]></category>
  642. <category><![CDATA[adtech]]></category>
  643. <category><![CDATA[decoy news]]></category>
  644. <category><![CDATA[GDPR]]></category>
  646. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  647. <description><![CDATA[The term &#8220;fake news&#8221; was a casual phrase until it became clear to news media that a flood of it had been deployed during last year&#8217;s presidential election in the U.S. Starting in November 2016, fake news was the subject of strong and well-researched coverage by NPR (here and here), Buzzfeed, CBS (here and here), [&#8230;]]]></description>
  648. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11333" src="" alt="" width="1024" height="618" srcset=" 1024w, 300w, 768w, 497w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
  649. <p>The term &#8220;<a href="">fake news</a>&#8221; was a casual phrase until it became clear to news media that a flood of it had been deployed during last year&#8217;s presidential election in the U.S. Starting in November 2016, fake news was the subject of strong and well-researched coverage by NPR (<a href="">here</a> and <a href="">here</a>), <a href="">Buzzfeed</a>, CBS (<a href="">here</a> and <a href="">here</a>), <a href="">Wired</a>, <a href="">the BBC</a>, <a href="">Snopes</a>, CNN (<a href="">here</a> and <a href="">here</a>), <a href="">Rolling Stone</a> and others. It thus became a thing&#8230;</p>
  650. <p><a href=";q=fake%20news"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11334" src="" alt="" width="885" height="328" srcset=" 885w, 300w, 768w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 885px) 100vw, 885px" /></a>&#8230; until Donald Trump started using it as an epithet for news media he didn&#8217;t like. He did that first during <a href="">a press conference</a> on February 16, and then the next day <a href="">on Twitter</a>:</p>
  651. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11336" src="" alt="" width="551" height="238" srcset=" 551w, 300w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 551px) 100vw, 551px" /></p>
  652. <p>And <a href=";q=%22fake%20news%22%20from%3Arealdonaldtrump&amp;src=typd&amp;lang=en">he hasn&#8217;t stopped</a>. To Trump, any stick he can whup non-Fox mainstream media with is a good stick, and FAKE NEWS is the best.</p>
  653. <p>So that pretty much took &#8220;fake news,&#8221; as a literal thing, off the table for everyone other than Trump and his amen chorus.</p>
  654. <p>So, since we need a substitute, I suggest <strong><em>decoy news</em></strong>. Because that&#8217;s what we&#8217;re talking about: fabricated news meant to look like the real thing.</p>
  655. <p>But the problem is bigger than news alone, because advertising-funded media have been in the decoy business since forever. The difference in today&#8217;s digital world is that it&#8217;s a lot easier to fabricate a decoy story than to research and produce a real one—and it pays just as well, or even better, because overhead in the decoy business rounds to nothing. Why hire a person to do an algorithm&#8217;s job?</p>
  656. <p>In the content business the commercial Web has become, algorithms are now used to target both stories and the advertising that pays for them.</p>
  657. <p>This is why, on what we used to call the editorial side of publishing (interesting trend <a href=";q=editorial">here</a>), journalism as a purpose has been displaced by content production.</p>
  658. <p>We can see one tragic result in a <a href=""><em>New York Times</em></a> story titled <a href="">In New Jersey, Only a Few Media Watchdogs Are Left</a>, by David Chen (<a href="">@davidwchen</a>). In it he reports that &#8220;The Star-Ledger, which almost halved its newsroom eight years ago, has mutated into a digital media company requiring most reporters to reach an ever-increasing quota of page views as part of their compensation.&#8221;</p>
  659. <p>This calls to mind how Saturday Night Live in 1977 introduced <a href="">the Blues Brothers</a> in <a href="">a skit</a> where <a href="">Paul Shaffer</a>, playing rock impresario <a href="">Don Kirshner</a>, proudly said the Brothers were &#8220;no longer an authentic blues act, but have managed to become a viable commercial product.&#8221;</p>
  660. <p>To be viably commercial today, all media need to be in the content production business, paid for by adtech, which is entirely driven by algorithms informed by surveillance-gathered personal data. The result looks like this:</p>
  661. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11338" src="" alt="" width="800" height="618" srcset=" 800w, 300w, 768w, 388w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></p>
  662. <p>To fully grok how we got here, it is essential to understand the difference between advertising and direct marketing, and how nearly all of online advertising is now the latter. I describe the shift from former to latter in <a href="">Separating Advertising&#8217;s Wheat and Chaff</a>:</p>
  663. <blockquote>
  664. <p id="9398" class="graf graf--p graf-after--figure">Advertising used to be simple. You knew what it was, and where it came from.</p>
  665. <p id="4153" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">Whether it was an ad you heard on the radio, saw in a magazine or spotted on a billboard, you knew it came straight from the advertiser through that medium. The only intermediary was an advertising agency, if the advertiser bothered with one.</p>
  666. <p id="5a1b" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">Advertising also wasn’t personal. Two reasons for that.</p>
  667. <p id="240e" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">First, it couldn’t be. A billboard was for everybody who drove past it. A TV ad was for everybody watching the show. Yes, there was targeting, but it was always to populations, not to individuals.</p>
  668. <p id="063f" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">Second, the whole idea behind advertising was to send one message to lots of people, whether or not the people seeing or hearing the ad would ever use the product. The fact that lots of sports-watchers don’t drink beer or drive trucks was beside the point, which was making brands sponsoring a game familiar to everybody watching it.</p>
  669. <p id="5942" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">In their landmark study, “The Waste in Advertising is the Part that Works” (<em class="markup--em markup--p-em">Journal of Advertising Research</em>, December, 2004, pp. 375–390), Tim Ambler and E. Ann Hollier say <span class="markup--quote markup--p-quote is-other">brand advertising does more than signal a product message; it also gives evidence that the parent company has worth and substance, because it can afford to spend the money. Thus branding is about </span><span class="markup--quote markup--p-quote is-other">sending a strong <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" href="" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noopener">economic signal</a> along with a strong creative one.</span></p>
  670. <p id="be24" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">Plain old brand advertising also paid for the media we enjoyed. Still does, in fact. And much more. Without brand advertising, pro sports stars wouldn’t be getting <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" href="" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">eight</a> and <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" href="" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">nine</a> figure contracts.</p>
  671. <p id="4594" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">But advertising today is also digital. That fact makes advertising much more data-driven, tracking-based and personal. Nearly all the buzz and science in advertising today flies around the data-driven, tracking-based stuff generally called <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">adtech</em>. This form of digital advertising has turned into a massive industry, driven by an <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" href="" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">assumption</a> that the best advertising is also the most targeted, the most real-time, the most data-driven, the most personal — and that old-fashioned brand advertising is hopelessly retro.</p>
  672. <p id="25a7" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">In terms of actual value to the marketplace, however, the old-fashioned stuff is wheat and the new-fashioned stuff is chaff. In fact, the chaff was only grafted on recently.</p>
  673. <p id="7be4" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">See, adtech did not spring from the loins of Madison Avenue. Instead its direct ancestor is what’s called <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">direct response marketing</em>. Before that, it was called <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">direct mail</em>, or <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">junk mail</em>. In metrics, methods and manners, it is little different from its closest relative, spam.</p>
  674. <p id="6dc1" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">Direct response marketing has always wanted to get personal, has always been data-driven, has never attracted the creative talent for which Madison Avenue has been rightly famous. <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" href=";ia=" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Look up <em class="markup--em markup--p-em">best ads of all time</em></a> and you’ll find nothing but wheat. No direct response or adtech postings, mailings or ad placements on phones or websites.</p>
  675. <p id="db19" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">Yes, brand advertising has always been data-driven too, but the data that mattered was how many people were exposed to an ad, not how many clicked on one — or whether you, personally, did anything.</p>
  676. <p id="cad5" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">And yes, a lot of brand advertising is annoying. But at least we know it pays for the TV programs we watch and the publications we read. Wheat-producing advertisers are called “sponsors” for a reason.</p>
  677. <p id="8d29" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">So how did direct response marketing get to be called advertising ? By looking the same. Online it’s hard to tell the difference between a wheat ad and a chaff one.</p>
  678. <p id="d73c" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">Remember the movie “<a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" href="" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Invasion of the Body Snatchers</a>?” (Or the <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" href="" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">remake by the same name</a>?) Same thing here. Madison Avenue fell asleep, direct response marketing ate its brain, and it woke up as an alien replica of itself.</p>
  679. </blockquote>
  680. <p>It is now an article of faith within today&#8217;s brain-snatched advertising business that the best ad is the most targeted and personalized ad. Worse, almost all the journalists covering the advertising business assume the same thing. And why wouldn&#8217;t they, given that this is how advertising is now done online, especially by the <a href="">Facebook-Google duopoly</a>.</p>
  681. <p>And here is why those two platforms can&#8217;t fix it: both have AI machines built to give millions of advertising customers ways to target the well-studied eyeballs of billions of people, using countless characterizations of those eyeballs.In fact, the only (and highly ironic) way they can police bad acting on their platforms is by <a href="">hiring people</a> who do nothing but look for that bad acting.</p>
  682. <p>One fix is regulation. We now have that, hugely, with the <a href="">General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)</a>. It&#8217;s an EU law, but it protects the privacy of EU citizens everywhere—with potentially massive fines. In spirit, if not also in letter (which the platforms are struggling mightily to weasel around), the GDPR outlaws tracking people like tagged animals online. I&#8217;ve <a href="">called the GDPR an extinction event</a> for adtech, and the main reason brands (including the media kind) <a href="">need to fire it</a>.</p>
  683. <p>The other main fixes begin on the personal side. Don Marti (@dmarti) <a href="">tweets</a>, &#8220;Build technologies to implement people&#8217;s norms on sharing their personal data, and you&#8217;ll get technologies to help high-reputation sites build ad-supported business models ABSOLUTELY FREE!&#8221; Those models are all advertising wheat, not adtech chaff.</p>
  684. <p>Now here&#8217;s the key: <strong>what we need most are single and simple ways for each of us to manage all our dealings with other entities online</strong>. Having separate means, each provided by the dozens or hundreds of sites and services we each deal with, all with different UIs, login/password gauntlets, forms to fill out, meaningless privacy policies and for-lawyers-only terms of service, cannot work. All that shit may give those companies scale across many consumers, but every one of them only adds to those consumers&#8217; relationship overhead. I explain how this will work in <a href="">Giving Customers Scale</a>, plus many other posts, columns and essays compiled in my <a href="">People vs. Adtech</a> series, which is on its way to becoming a book. I&#8217;d say more about all of it, but need to catch a plane. See you on the other coast.</p>
  685. <p>Meanwhile, the least we can do is start talking about decoy news and the business model that pays for it.</p>
  686. <p>[Later&#8230;] I&#8217;m on the other coast now, but preoccupied by the #ThomasFire threatening our home in Santa Barbara. Since this blog appears to be mostly down, I&#8217;m writing about it at</p>
  687. <p>&nbsp;</p>
  688. <p>&nbsp;</p>
  689. <p>&nbsp;</p>
  690. ]]></content:encoded>
  691. <wfw:commentRss></wfw:commentRss>
  692. <slash:comments>3</slash:comments>
  693. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11316</post-id> </item>
  694. <item>
  695. <title>An evacuated view on the #ThomasFire</title>
  696. <link></link>
  697. <pubDate>Thu, 14 Dec 2017 02:38:24 +0000</pubDate>
  698. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  699. <category><![CDATA[Broadcasting]]></category>
  700. <category><![CDATA[data]]></category>
  701. <category><![CDATA[Family]]></category>
  702. <category><![CDATA[Geography]]></category>
  703. <category><![CDATA[Life]]></category>
  704. <category><![CDATA[Photography]]></category>
  705. <category><![CDATA[problems]]></category>
  706. <category><![CDATA[ThomasFire]]></category>
  707. <category><![CDATA[Travel]]></category>
  708. <category><![CDATA[tv]]></category>
  709. <category><![CDATA[weather]]></category>
  710. <category><![CDATA[wildfire]]></category>
  712. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  713. <description><![CDATA[Here&#8217;s the latest satellite fire detection data, restricted to just the last twelve hours of the Thomas Fire, mapped on Google Earth Pro:That&#8217;s labeled 1830 Mountain Standard Time (MST), or 5:30pm Pacific, about half an hour ago as I write this. And here are the evacuation areas: Our home is in the orange Voluntary Evacuation [&#8230;]]]></description>
  714. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s the latest satellite fire detection data, restricted to just the last twelve hours of the Thomas Fire, mapped on Google Earth Pro:<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11320" src="" alt="" width="1069" height="684" srcset=" 1069w, 300w, 768w, 1024w, 469w" sizes="(max-width: 1069px) 100vw, 1069px" />That&#8217;s labeled 1830 Mountain Standard Time (MST), or 5:30pm Pacific, about half an hour ago as I write this.</p>
  715. <p>And <a href=";ll=34.45857889167382%2C-119.59535499018955&amp;z=12">here are the evacuation areas</a>:</p>
  716. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11321" src="" alt="" width="1017" height="480" srcset=" 1017w, 300w, 768w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 1017px) 100vw, 1017px" /></p>
  717. <p>Our home is in the orange Voluntary Evacuation area. So we made a round trip from LA to prepare the house as best we could, gather some stuff and go. <a href="">Here&#8217;s a photo album of the trip</a>, and one of the last sights we saw on our way out of town:</p>
  718. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11323" src="" alt="" width="800" height="534" srcset=" 800w, 300w, 768w, 449w" sizes="(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></p>
  719. <p>This, I believe, was a fire break created on the up-slope side of Toro Canyon. Whether purely preventive or not, it was very impressive.</p>
  720. <p>And <a href="">here is a view of the whole burn area</a>, which stretches more than forty miles from west to east (or from Montecito to Fillmore):</p>
  721. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11327" src="" alt="" width="1263" height="736" srcset=" 1263w, 300w, 768w, 1024w, 500w" sizes="(max-width: 1263px) 100vw, 1263px" /></p>
  722. <p>Here you can see how there is no fresh fire activity near Lake Casitas and Carpinteria, which is cool (at least relatively). You can also see how Ojai and Carpinteria were saved, how Santa Barbara is threatened, and how there are at least five separate fires around the perimeter. Three of those are in the back country, and I suspect the idea is to let those burn until they hit natural fire breaks or the wind shifts and the fires get blown back on their own burned areas and fizzle out there.</p>
  723. <p>The main area of concern is at the west end of the fire, above Santa Barbara, in what they call the front country: the slope on the ocean&#8217;s side of the Santa Ynez Mountains, which run as a long and steep spine, rising close to 4000 feet high in the area we care about here. (It&#8217;s higher farther west.)</p>
  724. <p>This afternoon I caught a community meeting on <a href="">KEYT</a>, Santa Barbara&#8217;s TV station, which has been very aggressive and responsible in reporting on the fire. I can&#8217;t find a recording of that meeting now on the station&#8217;s website, but I am watching the station&#8217;s live 6pm news broadcast now, devoted to a news conference at the Ventura County Fairgrounds. (Even though I&#8217;m currently at a house near Los Angeles, I can watch our TV set top box remotely through a system called <a href="">Dish Anywhere</a>. Hats off to <a href="">Dish Network</a> for providing that ability. In addition to being cool, it&#8217;s exceptionally handy for evacuated residents whose homes still have electricity and a good Internet connection. I thank <a href="">Southern California Edison</a> and <a href="">Cox</a> for those.)</p>
  725. <p>On KEYT, Mark Brown of <a href="">@Cal_Fire</a> just spoke about Plans A, B and C, one or more of which will be chosen based on how the weather moves. Plan C is the scariest (and he called it that), because it involves setting fire lines close to homes, intentionally scorching several thousand acres to create an already-burned break, to stop the fire. &#8220;The vegetation will be removed before the fire has a chance to take it out, the way it wants to take it out,&#8221; he says.</p>
  726. <p>Okay, that briefing just ended. I&#8217;ll leave it there.</p>
  727. <p>So everybody reading this knows, <strong>we are fine, and don&#8217;t need to be at the house while this is going on</strong>. We also have great faith that 8000 fire fighting personnel and all their support systems will do the job and save our South Coast communities. What they&#8217;ve done so far has been nothing short of amazing, given the enormous geographical extent of this fire, the exceptionally rugged nature of the terrain, the record dryness of the vegetation, and other disadvantages. A huge hat tip to them.</p>
  728. <p>&nbsp;</p>
  729. <p>&nbsp;</p>
  730. ]]></content:encoded>
  731. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11319</post-id> </item>
  732. <item>
  733. <title>#ThomasFire Tuesday</title>
  734. <link></link>
  735. <pubDate>Tue, 12 Dec 2017 22:49:55 +0000</pubDate>
  736. <dc:creator><![CDATA[Doc Searls]]></dc:creator>
  737. <category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
  739. <guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
  740. <description><![CDATA[Here is the extent of the Thomas Fire, via VIIRS readings going back a week: Here are the active margins of the fire alone. The distance from one end to the other is about 40 miles: We also see it&#8217;s eleven or twelve separate fires at this point. The ones happening in the back country [&#8230;]]]></description>
  741. <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here is the extent of the Thomas Fire, via <a href="">VIIRS</a> readings going back a week:</p>
  742. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11304" src="" alt="" width="1094" height="676" srcset=" 1094w, 300w, 768w, 1024w, 486w" sizes="(max-width: 1094px) 100vw, 1094px" /></p>
  743. <p>Here are the active margins of the fire alone. The distance from one end to the other is about 40 miles:</p>
  744. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11305" src="" alt="" width="1094" height="676" srcset=" 1094w, 300w, 768w, 1024w, 486w" sizes="(max-width: 1094px) 100vw, 1094px" /></p>
  745. <p>We also see it&#8217;s eleven or twelve separate fires at this point. The ones happening in the back country matter less than the ones encroaching on civilization. Here&#8217;s the corner we&#8217;re most concerned with, since we have a house in Santa Barbara:</p>
  746. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11306" src="" alt="" width="1094" height="676" srcset=" 1094w, 300w, 768w, 1024w, 486w" sizes="(max-width: 1094px) 100vw, 1094px" /></p>
  747. <p>That&#8217;s what&#8217;s burning now.</p>
  748. <p>According to&nbsp;<a href="" title="http://Windy. " target="_blank"></a>, the wind is a light breeze to the east-southeast, meaning back toward itself. This is good.</p>
  749. <p><a href="">Here&#8217;s a photo set</a> I shot driving to and from our place in Santa Barbara yesterday. It was pretty dramatic last night as we crept on a side road, avoiding the 101 traffic gawking its way past Summerland:</p>
  750. <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11307" src="" alt="" width="1032" height="681" srcset=" 1032w, 300w, 768w, 1024w, 455w" sizes="(max-width: 1032px) 100vw, 1032px" /></p>
  751. <p>I&#8217;m not sure if some of those were back-fires or not. Details welcome.</p>
  752. ]]></content:encoded>
  753. <post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">11301</post-id> </item>
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